WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:30 am

Ishigakijima recorded 992.8 hPa this morning.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:33 am

Tropical Storm 07W in it's closest approach brought winds gusting close to 50 mph to Naha today.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#23 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:38 am

You can clearly see that this low is frontal on the ASCAT below.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:42 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#25 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:58 am

euro6208 wrote:How on earth did official JMA ignored direct observation and ASCAT?

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06141001
SATCON: MSLP = 988 hPa MSW = 43 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 41.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 50 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 120 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 992 hPa 32 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUN141040
CIMSS AMSU: 991 hPa 32 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 06140726
ATMS: 997.4 hPa 33.5 knots Date: 06140527
SSMIS: 984.0 hPa 48.0 knots Date: 06141001
CIRA ATMS: 1001 hPa 27 knots Date: 06140527


Because this is a frontal system. JMA issued a gale warning indicating maximum winds of 35 knots and classified it as an extratropical low.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:02 am

NotoSans wrote:
euro6208 wrote:How on earth did official JMA ignored direct observation and ASCAT?

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06141001
SATCON: MSLP = 988 hPa MSW = 43 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 41.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 50 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 120 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 992 hPa 32 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUN141040
CIMSS AMSU: 991 hPa 32 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 06140726
ATMS: 997.4 hPa 33.5 knots Date: 06140527
SSMIS: 984.0 hPa 48.0 knots Date: 06141001
CIRA ATMS: 1001 hPa 27 knots Date: 06140527


Because this is a frontal system. JMA issued a gale warning indicating maximum winds of 35 knots and classified it as an extratropical low.


Keep them excuses coming. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#27 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:05 am

euro6208 wrote:
NotoSans wrote:
euro6208 wrote:How on earth did official JMA ignored direct observation and ASCAT?

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06141001
SATCON: MSLP = 988 hPa MSW = 43 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 41.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 50 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 120 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 992 hPa 32 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUN141040
CIMSS AMSU: 991 hPa 32 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 06140726
ATMS: 997.4 hPa 33.5 knots Date: 06140527
SSMIS: 984.0 hPa 48.0 knots Date: 06141001
CIRA ATMS: 1001 hPa 27 knots Date: 06140527


Because this is a frontal system. JMA issued a gale warning indicating maximum winds of 35 knots and classified it as an extratropical low.


Keep them excuses coming. :lol:


Can you give us any evidence showing that the system is NOT frontal? As wxman has said the ASCAT clearly shows that the system is attached to a front, hence it is not a tropical cyclone.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#28 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:28 am

NotoSans wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
NotoSans wrote:
Because this is a frontal system. JMA issued a gale warning indicating maximum winds of 35 knots and classified it as an extratropical low.


Keep them excuses coming. :lol:


Can you give us any evidence showing that the system is NOT frontal? As wxman has said the ASCAT clearly shows that the system is attached to a front, hence it is not a tropical cyclone.


Even if that is not a front, it's still a trough emanating from the system, meaning its circulation isn't quite organized to be a TC
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#29 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:42 am

Image


:uarrow: Radar loop before it left the water East of Taiwan
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:42 pm

It might have briefly been tropical (partial ASCAT pass on the previous page), but that more recent ASCAT pass is definitely not something to classify tropically.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#31 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:28 pm

I'm definitely not against JTWC classifying this system as 07W as it had clearly been tropical before, but when the maximum sustained winds reached gale force the system had already been attached to a front. This was very evident on ASCAT and therefore JMA classified it as an extratropical low with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. I don't see how JMA was ignoring ASCAT or such argument was just an excuse, and I would be glad to see some concrete evidence showing that this system was non-frontal.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:48 pm

Image

Final warning issued a few hours ago on TS 07W.

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 141201Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND SEVERAL 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES AND IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50
TO 60 KNOTS). A 140900Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION
SHOWS THAT TS 07W IS LOSING ANY REMAINING WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT
TS 07W IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH. TS 07W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
(EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:41 pm

Gaemi > < Unnamed TS. Both with frontal characteristics yet one wasn't upgraded. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#34 Postby NotoSans » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:46 am

euro6208 wrote:Gaemi > < Unnamed TS. Both with frontal characteristics yet one wasn't upgraded. :lol:


I hope this post won't be regarded as the so-called 'excuses', but I think it is very important to distinguish between 'the system being completely frontal' and 'the system having frontal characteristics'.

One example would be Hurricane Sandy back in 2012. The hurricane started to develop frontal characteristics after passing Cuba, but the hurricane was only classified as extratropical when a front was wrapped into the core of the hurricane.

For 07W, the ASCAT has shown that a front had been wrapped into the core of the system when gale-force winds started to occur. Meanwhile, for Gaemi, the system started to develop frontal characteristics when it was undergoing ETT, and the ETT was completed when a front had been wrapped into the core of the system. This is the difference between 'a completely frontal system' and 'a system developing frontal characteristics', and therefore the different classification by JMA.

Thus, if you are arguing that JMA has been wrong with these two systems, you can either give us concrete evidence showing that a front had not been wrapped into the core of 07W, or the opposite had occurred on Gaemi when it was named. Otherwise, I really hope you can spend some time on understanding others' posts and arguments, even though they may be against your own opinion.
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