ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Highteeld]

Both the Euro and the GFS are shifting west. What an ugly trend we are seeing right now... reminds me so much of what happened with Irma last year.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro would be a NorthCarolina/Virginia Capes to New England/Long Island track, and as a major I would think which could be something the NEUS hasn’t seen wind wise since 1954 and since the waters are much warmer than normal you wouldn’t get the normal weakening but less weakening which if the Euro is right the eastern seaboard from South Carolina to Nova Scotia will have to monitor the progress of Florence for the next week to 10 days

[Highteeld]

A very strong storm, too.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

[cycloneye]

One word (Yikes)

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

Except the windshield wipers keep going left not right

[toad strangler]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

Except the windshield wipers keep going left not right

Well this has been the case and nothing at 500mb as shown this will stop now. So.... at this range it’s much more prudent to acknowledge the 500mb set up than it is specific storm location. Florence continues to signal trouble for the E Coast

[chaser1]

Boy, at least for the time being it's really gonna be an ebb and flow game of inches. So much dependent on how model run after run projection of the fluctuation of N.W. Atlantic mid level heights ultimately plays out. Timing really is everything as we watch model runs depicting each fairly quick moving short wave within the broader picture of a predominantly progressive zonal pattern over the Eastern CONUS. During so many past years we'd seem to have a long wave pattern that largely protected the Eastern Seaboard with each short wave trough that would drop into place there. Ah yes such were the Ninel Conde days.....

Ah yes, Ninel Conde aka "rainstorm", an entertaining poster in a unique way. Anyone know where she/he is these days?

My guess is somewhere in Northern Thailand maybe? That does generally appear to be where the deepest longwave troughing appears to be right now in the N. Hemisphere

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

Except the windshield wipers keep going left not right

We might want to take those wipers into service.

[fox13weather]

One word (Yikes)

I'd have a nice early retirement if I got a dollar for every ten day forecast post that did not come close to verifying.

[fox13weather]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

Must be really good at playing darts too

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

I mean the area of Chesapeake Bay if one were to extrapolate the motion out beyond 240 hours. And yes, I'm totally aware of the fact it's 240 hours out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

Must be really good at playing darts too

More often than not when I play darts they go into my toe instead of the target, so take that for what it's worth

[fox13weather]

This would more than likely be a Chesapeake hit.

Windshield wiper effect in full force. Just going to have to wait and see. What's consistent is that through 120 hours Florence will struggle to survive.

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

I mean the area of Chesapeake Bay if one were to extrapolate the motion out beyond 240 hours. And yes, I'm totally aware of the fact it's 240 hours out.

Which means a 288 day forecast?? Why even try? Any idea on the margin of error on a FIVE day NHC forecast that includes data from ALL models? And you are naming specific areas TEN TO TWELVE days out based on one model??

[Hammy]

Something a bit troubling is that the Euro 216H point is very close to the earlier 240H location, which is some unsettling consistency that far out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

I mean the area of Chesapeake Bay if one were to extrapolate the motion out beyond 240 hours. And yes, I'm totally aware of the fact it's 240 hours out.

Which means a 288 day forecast?? Why even try? Any idea on the margin of error on a FIVE day NHC forecast that includes data from ALL models? And you are naming specific areas TEN TO TWELVE days out based on one model??

I see your point and I apologize. It was rash of me to narrow down a specific area.

[fox13weather]

I mean the area of Chesapeake Bay if one were to extrapolate the motion out beyond 240 hours. And yes, I'm totally aware of the fact it's 240 hours out.

Which means a 288 day forecast?? Why even try? Any idea on the margin of error on a FIVE day NHC forecast that includes data from ALL models? And you are naming specific areas TEN TO TWELVE days out based on one model??

I see your point and I apologize. It was rash of me to narrow down a specific area. Will delete the post.

Just understand the limits of our science. If the next few days zero in one on area then we raise an eyebrow. But it's way too far out to make any assumptions like that...

[Siker]

"More than likely a Chesapeake hit"?? Huh? While you are at it, can you nail it down to the county please.

I mean the area of Chesapeake Bay if one were to extrapolate the motion out beyond 240 hours. And yes, I'm totally aware of the fact it's 240 hours out.

Which means a 288 day forecast?? Why even try? Any idea on the margin of error on a FIVE day NHC forecast that includes data from ALL models? And you are naming specific areas TEN TO TWELVE days out based on one model??

I don’t see any harm, he’s just saying where that specific model run looks headed. He’s definitely fully aware that 10 days out is complete guesswork.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I mean the area of Chesapeake Bay if one were to extrapolate the motion out beyond 240 hours. And yes, I'm totally aware of the fact it's 240 hours out.

Which means a 288 day forecast?? Why even try? Any idea on the margin of error on a FIVE day NHC forecast that includes data from ALL models? And you are naming specific areas TEN TO TWELVE days out based on one model??

I don’t see any harm, he’s just saying where that specific model run looks headed. He’s definitely fully aware that 10 days out is complete guesswork.

No, he has a fair point. To the untrained eye, me making statements like "Storm X is going here per this model!!" generates hype and fear and, subsequently, lessens the quality of discussion. I've been tracking storms for over 15 years, throwing darts around for a 240 hour forecast and claiming a hit is idiotic on my part.