ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 733
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1841 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat May 26, 2018 7:50 pm

one note to take away from dropsonde in COC... we are seeing a warm core now. Why we don't know how far it extends, we do see warm air being lifted up 2kft?
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1975
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:
Contact CyclonicFury

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1842 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 26, 2018 8:07 pm

Will likely be 40-45 kt at the next advisory based on recon.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Top
slamdaddy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 111
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:57 am
Location: Gautier, MS

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1843 Postby slamdaddy » Sat May 26, 2018 8:11 pm

Looking at the satty loop...may we see more of north-northwest track by morning ?
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1844 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 26, 2018 8:24 pm

pretty good NNE motion with this last pass. very likely tucking under that convection again.


center is keywest radar range
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat May 26, 2018 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
bella_may
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 881
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1845 Postby bella_may » Sat May 26, 2018 8:24 pm

Safe to say this is gonna go east of mobile now? Or should we keep watching?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139346
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1846 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 8:25 pm

Legit SFMR readings.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1847 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat May 26, 2018 8:26 pm

Looks like maybe another reformation eastward?

I have seen right sided systems in the past that seem to keep reforming toward the convection
until a stronger center forms.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19171
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1848 Postby tolakram » Sat May 26, 2018 8:26 pm

Keep watching as long as you are in the cone.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1849 Postby robbielyn » Sat May 26, 2018 8:31 pm

Looking at IR the moisture field looks like swiss cheese with all the dry air being entrained.
1 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D
Top
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 733
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1850 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat May 26, 2018 8:32 pm

looks like big jump to NE. Guess i was right, the first center was fading and the one to ene was forming? Under that strong convection?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
gulf701
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 58
Age: 74
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:43 pm
Location: Wewahitchka, FL

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1851 Postby gulf701 » Sat May 26, 2018 8:34 pm

As a Vol. Fire Chief, the current tracking trends is causing me to reevaluate our coastal department's preparedness to plan for increased wind and rain impacts. With the holiday crowed, this is going to be a tough call for the coastal counties EM's and Commissioners. Gulf County declared a Local State of Emergency based on Adv. #6.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1852 Postby AdamFirst » Sat May 26, 2018 8:35 pm

Anyone have a good site for satellite imagery? The NHC is showing stuff from this afternoon still.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022
Top
slamdaddy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 111
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:57 am
Location: Gautier, MS

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1853 Postby slamdaddy » Sat May 26, 2018 8:35 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:looks like big jump to NE. Guess i was right, the first center was fading and the one to ene was forming? Under that strong convection?


chest thump :sun:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 578
Age: 49
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:
Contact crownweather

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1854 Postby crownweather » Sat May 26, 2018 8:38 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Anyone have a good site for satellite imagery? The NHC is showing stuff from this afternoon still.



http://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
1 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Top
Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1568
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1855 Postby Javlin » Sat May 26, 2018 8:43 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:looks like big jump to NE. Guess i was right, the first center was fading and the one to ene was forming? Under that strong convection?

Don't know if that is a reformation but shear possibly?
0 likes   
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7287
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1856 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 26, 2018 8:43 pm

latest...Becoming much better organized as convection blows up over the circulation. Should be tropical shortly.

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1857 Postby ronjon » Sat May 26, 2018 8:48 pm

Winds gusting to 39 mph at key west NAS.

https://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=FLZ078&local_place=Key%20West%20Airport%20FL&zoneid=EDT&offset=14400
0 likes   
Top
jdjaguar
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 505
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:07 pm
Location: Jacksonville Beach, FL

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1858 Postby jdjaguar » Sat May 26, 2018 8:48 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Anyone have a good site for satellite imagery? The NHC is showing stuff from this afternoon still.

What happened to the NHC satellite feeds?

I've been viewing the various feeds for almost 2 decades.

Why was the decision made to limit the feeds?

Who made that terrible decision?
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1859 Postby GCANE » Sat May 26, 2018 8:51 pm

Very high rain rate (60mm/hr).
Rates typical of a strong eyewall.
Note recon's measurement of the highest rain rate relative to surface pressure.

Concentrated lightning on the strongest cell.

Strengthening quickly.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139346
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon Discussion

#1860 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 9:02 pm

Oh boy,I was out of internet for a while and nobody kept posting the data.I guess I will go.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests