WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#201 Postby NotSparta » Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:17 am

euro6208 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The central South China Sea is just a very hostile environment. The northeast monsoon is blowing at 30-35 kts all the way from China to the southern South China Sea. Once Tembin passes southern Palawan and enters the SCS, it should begin interacting with this strong NE monsoon. That may make it difficult for Tembin to reach typhoon strength.


Tembin defied everyone's expectations. :lol:


The SCS always finds a way to be favorable :lol:

Also it's weird for me seeing a typhoon in December, but the WPAC never sleeps either
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#202 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:33 am

NotSparta wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The central South China Sea is just a very hostile environment. The northeast monsoon is blowing at 30-35 kts all the way from China to the southern South China Sea. Once Tembin passes southern Palawan and enters the SCS, it should begin interacting with this strong NE monsoon. That may make it difficult for Tembin to reach typhoon strength.


Tembin defied everyone's expectations. :lol:


The SCS always finds a way to be favorable :lol:

Also it's weird for me seeing a typhoon in December, but the WPAC never sleeps either


December typhoons since 2010 has been really strong. Last one was 2 years ago with Cat 4 Melor. Hagupit 155 knots Cat 5 the previous year and Bopha in 2012 technically a November storm peaked as a 5 striking Mindanao.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#203 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:00 am

I think part of what helped shelter Tembin from the continental polar airmass associated with the Northwest Monsoon was how far south it is in latitude. At below 10ºN, it simply took a while for that airmass to become entrained into Tembin's circulation, giving it a window to intensify. Tembin is clearly being affected by the cp airmass now though.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#204 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:27 pm

Check out the visible imagery. Tembin is being torn to shreads by shear. Mid level center near the coast of Vietnam, low-level center 150 or so miles to the east.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#205 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:56 pm

Tembin passed through the Spratly islands in the South China Sea earlier.
At 12Z, one of the islands there recorded sustained winds of 104kph from the north and a SLP of 987.4 mb.

Image

About 6hrs later, another island, just SW of the first mentioned island, recorded sustained winds of 79kph and a SLP near 989 mb.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#206 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:11 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SHEARED AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH
ALL DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT THROUGH A THIN CIRRUS
DECK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY ANALYSIS OF A 242345Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MULTI-POLARITY MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH REVEALS A VERY
DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF A NON-SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 DEG CELSIUS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG, BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY THE STRONG SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT
65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS). THE MOST RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 74 KNOTS AND
RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T4.7 (83 KNOTS)
ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE, AS THEY ARE TRACKING THE DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH IS OVER 150 NM DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. TY 33W HAS JOGGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY, LEADING TO A RELOCATION OF THE LLCC ON THIS WARNING.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE LONG TERM
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 20 DEG NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE RELOCATION, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG 20 DEG NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TY 33W HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE UNDER INCREASING
SHEAR AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE
WEAKENING WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND SSTS
INCREASE, BUT CONTINUING TO BE OFFSET BY STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL THAILAND COASTLINE NEAR TAU
60 AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN TY 33W AS IT CROSSES OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#207 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:39 pm

No way it's a 65 kt system now that it is decoupling.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#208 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:28 am

Downgraded...

Image
Image
STS 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 25 December 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 25 December>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°05' (8.1°)
E108°50' (108.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)


JTWC: 33W TEMBIN 171225 0600 8.0N 108.7E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#209 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:05 pm

Down to 40 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WHAT
CONVECTION THERE IS, IS SHEARED OVER 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
SOUTHERN CAMBODIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 251448Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WITH SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DUE TO PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF
40 KNOT WINDS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE LLCC AND THE VIETNAM COAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL VALUES
OF SST NEAR 26C. WHILE THESE FACTORS ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
DEVELOPMENT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST TS 33W, WHICH IS INDUCING CONVERGENT
FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTRIBUTING TO ITS WEAKENING. TS 33W IS
TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, PASSING NEAR OR JUST
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN TURN
TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TS 33W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE
TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AS IT TRACKS
GULF OF THAILAND. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BE A MINIMAL TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE MALAY
PENINSULA, FULLY DISSIPATING IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Depression

#210 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:11 pm

Downgraded into a TD.
Exposed center passing near the southern tip of Vietnam's Mekong Delta region.

Image
Image
TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 26 December 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 26 December>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°00' (8.0°)
E105°00' (105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa

Image
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Depression

#211 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:53 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174
NM SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHICH MADE LANDFALL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF
SOUTH VIETNAM BY 260000Z. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND CONFIRMED
BY A 252332Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE
FROM T2.5-T3.0 FROM KNES AND RJTD, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BASED ON A
252310Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.8
(28 KNOTS). THE PGTW FIX WAS OVER LAND AND THEREFORE HAD NO
ASSOCIATED INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH
PERSISTENT MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SST NEAR 26C. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST
SOUTHEAST OF TD 33W IS INDUCING CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE AREA WHICH IS
SMOTHERING THE SYSTEM AND LEADING TO ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. TD 33W
CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS, SLOWING AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM, BEFORE
ACCELERATING AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF THAILAND. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE MALAY PENINSULA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

#212 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:53 am

Here's the operational ACE and PDI numbers for Tembin.

System: TEMBIN (33W)
Date & Time Vmax ACE PDI Class
(kt) Inst Sum Inst Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/20/2017 18Z: 25, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, XX
12/21/2017 0Z: 35, 0.1225, 0.1225, 0.042875, 0.042875, XX
12/21/2017 6Z: 35, 0.1225, 0.2450, 0.042875, 0.085750, XX
12/21/2017 12Z: 40, 0.1600, 0.4050, 0.064000, 0.149750, XX
12/21/2017 18Z: 50, 0.2500, 0.6550, 0.125000, 0.274750, XX
12/22/2017 0Z: 45, 0.2025, 0.8575, 0.091125, 0.365875, XX
12/22/2017 6Z: 45, 0.2025, 1.0600, 0.091125, 0.457000, XX
12/22/2017 12Z: 45, 0.2025, 1.2625, 0.091125, 0.548125, XX
12/22/2017 18Z: 50, 0.2500, 1.5125, 0.125000, 0.673125, XX
12/23/2017 0Z: 55, 0.3025, 1.8150, 0.166375, 0.839500, XX
12/23/2017 6Z: 60, 0.3600, 2.1750, 0.216000, 1.055500, XX
12/23/2017 12Z: 60, 0.3600, 2.5350, 0.216000, 1.271500, XX
12/23/2017 18Z: 65, 0.4225, 2.9575, 0.274625, 1.546125, XX
12/24/2017 0Z: 75, 0.5625, 3.5200, 0.421875, 1.968000, XX
12/24/2017 6Z: 80, 0.6400, 4.1600, 0.512000, 2.480000, XX
12/24/2017 12Z: 80, 0.6400, 4.8000, 0.512000, 2.992000, XX
12/24/2017 18Z: 80, 0.6400, 5.4400, 0.512000, 3.504000, XX
12/25/2017 0Z: 65, 0.4225, 5.8625, 0.274625, 3.778625, XX
12/25/2017 6Z: 50, 0.2500, 6.1125, 0.125000, 3.903625, XX
12/25/2017 12Z: 45, 0.2025, 6.3150, 0.091125, 3.994750, XX
12/25/2017 18Z: 40, 0.1600, 6.4750, 0.064000, 4.058750, XX
12/26/2017 0Z: 30, 0.0000, 6.4750, 0.000000, 4.058750, XX
12/26/2017 6Z: 25, 0.0000, 6.4750, 0.000000, 4.058750, XX
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

#213 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:24 am

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