NIO: OCKHI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

NIO: OCKHI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:43 am

91B INVEST 171127 0600 6.0N 85.2E IO 15 1010
Image
Last edited by jaguarjace on Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:09 am

91B INVEST 171128 0600 6.1N 82.9E IO 20 1006

Recent satellite images and an ASCAT pass indicates that this system has become better organized in the last 24hrs.

Image
Image

Gradual additional organization and strengthening is possible after it passes over Sri Lanka on the next 24-48hrs, once it is back over waters. The system may also move into the Arabian Sea later this week.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:38 am

Image
May run into ideal conditions in the arabian sea. And the wpac may also fire up latter next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:51 am

91B is now analyzed to be a (Tropical)Depression by the JTWC and IMD. The system is the subject of a TCFA by the JTWC.

Image

Image
Image
REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 83.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 81.7E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 290043Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER BOTH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND A 281614Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE, AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH LAND, AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:59 am

Today's 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs have it approaching and passing through India's Lakshadweep islands in the Arabian Sea as a Typhoon/Hurricane-strength system on the next couple of days.

Image

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: NIO: 91B - Deep Depression

#6 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:22 pm

ASCAT shows a veryy large area of TS winds, so IMD upgrades to deep depression...
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: NIO: 03B - Deep Depression

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:18 am

JTWC is now classifying it as Tropical Storm 03B, making it their first NIO system since Mora in May.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: 91B - Deep Depression

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:27 am

Tropical Storm 03B by JTWC for quite some time now.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: 91B - Deep Depression

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:28 am

@ 03Z today(8:30am IST), a station located near the southern tip of India recorded a wind speed of 41kph, and a SLP near 1001mb.

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#10 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:31 am

Finally named "Ockhi" by the IMD...

Image
Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the deep depression over Comorin area
moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 38 kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a
cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2017 over
Comorin area and neighbourhood near Latitude 7.5º N and Longitude 77.5º E, about 340 km westnorthwest
of Galle (Sri Lanka), 60 km south of Kanyakumari, 120 km southwest of
Thiruvananthapuram and 480 km east-southeast of Minicoy. The system is very likely to move westnorthwestwards
towards Lakshadweep Islands and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm
during next 24 hours.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#11 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:55 am

Radar image of Ockhi, clearly showing the storm's center...

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:04 am

Latest microwave

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:05 am

Image

appears to be on RI phase
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#14 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:26 am

a well formed eye is present, so IMD has it at 35 kts...
1 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:10 pm

Also dead wrong

TPXS11 PGTW 301456

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 9.48S

D. 107.61E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1118Z 9.22S 107.42E SSMS
30/1132Z 9.30S 107.45E SSMS


LEMBKE
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:42 pm

03B OCKHI 171201 0000 8.7N 74.2E IO 60 988
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#17 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:14 pm

Image

can SSD source their images for this area from INSAT instead of Himawari8
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Cyclonic Storm

#18 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:44 am

JTWC has just upgraded it into a Category 1 Cyclone @ 06Z today. Eye/center is now near/over India's Lakshadweep islands.

03B OCKHI 171201 0600 8.8N 73.5E IO 70 970

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#19 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:28 am

Remember, the JTWC is not the official RSMC for any basin. The IMD is the RSMC. They are still classifying Ockhi as a tropical storm (severe tropical cyclone). I'm not saying they're correct, but they're the official source. I think winds are in the 70-80 kt range now.
1 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: NIO: OCKHI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:36 am

Looks like the system may have hit a snag with some dry air. There haven't been any good microwave passes recently, but even the impressive AMSR2 pass from a little while ago showed a wedge of higher brightness air (dry air) closing in on the system from the west. I feel like chances are good that we have already observed peak intensity.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests