WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - (JMA) Severe Tropical Storm - (JTWC) Typhoon

#181 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:53 pm

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - (JMA) Severe Tropical Storm - (JTWC) Typhoon

#182 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:05 pm

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - (JMA) Severe Tropical Storm - (JTWC) Typhoon

#183 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:12 pm

33W TEMBIN 171224 0000 8.2N 114.3E WPAC 75 980
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - (JMA) Severe Tropical Storm - (JTWC) Typhoon

#184 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:18 pm

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - (JMA) Severe Tropical Storm - (JTWC) Typhoon

#185 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:28 pm

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - (JMA) Severe Tropical Storm - (JTWC) Typhoon

#186 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:30 pm

FKPQ31 RJTD 240000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20171224/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TEMBIN
NR: 15
PSN: N0835 E11440
MOV: WNW 14KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 24/0600Z N0835 E11320
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 24/1200Z N0820 E11200
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 24/1800Z N0820 E11040
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 25/0000Z N0825 E10920
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20171224/0600Z =


Should be listed as typhoon on the title.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Tembin

#187 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:33 pm

A nascent eye is appearing on visible imagery.

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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Tembin

#188 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:36 pm

Yeah, looks like JMA just upgraded at 00Z.

Image

TY 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 24 December 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 24 December>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°35' (8.6°)
E114°40' (114.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 370 km (200 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°20' (8.3°)
E112°00' (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°25' (8.4°)
E109°20' (109.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00' (9.0°)
E104°25' (104.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°50' (9.8°)
E100°25' (100.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Tembin

#189 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:54 pm

Here's what I have for ACE and PDI so far:

Code: Select all

System:     TEMBIN (33W)
Date & Time        Vmax        ACE         PDI      Class
                   (kt)   Inst      Sum          Inst         Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/20/2017 18Z:  25,    0.0000,   0.0000,    0.000000,   0.000000,    XX
12/21/2017  0Z:  35,    0.1225,   0.1225,    0.042875,   0.042875,    XX
12/21/2017  6Z:  35,    0.1225,   0.2450,    0.042875,   0.085750,    XX
12/21/2017 12Z:  40,    0.1600,   0.4050,    0.064000,   0.149750,    XX
12/21/2017 18Z:  50,    0.2500,   0.6550,    0.125000,   0.274750,    XX
12/22/2017  0Z:  45,    0.2025,   0.8575,    0.091125,   0.365875,    XX
12/22/2017  6Z:  45,    0.2025,   1.0600,    0.091125,   0.457000,    XX
12/22/2017 12Z:  45,    0.2025,   1.2625,    0.091125,   0.548125,    XX
12/22/2017 18Z:  50,    0.2500,   1.5125,    0.125000,   0.673125,    XX
12/23/2017  0Z:  55,    0.3025,   1.8150,    0.166375,   0.839500,    XX
12/23/2017  6Z:  60,    0.3600,   2.1750,    0.216000,   1.055500,    XX
12/23/2017 12Z:  60,    0.3600,   2.5350,    0.216000,   1.271500,    XX
12/23/2017 18Z:  65,    0.4225,   2.9575,    0.274625,   1.546125,    XX
12/24/2017  0Z:  75,    0.5625,   3.5200,    0.421875,   1.968000,    XX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN -TYPHOON

#190 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:55 pm

Image


Image
36hr lead
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#191 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:11 pm

Unofficial Forecast Global and Basin Tropical Cyclone (TC) ACE from Operational Models
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/aceforecast/dnwpac.php
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#192 Postby Alyono » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:45 pm

looks to be intensifying rapidly now
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#193 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:47 pm

Image
Image

The 11th Typhoon of 2017...
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#194 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:51 pm

Image
eye with a warm spot just in the shot.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#195 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:55 pm

Forecast to peak at 80 knots. I won’t be surprised if it gets stronger than that.

WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND CONTINUOUS CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TY 33W. THE INITIAL
LOCATION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 232251Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE AND STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW FAVORABLE TO MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG WITH GOOD NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND A 231948Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. TY 33W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 36. IN THE SHORT TERM, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 12, TY TEMBIN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VWS,
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH LAND.
TY 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 AS IT SKIRTS THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM. TY 33W WILL THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF
OF THAILAND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC WHICH REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A
WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TY 33W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT, TY 33W WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#196 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:11 pm

Will start losing strength before making landfall over Southern Vietnam, but still anticipated to be at TS intensity by that time. Still, that's quite a relief.
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#197 Postby Alyono » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:23 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Will start losing strength before making landfall over Southern Vietnam, but still anticipated to be at TS intensity by that time. Still, that's quite a relief.


Linda in 1997 hit this part of Vietnam as a TS. 3,000 were killed
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#198 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:19 am

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 DEC 2017 Time : 064000 UTC
Lat : 8:04:33 N Lon : 113:08:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 968.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.9mb

Center Temp : -66.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees




Image


FKPQ31 RJTD 240600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20171224/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TEMBIN
NR: 16
PSN: N0810 E11320
MOV: WSW 14KT
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 70KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 24/1200Z N0810 E11200
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 24/1800Z N0825 E11040
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 25/0000Z N0830 E10920
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 25/0600Z N0840 E10800
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20171224/1200Z =




33W TEMBIN 171224 0600 8.3N 113.2E WPAC 80 974
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#199 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:37 am

Looks like Tembin may have ingested some dry air.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Tropical Storm

#200 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:10 am

wxman57 wrote:The central South China Sea is just a very hostile environment. The northeast monsoon is blowing at 30-35 kts all the way from China to the southern South China Sea. Once Tembin passes southern Palawan and enters the SCS, it should begin interacting with this strong NE monsoon. That may make it difficult for Tembin to reach typhoon strength.


Tembin defied everyone's expectations. :lol:
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