ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Kazmit]

12z Euro Ensemble EPS



12z GFS Ensemble GEFS

Both are big shifts west compared to the ensembles from a couple days ago. I will really need to keep an eye on it.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS at 102hrs looking at the 500mb steering is very close to a no recurve scenario but it all depends on the ridge

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 0zGFS at 102hrs looking at the 500mb steering is very close to a no recurve scenario but it all depends on the ridge

could be wrong, but i feel that the gfs breaks the ridge down a bit too quickly and also turns the system into the ridge a bit too quickly.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS at 102hrs looking at the 500mb steering is very close to a no recurve scenario but it all depends on the ridge

could be wrong, but i feel that the gfs breaks the ridge down a bit too quickly and also turns the system into the ridge a bit too quickly.

It’s 3 main biases of the GFS breaking down ridges too quickly, deepening troughs too much and in some cases having a system move through the ridge

[USTropics]

ECMWF 00z back to showing a weaker Florence in the medium-long range forecast, which has resulted in a shallower steering current and less latitude:

[LarryWx]

Boy, at least for the time being it's really gonna be an ebb and flow game of inches. So much dependent on how model run after run projection of the fluctuation of N.W. Atlantic mid level heights ultimately plays out. Timing really is everything as we watch model runs depicting each fairly quick moving short wave within the broader picture of a predominantly progressive zonal pattern over the Eastern CONUS. During so many past years we'd seem to have a long wave pattern that largely protected the Eastern Seaboard with each short wave trough that would drop into place there. Ah yes such were the Ninel Conde days.....

Ah yes, Ninel Conde aka "rainstorm", an entertaining poster in a unique way. Anyone know where she/he is these days?

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF show Florence slowing down in response to the passing trough, but the full connection cannot be made. The result is similar to last night's ECMWF run, but a bit more north:

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro says Recurve not certain

[Hammy]

Emily 1993/Felix 1995? Or would it end up plowing into the Carolinas with that setup?

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles trend over past 7 runs:

[USTropics]

UKMET also has Florence weakening and a much more westward track:

[Blinhart]

So could be a possible Carolina or New England storm.

[toad strangler]

UKMET also has Florence weakening and a much more westward track:

That’s a very interesting track right there. Do you have the 500mb set up of the UKIE?

[gatorcane]

Latest plots. Look at all of the Euro ensembles sending this west:

[Blinhart]

UKMET also has Florence weakening and a much more westward track:

and Gordon into Central Texas Coast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: Emily 1993/Felix 1995? Or would it end up plowing into the Carolinas with that setup?

There's nothing but ridging over the US at that point, only route would be into the Carolinas.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Emily 1993/Felix 1995? Or would it end up plowing into the Carolinas with that setup?

There's nothing but ridging over the US at that point, only route would be into the Carolinas.

Well taking that 240 map verbatim Florence could be pushed right into extreme SC and even GA

[northjaxpro]

That's plausible for sure. It would all depend on the strength of the Bermuda ridge. It may be possible the ridge could be very strong to push Florence even west/southwest by that timeframe shown above. Definitely will have to monitor closely next week how the synoptics evolves.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Florence is struggling this morning, which is in line with what the ECMWF/UKMET is predicting. The GFS actually shows strengthening throughout the next 48 hours.

[tpinnola]

00z Euro run has a weak storm missing the Bermuda ridge and making a bee-line for the Carolinas. Maybe the ridge forming across the CON US will make it there in time to save the day?

Concerning trend non-the-less. Timing & strength of storm is everything.