SouthPac;Tropical Disturbance 04F (INVEST 93P)

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SouthPac;Tropical Disturbance 04F (INVEST 93P)

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:35 am

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Friday 22nd December 2017
Next Issue: 0400 UTC Saturday 23rd December 2017
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in each of the next three days, TILL 25th
December, 2017:
Tropical Disturbance 04F [1004HPA] was analyzed near 15.8S 172..2E at 0300UTC today. It is
moving southeast at 07 knots. The potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone in the next
three days is:
Saturday 23rd December
TD04F is expected to lie in the shaded region. The potential for TD04F to develop into tropical
cyclones is MODERATE


http://www.met.gov.fj/tc_outlook.pdf
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Re: SouthPac;Tropical Disturbance 04F

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:13 pm

Image

Image

Image

Sheared storm.
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SPAC: INVEST 93P

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:21 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.7S 174E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 221836Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EXPOSED LLCC,
AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG
OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, 93P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BORDERING ON HIGH VWS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ONLY A
SHALLOW LAYER OF 26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND
SSTS DECREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
HAS 93P AS A BORDERLINE WARM CORE SYSTEM, LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO
COLD-CORE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH WEAKENING PROJECTED AFTER 1-2
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: SouthPac;Tropical Disturbance 04F (INVEST 93P)

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:49 pm

Saturday 930am EDT
Image
Looking at the sat-pic fiji is getting some heavy rainfall over the islands.
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Re: SouthPac;Tropical Disturbance 04F (INVEST 93P)

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:42 pm

ASCAT has some 30 kt winds SE of the center.

Image
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Re: SouthPac;Tropical Depression

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:30 am

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