ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical

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ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:34 pm

Central Atlantic nontropical low
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Re: Invest 95L

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:41 pm

Code: Select all

Satellite imagery indicates that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda, accompanied by
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  This low could
acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves to
the north-northeast over the central Atlantic this weekend and
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml
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Re: Invest 95L

#3 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:31 am

Very interesting. This is very close to where 94L dissipated, but there seems to be a pocket of weaker shear over this one now. Not too enthusiastic on it, but could squeeze out another quick named system. Always fun to add to the November storm count.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:32 am

It looks good now. It can became a depression or a weak storm by tomorrow if the convection will persist.

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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:37 pm

:uarrow: Up to 50/70

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system is located about 800 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the
next few days while the low moves northward to north-northeastward.
Conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development by
Thursday when the low will be moving over the cold waters of the
far north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:54 pm

Nice LLC with convection covering it. Won't take much more to get upgraded.

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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:02 pm

12z Euro develops this more now.

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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:26 pm

Now up to 70/80. Looks like we may see Rina...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure system located about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
continues to become better organized. Conditions are currently
favorable for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two as the system moves
north-northeastward through the open Atlantic. Conditions are
expected to become less conducive for development in the middle part
of next week, when the system is expected to reach colder water and
merge with a cold front.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby Krit-tonkla » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:28 am

Now TD Nineteen.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060849
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

GOES-16 night-time visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate
that convection associated with the well-defined low pressure
system located over the central Atlantic Ocean has increased and
become better organized during the past several hours. Satellite
intensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB at
0600Z. Since that time, however, a burst of deep convection has
developed over the previously partially exposed low-level
circulation center, which had been located near the northwestern
edge of the large convective cloud mass. Given that the center is
now located farther into the deep convection, NHC objective
intensity estimates have increased to more than 30 kt. As a result,
advisories have been initiated on the nineteenth tropical depression
of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 095/05 kt. The center of the cyclone
has been moving slowly eastward within the larger cyclonic gyre for
the past 12-18 hours, most likely due to the deep convection being
sheared toward the east. However, the latest NHC model guidance
indicates that the recent eastward motion should be short-lived
since the larger gyre is forecast to begin moving northward within
the next 6 h or so. As the wind field contracts over the next 24
hours, the motion of the cyclone should stabilize and become less
erratic as deep-layer southerly steering flow becomes established
on the west side of a large-scale subtropical ridge. By 48 h and
beyond, southwesterly flow ahead of mid-latitude trough is forecast
to accelerate the system toward the northeast through 96 h. By
120 h, the cyclone should have merged with a frontal system or have
dissipated over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The
official track forecast lies close to a blend of the TVCN, TVCX,
and GFEX consensus track models.

The cyclone is currently embedded within a low-shear environment in
the col region between a weakening upper-level low located to the
southeast and a trough to the northwest. The vertical wind shear is
forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to remain relatively low for
the next 36 h or so, which should allow for some modest
strengthening to occur despite sea-surface temperatures only being
around 25-26 deg C. Temperatures of 2-3 deg C colder-than-normal
in the mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere, however, should
act to offset the cooler SSTs, providing sufficient instability to
allow for deep convection to continue to develop. Model soundings
and the FSU Cyclone Phase-Space diagram indicate that extratropical
transition should begin shortly after 48 h when the cyclone reaches
about 40N latitude and moves over much cooler water. The NHC
intensity closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 28.9N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 30.0N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 35.4N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 39.4N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 49.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 59.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:00 am

Looks like the season won’t be ending in October after all. That would have been highly unusual for a hyperactive -ENSO season anyway by climatology.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:21 am

Shear is taking its toll on Nineteen:

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:46 am

Shear and marginally warm waters should prevent TD19 from becoming a hurricane, though a strong tropical storm is likely as it gets a baroclinic boost on Tuesday and Wednesday. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a minimal hurricane but anything stronger seems highly unlikely.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:16 am

Clearly the part of the season where we see the beautifully well organized systems has long pasted as Phillippe too was quite hideous and will likely be the most hideous of the season. :lol:

Unfortunately most of the big guys went on to affect land at some point. Fortunately this will likely peak as a mid-grade TS and will be a quickly transitioning extra-tropical storm as it passes over or near England.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:59 pm

Looking pretty bad this evening. Shear is taking its toll.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:30 pm

TS RINA AT 10PM
AL, 19, 2017110700, , BEST, 0, 300N, 500W, 35, 1010, TS
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:25 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:TS RINA AT 10PM
AL, 19, 2017110700, , BEST, 0, 300N, 500W, 35, 1010, TS


the BORDERLINE ASCAT is responsible for the upgrade
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:42 pm

Always interesting to see such high pressures in a tropical system, in such a high ambient pressure environment. Definitely a weak system but the persistence of convection has been pretty impressive given the location and conditions. Would love to see it put up a few more ACE points but not holding my breath on it getting too strong... given it's in the middle of nowhere though, I can always really hope for it!
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:08 pm

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep
convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and
01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone's center.
Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical
storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather
disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20
kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The
environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to
remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track.
After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and
increasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain
its intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids.
The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in
agreement with global model fields.

The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high
confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move
more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina
should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward
during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east
and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is
forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle,
and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS
more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC
track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the
TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 30.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 32.4N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 35.4N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 42.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 51.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:15 pm

Alyono wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:TS RINA AT 10PM
AL, 19, 2017110700, , BEST, 0, 300N, 500W, 35, 1010, TS


the BORDERLINE ASCAT is responsible for the upgrade


I can't find any 35kt winds in the ASCAT pass.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby chaser1 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:12 am

Is this forum locked? Not sure why but I had not seen any new thread set up for Atl: Tropical Storm Rina (for those that know or even care??). Still, for the sake of continuity I just thought someone should know that a new thread should have been started. For that matter, I could'nt find THIS thread under Active Storms either. Had to conduct a "search" just to see if this somehow had been misplaced or showing up under another thread?????
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