ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113761
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:44 pm

5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective
banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The
system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer
co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now
being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier
ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler
waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen
the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the
expected increase in the cyclone's forward speed is likely to result
in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast
calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with
little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still
predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and
the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night.

Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving
045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving
northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance
remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the
previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 43.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113761
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:45 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection associated with Ernesto has increased in both coverage
and intensity since the last advisory, with a large convective band
wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the system.
However, recent scatterometer data suggests that this has not yet
resulted in strengthening, with winds of 35-40 kt observed about
80 n mi southeast of the center. Based mainly on the scatterometer
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

While Ernesto is in a warm moist air mass to the east of a
mid-latitude cyclone near Newfoundland, the forecast track quickly
takes it over sea surface temperatures that will decrease to near
15C in 24 h. This should lead to the dissipation of the convection
and to Ernesto becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 36-48 h, the
post-tropical cyclone should merge with a frontal zone, with the
resulting extratropical low dissipating between 48-72 h. Overall,
the new intensity forecast is nudged slightly downward from the
previous forecast, as the guidance no longer shows significant
strengthening. Given the increased convection, though, some
short-lived strengthening could occur in the next 12 h. In addition,
the current trends have led to the time of Ernesto becoming
post-tropical being moved back 12 h.

The initial motion is now 055/19. The cyclone should accelerate
further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the
mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical
model guidance remains tightly clustered and, as with the previous
advisory, little change was made to the track forecast. On the
forecast track, Ernesto or its remnants should approach Ireland and
the United Kingdom in about 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 44.1N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3709
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: Eastern Dallas County, TX

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:47 am

Hooray!!!

It always bugs me when named subtropical storms never become tropical. :lol:
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

Click here to join us in Storm2k.org's official (and operational!) chatroom!

Rules for the Storm2k.org chatroom

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113761
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:03 am

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto is maintaining its strength and status as a tropical storm
despite being over very cool 21 deg C waters. Deep convection
remains well organized in a curved band that wraps across the
eastern half of the circulation. The system is likely benefiting
from a moist and unstable airmass, which seems to be the reason why
Ernesto has held onto tropical storm status longer than expected.
The initial wind speed is again held at 40 kt, using a blend of the
latest satellite intensity estimates.

The convective organization is not expected to last much longer as
Ernesto is tracking over steadily colder waters and will also be
moving into an environment of higher shear. These hostile
environmental conditions should cause the system to lose its
tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours, when the
cyclone is forecast to be over SSTs of around 15 deg C. The
post-tropical low is expected to gradually decay before it merges
with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom in about 48 hours.

Ernesto is now well embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and the
latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 22 kt. An even
faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected until
the system merges with the frontal zone. The models remain tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 45.6N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 50.4N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/1800Z 52.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 573
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:10 pm

KInd of just impressed that both him and Debby were at least around for two days
0 likes   
I'm wide awake

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113761
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:38 pm

Still hanging on at 49.1N.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with
deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more
separated from the low-level center. However, there is still enough
organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a
little longer. The most recent satellite estimates and earlier
ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ernesto
will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become
post-tropical this evening. Little change in strength is predicted
during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly
across the northern Atlantic. Global models indicate that the
cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the
system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central
portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning.

The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt. Now that the
system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid
northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs. There has been little change to the track
guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 49.1N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1414
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:42 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
storm_in_a_teacup
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 217
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:01 pm
Location: I bounce between L.A. & Houston

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:43 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Image


It looks way too much like an embryo to me :eek:
1 likes   
I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5326
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:35 pm

Ernesto is so far North that its TS icon just barely shows up on the NHC map! :lol:

Image
5 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113761
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:36 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated
after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return,
which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or
less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early
Saturday.

Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate
that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the
low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a
large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and
on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is
forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it
approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night.
The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it
moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early
Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion
should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to
the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 50.4N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 52.3N 18.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 19/0000Z 54.1N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1361
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:39 pm

Not often you see advisories on a tropical system north of 50 degrees latitude.
1 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5326
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:50 pm

Since this thread is pretty much dead here is the only other instance that I know of where the TS icon is cut from the map. TS Grace in October 2009.

Image
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113761
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:57 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation
is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto
has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce
35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to
slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland
and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical
cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland
and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion
should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and
wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met
Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued
by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 51.9N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
DioBrando
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

#54 Postby DioBrando » Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:18 am

you ok there?
Image
4 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cvalkan4 and 2 guests