WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:03 am

TXPQ27 KNES 120857
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 10.0N

D. 133.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC FULLY EXPOSED AND MOVING NNE AWAY FROM DEEP
CONVECTION. SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM THE COLD
OVERCAST. DT=1.5 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:30 am

@iCyclone
Models coming into agreement that the messy soup festering in Philippine Sea (96W) is likely to form into a large junk cyclone. #whatever




https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/940500646892941312
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:58 am

A circulation sits northwest of Koror near 9N131E and has slowly
drifted northwestward today. Satellite imagery shows a sheared
system with no deep convection at the center. Monsoon westerlies
are found between the equator and 5N from south of Mindanao to
near 132E. The Koror forecast currently reflects a quicker
development of the circulation as it pulls away but with some
extension into the Palau region before it moves farther to the
northwest. Gusty showers will reach Koror after midnight with winds
picking up for the next couple of days. Winds are expected to become
hazardous for small craft overnight and seas will slowly increase
through Thursday. Surf could become hazardous Wednesday night or
Thursday if the monsoon westerlies are slow to move out.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#24 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:28 am

All the ASCAT passes are actually hitting for a change.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:05 pm

TXPQ27 KNES 121522
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 12/1430Z

C. 10.0N

D. 130.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=0 DUE TO LACK OF WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
BANDING CONVECTION. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#26 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:13 pm

1900hurricane wrote:All the ASCAT passes are actually hitting for a change.

https://i.imgur.com/JYKcPTb.png


Looks like an elongated area of low pressure. Wouldn't typically qualify for TD status. Will likely become a weak TS before it moves into the Philippines on Friday. Mainly a rain threat.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#27 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:21 pm

Yeah, certainly a broad monsoon depression type circulation.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:20 pm

96W INVEST 171213 0000 11.4N 129.1E WPAC 20 1004

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:42 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 130130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 129.9E TO 12.6N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS VARIOUS, UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH WITH ONE
CONVECTIVE AREA WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 122145Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LOCALIZED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE EASTERN PHILIPPINE COAST WITH
LAND INTERACTION HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 140130Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#30 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:28 am

Another ASCAT pass from earlier today still showed an elongated circulation, with the strongest winds of 25-30kts found along the northern periphery associated with the presence of the NE Monsoon.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#31 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:31 am

A slow and erratic movement near/over eastern Visayas during the next 3 days at least, and finally an acceleration towards the west afterwards. As 96W moves very slowly during the next few days, copious rainfall amounts will be a threat. The GFS and ECMWF models predict 3-day rainfall totals reaching/exceeding 500mm(20in) for much of the Visayas until Saturday night PhT.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:23 am

TPPN10 PGTW 131232

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (W OF PALAU)

B. 13/1200Z

C. 11.26N

D. 127.98E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:42 am

EURO literally stalls this offshore Visayas and deepens it down to 994 mb before landfall...Main threat will be catastrophic rainfall...It peaks it at 991 mb in the SCS.

Same with GFS on a weak TS and landfall for Visayas.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 32W

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:20 pm

JTWC upgrades to TD 32W.


MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131621DEC2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 11.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 11.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 12.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.7N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 127.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 130130 COR).//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 32W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:30 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
418NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED,
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND
ANALYSIS OF RADAR MOSAIC DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. THE ASSESSED
LLCC LINES UP WITH THE ANALYZED POSITION EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW
REFLECTIVITY NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 131326Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES
AND RJTD AND T1.0 (20-25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY A 131243Z OSCAT PASS INDICATING 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. SOME HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS ARE
PRESENT FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH TD 32W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 32W IS
IN A NARROW BAND OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE THAT IS NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROVIDING ROBUST POLEWARD
AND WESTWARD EXHAUST FOR THE SYSTEM, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA SUPPORTIVE AT 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ARE BEING OFFSET, HOWEVER, BY ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY COOL, DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A COLD SURGE EVENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
LIES WITHIN A COL AREA BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) NEAR WAKE
ISLAND AND IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
OVER WESTERN NEW GUINEA, LEADING TO SLOW, MEANDERING MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 32W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF SAMAR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN PERSISTS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE STR OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC BUILDS WESTWARD AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
RIDGE AND DRIVES TD 32W ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
VWS AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HINDERED BY THE
ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, DRIER AIR AND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS, SUPPORTING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 35 KNOTS
PRIOR TO CROSSING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEYOND TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE AFUM,
EGRR AND CTCX TRACKERS TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
TAU 72, BEFORE HEADING WEST, WHILE THE ECMWF, GFS AND HWRF TRACKERS
SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS, THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 LIES SOUTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVEN THE NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTPAC WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENSION ALONG ROUGHLY
20 DEG NORTH, AND WILL KEEP TD 32W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE REEMERGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
AROUND TAU 100. TD 32W WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES AS
INTERACTION WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN WILL DISRUPT VORTEX INFLOW, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 97W
AS IT DEVELOPS, WILL SERVE TO OFFSET THE CONTINUED LOW VWS
ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATER
TAUS, WITH ALL AVAILABLE TRACKERS INDICATING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND
DISSIPATING IT. WITH THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:35 pm

