ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Low cloud movement looks more organized over the last few hours. Next ASCAT should find a more defined center so we'll probably see an upgrade by tomorrow afternoon.

[cycloneye]

The most turning of clouds is around 14N.

[Ubuntwo]

I see lots of popcorn popping as the sun sets on 92L

looks every bit as good as Florence does now, lol!

Oh come on, it doesn't look that bad

[BYG Jacob]

^^That burst of convection makes it look like a TD

[Hammy]

I noticed on the faster loop that if you watch around 13N/33W there's a more pronounced west to east flow to the low clouds starting after 18z (ironically after the latest TWO came out).

I'm expecting to see the telltale "if this trend continues" line on the next one.

[Ubuntwo]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Starting to sound like 92L's going to end up being Isaac based on the recent STWO.

[ouragans]

Hi ouragans , what are you latest thoughts about 92 L?

Fine thanks. And you? I hope I can see you next week at the conference

Well 92L gives me gray hair. As you know, I'm very confident in Euro, and each run is different every 12 hours. One time, it makes 92L recurve sharply to the north, the following time, it's a Caribbean runner.

Euro at D-14 was over NE Caribbean. I'm waiting for D-7 forecast because that's where Euro is the best, knowing that if ECMWF, GFS and GFS-FV3 are right, the impact would be on Sept 14, near 0z.

My bet? Between St Lucia and Anguilla as a strong TS/weak H for Sept 14.

But we're 7 days out... and it will be long. The key: Florence

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined, although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet increased
much in organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Blown Away]

Euro/GFS don't do much with 92L... NHC seems pretty confident a TD will form...

[cycloneye]

Euro/GFS don't do much with 92L... NHC seems pretty confident a TD will form...

This is not the models thread but for the first part both develop a TS borderline Hurricane.

[SconnieCane]

Euro/GFS don't do much with 92L... NHC seems pretty confident a TD will form...

Seems to me the global ops frequently miss or are late with genesis of MDR TCs...only after there is an established system do they go great gangbusters with the weenie tracks and intensities.

[stormlover2013]

They develop it into a trop storm

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

I have not been logging on much this season, but have followed whats has been going on. A Long with the NHC increase of a storm forming I also noticed the track has shift from the red cone going WNW to more of a west track. This is a bit concerning for everyone down the road, at this point all we can do is watch and wait.

[SoupBone]

An area of low pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined, although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet increased
much in organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

They adjusted their official track south, with it heading almost due west for the next 5 days. Damn.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 142N, 334W, 25, 1008, LO

[Miami Storm Tracker]

As soup bone stated if the track has shifted west, it makes you wonder what Florence will do, since it was suppose to possibly create the weakness for 92 L to possibly move north.

[Gustywind]

92 L recap on SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/2345 UTC 14.2N 33.5W TOO WEAK 92L
06/1745 UTC 15.1N 31.7W T1.0/1.0 92L
06/1145 UTC 14.7N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/1745 UTC 13.1N 28.2W TOO WEAK 92L
05/1200 UTC 13.1N 27.0W T1.0/1.0 92L

[Gustywind]

Hi ouragans , what are you latest thoughts about 92 L?

Fine thanks. And you? I hope I can see you next week at the conference

Well 92L gives me gray hair. As you know, I'm very confident in Euro, and each run is different every 12 hours. One time, it makes 92L recurve sharply to the north, the following time, it's a Caribbean runner.

Euro at D-14 was over NE Caribbean. I'm waiting for D-7 forecast because that's where Euro is the best, knowing that if ECMWF, GFS and GFS-FV3 are right, the impact would be on Sept 14, near 0z.

My bet? Between St Lucia and Anguilla as a strong TS/weak H for Sept 14.

But we're 7 days out... and it will be long. The key: Florence

Ok Ouragans! I hope too, thanks. Very interresting forecast, cannot be more agree with you. Your bet seems well balanced. Looks like all the Leewards should already keep a little eye on this one, at least for now. OK for the date around Friday 14th September.
Euro has well performed for the moment. Yes Florence is the key too, interresting day ahead for sure. Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

They fixed the Best Track to have the latitude at 13.5N at 00z.It has been in that same latitude since 12z.

AL, 92, 2018090612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 312W, 25, 1008, LO
AL, 92, 2018090618, , BEST, 0, 135N, 325W, 25, 1008, LO
AL, 92, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 334W, 25, 1008, LO