WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:19 am

32W KAI-TAK 171220 1200 6.9N 111.9E WPAC
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:57 pm

Downgraded to a TD.

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT BUT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, SUPPORTED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE CYCLONE.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. SST VALUES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 27 TO 28C. TD 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IN-STREAM
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE STR WEAKEN. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WEAKENS AND EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. TD KAI-TAK IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:42 am

JMA still keeping Kai-tak at TS status... Will reach Peninsular Malaysia tomorrow or on Saturday as a TD or LPA.

Image
Image
TS 1726 (Kai-tak)
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 21 December 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 21 December>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°30' (6.5°)
E108°50' (108.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:35 am

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED INTO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A RAGGED,
PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MUTLI-SPECTRAL LOOP
AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 210213Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BY
BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND IN-STREAM WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATION OF THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

#85 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:46 pm

Image
Image
TD
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 22 December 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 22 December>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°00' (6.0°)
E106°00' (106.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

#86 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:45 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 5.4N 106.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 5.4N 106.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 4.6N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 4.0N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 5.2N 106.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SHEARED MORE THAN 180 NM
WESTWARD OF A FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 212308Z WSAT BULLSEYE PASS
SHOWING SPARSE 25-KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CORE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE LLC IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER UNRAVEL AND DISPERSE AS HIGH VWS PERSISTS LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

#87 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:09 am

Remnant centered near the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia.

Image
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