JMA upgrades to TS KAI-TAK.

TS 1726 (Kai-tak)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 14 December 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 14 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°30' (11.5°)
E128°00' (128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40' (10.7°)
E126°35' (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°55' (11.9°)
E126°05' (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°05' (12.1°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:13 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.2N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.3N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.4N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 127.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
421 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A FRAGMENTED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND MAINTAINED
AFTER CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MSI ANIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF RADAR MOSAIC DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES
AND IS SUPPORTED BY A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 132259Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND RJTD AND T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AS WELL
AS AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ASSESSMENT OF 2.1 (31 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS WORSENED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
PREVIOUSLY NEARLY ON TOP OF TD 32W HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS IS PROVIDING FOR THE MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS
NOW NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES, CAUGHT IN THE
COL AREA BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NEAR THE DATELINE,
ANOTHER STR IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
OVER WESTERN NEW GUINEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 32W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF SAMAR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN DISCUSSED
PREVIOUSLY. BEYOND TAU 48, THE STR OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC BUILDS
WESTWARD AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE LEADING TO A TURN OF
TD 32W TOWARDS THE WEST BY TAU 72. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48. VWS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL BUT BE OFFSET BY STRONG
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE
SLOWLY TRACKING OVER A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) REGION
PROVIDING ENERGY FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE FORECAST PEAKING AT
40 KNOTS PRIOR TO CROSSING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE AFUM, EGRR AND
CTCX TRACKERS TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72,
BEFORE HEADING WEST, WHILE THE ECMWF, GFS AND HWRF TRACKERS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS,
THEN RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. GIVEN THE NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTPAC WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH,
AND WILL KEEP TD 32W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD PATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES BEFORE REEMERGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU
100. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 32W WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED BY MASS CONVERGENCE FROM
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 97W AND THE SYSTEM IS IMPACTED BY
TERRAIN FEATURES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 72 WITH ROUGHLY A 300NM SPREAD BETWEEN AFUM AND GFS
TRACKERS. WITH THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:03 am

Looks like I will get a chance to try out my new Python ACE calculator! No ACE yet, but it should start calculating and tallying once JTWC assesses Kai-tak at tropical storm intensity.

Code: Select all

System:  THIRTYTWO (32W)
Date & Time        Vmax        ACE         PDI      Class
                   (kt)   Inst      Sum          Inst         Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/13/2017 18Z:  25,    0.0000,   0.0000,    0.000000,   0.000000,    XX
12/14/2017  0Z:  30,    0.0000,   0.0000,    0.000000,   0.000000,    XX


I wish it would keep my proper header spacing like it does in IDLE though. :P

Image

(As an easter egg, there's also a system I was doing a reanalysis with in that frame too. Can anyone figure out which one it is (shouldn't be too hard)?)
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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:26 am

Recent ASCAT data shows an area of gale force winds a ways to the north of the center, but these appear to be more closely tied to the airmass emanating from a cell of the massive high pressure complex centered over the Asian mainland.

Image

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Re: WPAC: KAI-TAK - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:23 am

32W KAI-TAK 171214 1200 11.5N 127.7E WPAC 35 996

Now a TS...
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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