WPAC: HAIKUI - Dissipated

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Digital-TC-Chaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:45 pm

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:22 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:27 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT HAS HELD TOGETHER
WELL OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES
AND JUST NOW EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
WARM SLIGHTLY. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA SHOWS MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH GENERAL ROTATION AROUND THE LLCC, AND COMBINED
WITH SATELLITE FIXES IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS
BASED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T2.0
(30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH A PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET, AND VERY WARM (30 CELSIUS)
SSTS. CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER IS NOW DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA, AND BEGINNING TO
RESTRICT OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. CURRENTLY TD 30W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO REFLECT A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FORECAST TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH A PERSISTENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE WESTERLY JET, ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
WARM SSTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF TD
30W LIMITING OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO STIFLE
DEVELOPMENT. TD 30W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A SMALL AND FAIRLY
COMPACT TYPHOON BY TAU 48, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR MITIGATING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 48. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, TD 30W TRACK WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTING THE TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STEERING WILL TRANSITION FROM THE
NORTHEAST STR TO THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST STR, SHIFTING THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WHICH FAVORED A WEAKENING NORTHEAST STR AND A
RECURVE SCENARIO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE RESULTING IN A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY WITH ONLY COAMPS STILL FAVORING THE RECURVE SCENARIO.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE LATER TAUS AS STEERING
TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN RIDGE, WHICH LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:33 pm

Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:22 pm

00Z JTWC: 30W HAIKUI 171110 0000 14.9N 118.9E WPAC 30 1004

JTWC should also upgrade it into a TS...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:55 am

No longer expected to become a typhoon.

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES STILL FAIRLY WELL
ORGANIZED AND FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
FROM PAGASA SHOWS MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH GENERAL ROTATION
AROUND THE LLCC, AND COMBINED WITH SATELLITE FIXES IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE WITH A PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET, AND VERY WARM (30 CELSIUS)
SSTS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM
LIMITING OUTFLOW ON THAT PERIPHERY. CURRENTLY TD 30W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
NOW LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH A PERSISTENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE WESTERLY JET, ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
WARM SSTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF TD
30W LIMITING OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO STIFLE
DEVELOPMENT. TD 30W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A SMALL AND FAIRLY
COMPACT TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 36, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR MITIGATING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 48. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, TD 30W TRACK WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTING THE TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STEERING WILL TRANSITION FROM THE
NORTHEAST STR TO THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST STR, SHIFTING THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
RESULTING IN A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT BEGINS TO
DIVERGE AROUND TAU 36 WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. COAMPS IS THE ONLY OUTLIER STILL SHOWING A
RECURVE SCENARIO NORTHWARD NEAR HAINAN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:15 am

Also upgraded into a TS by JTWC @ 06Z...

30W HAIKUI 171110 0600 15.8N 118.0E WPAC 35 996

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:16 am

Upgraded to a TS. Peak lower at 55 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 100508Z
AMSR2 37GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AS WELL
AS RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A PERSISTENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE WESTERLY JET, ACCOMPANIED
BY WARM SSTS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 48. SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, TS 30W TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT TRANSITIONS
STEERING TO THE WESTERN STR BEGINS TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36
BUT DIVERGES AFTER TAU 36 WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. COAMPS REMAINS THE ONLY TRACKER
STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:15 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 101848Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED BANDING AROUND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 101313Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5
(30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS AND THE
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 AND 40 KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN THE RAIN
FLAGGED AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
WARM SSTS AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS HAIKUI WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AROUND
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE TO UNFAVORABLE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO COOLER WATERS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 96
SOUTH OF HUE, ON VIETNAM'S CENTRAL COAST. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION, REACHING FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POOR AGREEMENT
AFTER TAU 48, AS SOME MODELS DELAY THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
TRACK SPEEDS VARY. COAMPS IS THE LONE OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 4:04 am

Image
Image

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
COLLAPSED, FRAGMENTED, AND DISPLACED, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS (SC) CLOUD
LINES STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH, DIAMETRICAL TO THE HIGH CIRRUS
FLOW, BEFORE CURLING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH AN LLC
FEATURE IN THE 110140Z OSCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, FACTORING IN THE STORM MOTION
RESULTS IN MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE VWS. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, A STEADY STREAM OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING SOME
VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAIKUI WILL PLATEAU TO A WESTWARD STORM MOTION THEN DESCEND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR THE NORTHWEST ASSUMES
STEERING. DESPITE THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, INCREASING
VWS AND INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, AS INDICATED BY THE
INFLOW OF SC CLOUDS, WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS DECAY AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE BECOME WIDELY SPREAD AND ERRATIC BEYOND TAU 12, AN
INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17387
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:48 am

It's falling apart now. Partial ASCAT from 0143Z didn't have any TS winds west of the center. Probably none to the east now either.

Image
1 likes   

NotoSans
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 570
Age: 17
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:54 am

ASCAT did show TS winds in the northwestern quadrant.
Image

I would suggest stop using this website for ASCAT data since its auto-flagging seems very inaccurate. Can refer to other websites like this one as well as NRL, FNMOC and CIMSS.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

Digital-TC-Chaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:45 pm

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:24 pm

Image
Decoupled
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:23 am

Haikui getting a taste of the cold season...

Image
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:45 pm

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:09 am

Image
yup winter monsoon shredded.
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:11 am

Image
TD
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 12 November 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 12 November>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E112°00' (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3153
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Dissipated

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:17 am

Haikui was lame.
Did nothing of any note.
Now a naked swirl.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Dissipated

#37 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:27 am

What's left of Haikui, near the coast of Vietnam... It should dissipate near/over the country within the next 24hrs or so.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12950
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Dissipated

#38 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:00 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests