WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#121 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:58 pm

ASCAT has some 40-45 kt wind vectors to the west of the center, which looks to be in good agreement with the 3.0 DT I'm getting.

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#122 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:32 pm

Tembin already has a shot at becoming the first typhoon-strength storm to make landfall in the country this year. Shear is beginning to relax, coupled with decent moisture, high SSTs and OHC. It isn't moving as rapidly as Washi in 2011.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#123 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:39 pm

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#124 Postby Alyono » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:53 pm

1900hurricane wrote:ASCAT has some 40-45 kt wind vectors to the west of the center, which looks to be in good agreement with the 3.0 DT I'm getting.

https://i.imgur.com/PrqS6X7.png


caution about that ASCAT. It has east winds SOUTH of the center. Does not seem reliable
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#125 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:21 pm

Uh oh

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#126 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:53 pm

Image

Large i would be very surprised if this is not a 45kts+ storm atm as per the ascat.
Clearly the system is liking the warm sst and very good divergence the way it has
blown up.

Image

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#127 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:01 am

I just couldn't wrap my head around the 35kts estimate at this very moment. I'm not knowledgeable with Dvorak estimates but I see DT numbers ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 and I'm not sure if they are analyzing the same storm that I'm looking at right now.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:16 am

Image

Too organized for it to be only a minimal TS.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#129 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:26 am

Sure looks like there is a eye under the canopy

.Image
https://v2.meteopilipinas.gov.ph//
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#130 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:32 am

This is not just a 35-knot tropical storm. For the past six hours, it seems to have decelerated and begun taking its time to further intensify, with its initially partially exposed center now being under the new burst of deep convection. Shear has relaxed to 10-15 kts. This is basically a stronger version of Tropical Storm Jangmi in 2014. What people here agonize most, my family in particular, is the possibility of a repeat of STS/Typhoon Nell in 1993 which struck Cebu City a mere day following Christmas.

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#131 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:56 am

Nudging closer to STS strength

TS 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 21 December 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 21 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°05' (8.1°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°05' (8.1°)
E126°35' (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°40' (8.7°)
E124°20' (124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 23 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°20' (8.3°)
E119°25' (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25' (9.4°)
E114°50' (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

Now look who's conservative :roll: :lol:

33W TEMBIN 171221 0600 8.5N 128.4E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#132 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:24 am

To convert the JMA's 10-minute wind speeds to 1-minute wind speeds to make a more meaningful comparison.

45kts 10/m to 1/min is 45 x 1.14 =51 kts /1min if the conversion is correct


JTWC likely will up the intensity with there next advisory.
33W TEMBIN 171221 0600 8.5N 128.4E WPAC 35 996

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysi i believe is jt's data pl's correct if i'm wrong.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#133 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:57 am

Image


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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#134 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:47 am

After the Philippines, Central and/or Southern Vietnam may have to deal with this one on or around Christmas day. It appears though that it'll lose some steam before it reaches them.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#135 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:37 am

Peak of 75 knots now.

WDPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS OUTFLOW OBSCURING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 210348Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LLCC FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TEMBIN WILL INITIALLY TRACK WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE
TRACK WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 12 AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES, EXITING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA PRIOR TO TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND, TERRAIN
INTERACTION WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, BUT IT WILL CAUSE A
BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH THE SYSTEM
REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH AROUND TAU 60 AND EVENTUALLY PEAK AT 75
KNOTS AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN
INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD AFTER TAU 72 LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE SPREADING IN LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#136 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:06 am

STS 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 21 December 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 21 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°55' (7.9°)
E127°40' (127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°10' (8.2°)
E125°25' (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°25' (8.4°)
E122°50' (122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°30' (8.5°)
E118°10' (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°20' (9.3°)
E113°10' (113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#137 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:20 am

The central South China Sea is just a very hostile environment. The northeast monsoon is blowing at 30-35 kts all the way from China to the southern South China Sea. Once Tembin passes southern Palawan and enters the SCS, it should begin interacting with this strong NE monsoon. That may make it difficult for Tembin to reach typhoon strength.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#138 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:13 am

Nearing landfall over Mindanao

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#139 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:42 pm

Makes landfall.

@UWCIMSS
Tropical Storm #Tembin (#VintaPH) making landfall on the #Philippines, tragically soon after #KaiTak devastation, via #Himarwari8. https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/bG40S


 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/943898835625144320


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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#140 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:51 pm

Looks like the landfall point is somewhere in between Surigao Del Sur (Lingig) and Davao Oriental (either of Boston or Cateel)

Image

Image
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