ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Chris,

Thanks for that updated, I was just in the model board and saw the same posting. Someone had posted one a page or so back which I though showed the 3 to 5", now were talking the potential for a foot or more of rain. Just crazy

[Steve]

I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).

The 12Z UKMET is with the GFS now into FL peninsula see models thread.

Yeah, I noticed that. Except the GFS 12Z ends up taking it over toward Destin after swinging East and presumably being pushed back by high pressure off the SE Coast.

[CyclonicFury]

Most GEFS members are stronger and west of the operational. A few members are below 1000 mb.

[Dylan]

12z GEFS ensembles are well to the west of the operational GFS. East-central Gulf of Mexico.

[boca]

That graphic that gator posted goes thru June 4th passed the time forecasted of the 3 to 5” rainfall rates.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

12z GEFS ensembles are well to the west of the operational GFS. East-central Gulf of Mexico.

I think a track like what you forecasted is most likely. I was hoping for more sunshine this weekend after a very wet past seven days. A track like that would favor additional moisture being drawn up over Florida meaning heavy afternoon thunderstorms for me this weekend. The rain and thunderstorms we have been having have been unusual for May. We usually don’t have so much rain like this until August.

[Stormcenter]

I'm still on the fence as to whether or not to buy into ANY of what the models are spitting out track and strength wise. So far nothing to see there yet of significance so all of the dire
predictions of massive rainfall are just that. IMO

[Aric Dunn]

euro is farther west initially quite a bit now coming off the NW coast of the Yucatan this run. should be interesting.

[cycloneye]

The Canadian.

[HURRICANELONNY]

They never get these systems right. Especially the models. Just a broad low that probably won't turn into much. I'm making beach plans this weekend where I live in S. Fl. I'm betting on partly sunny with afternoon inland storms.

[Aric Dunn]

south central gulf at 72 hours..and better defined. moving slower..

[Steve]

The Canadian.

Yeah, the CMC pretty much just takes it due north up to Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties, Florida. It's in an alliance with the NAVGEM at the moment, the latter being more Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties so a hair farther west than the CMC. I think it's a reasonable output this far out. But of note, it does not move the low pressure back west and south - so no apparent loop like many of the other models (regardless of spread) are showing. CMC and NAVGEM are pretty much just north and out.

[AdamFirst]

Driving down from Palm Bay back to Port Saint Lucie today, all the ditches and retention ponds are really filled up on the sides of 95. The median of the road from Sebastian to Vero Beach is a nice decorative pond. We're beyond the point of filling up from the dry season.

[Aric Dunn]

it is about 12 hours slower this run. more defined and movie north..

[Aric Dunn]

120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..

[WeatherEmperor]

120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..

So it looks like the stronger the system gets the more West it goes and the weaker the system stays the more East it can go?

[NotSparta]

120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..

tropicaltidbits says 999mbs

[Aric Dunn]

120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..

tropicaltidbits says 999mbs

yeah that is low resolution. high res Euro will likely be a little bit lower.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro looks like it is back to a similar solution to a couple days ago. turning west near the coast. this run pretty keeps a somewhat coherent main circulation is slower allowing for things to change. interesting. the model spread widens a little. waiting for ensemble members now.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting steering currents drop from 120 to 144 hours. sitting right along the coast. if that were offshore the upper winds also have dropped with the euro. so if it were to survive offshore for long enough the environment improves..