WPAC: DAMREY - Dissipated

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#61 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:02 am

85 knots here.

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO A
LARGE CENTRALIZED CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031040Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS BASED ON IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA,
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A VERY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 28W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TY
DAMREY HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH COASTAL VIETNAM, ANY ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED AS THE LAND INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM AROUND TAU 12. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE INDO-CHINA PENINSULA WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. TY DAMREY WILL
TRACK BACK OVER WATER INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND PRIOR TO TAU 48 AS
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. INCREASED VWS AND POOR OUTFLOW WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#62 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:17 am

Vietnam also faces a huge rainfall threat from the combined effects of Damrey and the seasonal NE winds/monsoon... Many areas in Central Vietnam could see rainfall accumulations of AT LEAST 200mm(8in) during the weekend(Saturday-Sunday)...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#63 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:50 am

euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Really JTWC?? Lowering actual advisory contradicts with the current trends in satellite estimates and structural analysis


They increased the intensity from 75 Cat 1 to 85 knots Cat 2.

JMA is still stuck with 70 knots 10 min with no reasoning.

JTWC lowered it to 80 kts in their actual advisory. BT and reasoning showed 85. JMA and JTWC are both wrong in this case. Possibly, 90 kts would be the best estimate for Typhoon Damrey given the current satellite presentation and developments of today

Oh, and stop acting like it's always JMA who commits mistakes
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#64 Postby NotoSans » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:58 am

Looks like a high-end T4.5 or borderline T5.0 to me. Both JMA and JTWC estimates seem fine.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#65 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:43 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#66 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:14 pm

Image
mw 3hrs ago

Image
it's now making landfall
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#67 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:11 pm

Made landfall just to the north of Nha Trang city in Khan hHoa province, shortly before 00Z(7am Vietnam time) this Saturday...

Image


AMSU microwave shot at landfall...

Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#68 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:14 pm

Also at 00Z, a station in Nha Trang city recorded a wind gust of 104kph and a SLP near 983mb...

Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#69 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:40 pm

Looks like landfall was at 90 knots Cat 2.

2817110318 129N1105E 90
2817110318 129N1105E 90
2817110318 129N1105E 90
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#70 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:43 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 109.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 109.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 12.5N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 108.5E.
TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM NORTHEAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 032316Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A SYSTEM NOW OVER LAND WITH
A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, AND IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON A RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (75 KNOTS) TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS VERY CLOSE TO THE LANDFALL LOCATION AT NHA TRANG,
VIETNAM REPORTED STATION PRESSURE AS LOW AS 983 MB, SUGGESTING THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING INLAND GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN UNTIL FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20
FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#71 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:08 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Also at 00Z, a station in Nha Trang city recorded a wind gust of 104kph and a SLP near 983mb...

Image

yes.
Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#72 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:16 am

euro6208 wrote:Looks like landfall was at 90 knots Cat 2.

2817110318 129N1105E 90
2817110318 129N1105E 90
2817110318 129N1105E 90

Yes, 90kts Cat 2 by JTWC at landfall...
JMA was 70kts(10-min), 970mb...
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#73 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:34 am

Vietnam just can't catch a break this autumn. At least Damrey doesn't look to stall out and make things worse than they already are with the flooding potential.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#74 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:44 am

Image

About to enter into Cambodian territory.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:46 am

28W DAMREY 171104 0600 12.5N 108.1E WPAC 55 982

Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#76 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:25 am

Damrey seems to be attracted to Vietnam. The same name also hit the country but in the northern part 12 years ago. Although 2017's is much stronger at landfall, they peaked as a Cat 2.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#77 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:27 am

The name Damrey means Elephant in Cambodian where the name originated. What better way than to visit.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#78 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:29 am

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#79 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:50 am

Check out the videos coming from Nha Trang city today!

FB Link: https://www.facebook.com/vitalkforum/vi ... 549478298/

Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#80 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:59 am

Strongest typhoon in 16 years! Lingling in 2001 was also a Cat 2.
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