SIO: Cempaka - Dissipated

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SIO: Cempaka - Dissipated

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:35 am

As of 00:00 UTC Nov 20, 2017: Location: 8.6°S 109.6°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 101

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530 pm EDT.

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upper-level divergence appears to be very good for development.

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Ok shear is looking OK on the plot.Quite a solid ridge underneath the invest,



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SST 30c plenty warm enough.
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/fore ... forecast=1



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 20 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 November 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Western Region at present. A weak tropical low may develop in a trough just south of Indonesia over the next couple days and then linger or move slowly west. It is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the short term, but the risk increases for next weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/]
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:46 pm

Image


Bubbling away 21/11 1130 am EST

Image

Image
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:22 pm

EC going with a high chance of formation.
Image

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ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZNOV2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S
111.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH TWO FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 95S IS UNDER AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A FORMATIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE SPLIT,
WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF FAVORING DEVELOPMENT BY 241200Z AS 95S TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:09 am

Nothing
ABIO10 PGTW 230100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/230100Z-231800ZNOV2017//
RMKS/
E.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 111.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
.
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:43 pm

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 23 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 26 November 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 10.4S 111.0E, approximately 240 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to move slowly westwards during Friday and over the weekend before shifting back towards the east early next week, persisting over waters south of Java. This tropical low has only a slight chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend and early next week, well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low

Image
http://satview.bom.gov.au/

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https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 14.43,1273
Real time wind map supports the BOM.

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Still has EC/GFS/CMC model support.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/we ... 0600z.html
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Image
wave model 3
edited to add

Image
00Z @ 30/11 90kts/10min
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:36 pm

Image
25/11 13.30 EDT slowly organising .
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Nov 25, 2017 5:52 am

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Saturday 25 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 28 November 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 9.7S 109.5E, approximately 180 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to persist in this general area over the weekend. It's motion next week is uncertain but is largely determined on its development. It has a Low possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday with the risk increasing from Monday where it is likely to be located over open water well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:Low
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/









Image
GFS 06 run strengthens this system to a gnarly 938 mb before weakening as it tracks towards a landfall.
Has a neat looking fujiwara going on.
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Nov 25, 2017 6:36 pm

Image
26/11
Convention is firing up. Unfortunately there is no working noaa floater.


JTWC ABIO10 PGTW 251800
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S
109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 251433Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICT FLARING YET CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 95S IS
BENEFITTING FROM GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WITH A CHANNEL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST, ALL WHILE RESIDING IN A REGION OF
LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS VARY GREATLY IN TRACK FORECAST, BUT GENERALLY SHOW A
MEANDERING TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2017/bu ... e.html#PAC

Image
The consensus within global models is apparent.
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:21 pm

Mon 09:50 EDT
Image
Image


TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND IMPACT MAP
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA
Tropical Depression 95S
Image

http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/data/tc/IDJ22000.html
IDJ21030
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta

BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
On: 02:01 WIB 27/11/2017

Tropical Depression 95S

Conditions dated 27/11/2017 at 01:00 WIB:
Position: 9,1LS, 109,2BT (about 210 km southwest of Cilacap)
Motion Direction: north northeast, speed 4 knots (8 km / h) moving near the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Prediction 48 hours, date 29/11/2017 at 01:00 WIB:
Position: 9,3LS, 110,7BT
Motion direction: southeast, moving away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Max Winds: 20 knots (35 km / h)

Prediction 72 hours, date 30/11/2017 at 01:00 WIB:
Position: 11.0LS, 111.0BT
Motion: south southwest, moving away from Indonesia
Speed
Max Winds: 20 knots (35 km / h)

IMPACT ON WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
Tropical cyclone 95S gives the impact of:
- Medium to dense rain has the potential to occur in the southern part of Banten, southern West Java, Central and South Central Java, Yogyakarta, southern part of East Java.
- Strong winds up to 20 knots potentially occur in the region of Banten to Yogyakarta
- High wave 2 - 2.5 meters in South Waters of Bali and NTB
- High waves 2.5 - 4 meters in the Southern waters of Java Island
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Re: SIO 95S INVEST

#10 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:33 pm

Yesterday's ASCAT indicated winds were already at least 25 kts. Looks like a TS now with 35-45 kt winds.
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:02 am

It's TC Cempaka now. Jakarta is the official RSMC in that area:

http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/data/tc/IDJ22000.html
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:34 pm

The last three 37 GHz microwave images of Cempaka are quite interesting...

Image
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:47 pm

Cempaka still has a very impressive microwave structure. Looks much better compared to infrared imagery.

Image
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:31 am

Shocked to see JTWC still calling it as an invest.
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:25 am

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
28 November 2017 Next issue 5 December 2017
First tropical cyclone for Australian region in 2017-18 expected
The first tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere for the 2017-18 season, tropical cyclone Cempaka, was named by the Indonesian meteorological agency overnight on 27 November, and is currently located south of the Indonesian island of Java.
Cempaka is embedded in a weak tropical trough which extends to a second tropical low further to its west. This second low is forecast to merge with Cempaka and slowly strengthen as it moves in a southerly direction. Current forecasts suggest this system may track towards the far western coast of Western Australia at tropical cyclone strength, but is unlikely to make landfall at tropical cyclone intensity.
Further information on any tropical cyclones in the Australian Region can be found on the Bureau's Current Tropical Cyclones page.


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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:20 am

I think it either dissipated or moved ashore (and dissipated) last night. I can't find it on satellite and ASCAT indicates no LLC.
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:27 pm

Isn't this a rather unusual location for a cyclone?
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:26 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Isn't this a rather unusual location for a cyclone?


Yes, it's quite far north. ASCAT doesn't indicate any LLC today. Nothing on satellite or microwave either.
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Re: SIO: Cempaka - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:23 pm

Yeah, really equatorial for a system in this region. Indonesia impacts are rare.
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