WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:35 pm

97W INVEST.15kts-1010mb-37N-1496E.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:52 pm

This is another GFS (recurve) vs ECMWF (Phil landfall) scenario, their only agreement is that this will be a pretty intense cyclone.

Idk, but this kind of disagreement between the two (trackwise) frequenyly occur during december or latter part of the year.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:51 am

Both GFS and ECMWF have a strong Typhoon but ECMWF makes landfall in Mindanao/Visayas while GFS stays to the east.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:39 am

97W INVEST 171213 0600 4.1N 148.2E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:40 am

As of 12:00 UTC Dec 13, 2017:

Location: 4.7°N 146.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:38 am

We'll see how it evolves, guidance hasn't been handling the near-equatorial monsoon trough well the past couple of weeks, particularly American guidance.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:43 am

Our friends in Palau and Yap better watch out for this one.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:52 am

GFS has a monster for Yap and peak of 879 mb...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:37 am

cycloneye wrote:Both GFS and ECMWF have a strong Typhoon but ECMWF makes landfall in Mindanao/Visayas while GFS stays to the east.

Hagupit 2014 all over again...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:54 am

12z GFS inches more closer to Luzon than past runs thereafter it recurves.It makes it a very strong SuperTyphoon.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:29 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:44 pm

12z ECMWF has strong typhoon making landfall at Mindanao.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:16 pm

97W INVEST 171214 0000 3.1N 151.4E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:17 pm

As of 00:00 UTC:

Location: 3.1°N 151.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:24 pm

A monsoon trough stretches southeastward from the central
Philippines, passing between Koror and Yap to a weak circulation
south of Chuuk. Modest converging monsoonal winds near the trough
axis are expected to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms near
Koror thru Friday evening. For Yap, gentle winds near a neutral area
along the trough should allow drier weather to last thru tonight.
Farther east, converging low-level winds north of the circulation will
couple with mid-level vorticity and upper-level divergence to sustain
rainy conditions near Chuuk at least thru Friday evening. In response
to a strong high pressure coming off Japan, this circulation should
take a slow west-northwest movement over the next few days. With a
trade-wind surge approaching from the east this weekend, persistent
converging trades northeast of the circulation will probably prolong
unstable conditions near Chuuk into next week. Slow movement of the
circulation also gives more time for potential development before
reaching Yap and Koror. In so, inclement weather and rough seas might
be in store for far western Micronesia next week. For now, have
capped winds at 15 to 20 knots and seas just below Small Craft
Advisory levels across Yap and Koror by Sunday.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#16 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:04 am

ECMWF nudge it a little more S again in 00z run - going for Mindanao

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:22 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N
153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132337Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 132336Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED AROUND THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NAVGEM
INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATING WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:41 am

The question in the forecast will center around a circulation now
south of Chuuk this afternoon or near 2N154E. Models show the
circulation moving northwest and being located near Palau or Yap next
Thursday...depending on which model you look at. Models all hint at
the circulation developing into a possible tropical storm. All models
agree that the circulation will not have any direct effect on the
Marianas no matter how strong it gets. The debate is how strong will
it get? Models show the pressure gradient between the circulation and
high pressure to the north causing breezy conditions across the
Marianas through next week. Latest model data showed winds over the
local area stronger than the current forecast has. Forecast already
has breezy conditions for next week and was reluctant to go too high
as later model iterations may weaken the circulation. Want more
confidence in the forecast before increasing the winds. Models
suggest that rainfall will not increase over the area because of the
circulation with only isolated showers expected. Subsidence north of
the circulation could be the possible reason for keeping the showers
isolated.


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:21 pm

GFS continues to develop a tropical cyclone well south of Chuuk over
the next few days, moving it WNW over the following week. However,
while ASCAT surface wind analysis shows a weak elongated circulation
near 3N150E, satellite shows very little deep convection. The new
12Z ECMWF shows only a large weak disturbance that shows little
development until Wednesday, but stays well south of Guam, not
getting much above 5N. Definitely leaning toward the ECMWF on this
issue, as GFS has a recent history of developing disturbances too
quickly and too far north. What this all boils down to is very
little change in the forecast, with only a couple of tweaks in max
temperatures. Showers should be no more than isolated the next
5-7 days, and the coming week looks fairly dry for the Marianas.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#20 Postby NotSparta » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm

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