ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Look like another FL Panhandle hit on the 18z GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

rapidly deeping up to landfall. major hurricane

[chaser1]

Models seem to think it's Destin-ed to hit the panhandle.

'Course, who knows where future runs might St. "Mark(s) the spot"

[chaser1]

rapidly deeping up to landfall. major hurricane

Yikes!!! 957mb?? Small and potent. Nothing worse then an intensifying 'cane right up to landfall. I'm wondering what the strongest N. Gulf Coast 'cane this late has been up to this point?

[Dean4Storms]

958mb?

[Frank P]

H Nate from Oct of last year had a very similar forecast track early on as the GFS just ran for 91L, but never made the NNE to NE turn as originally forecast for Nate by the NHC.. runs will continue to bend right and left over time for the next couple of days, of greater concern is how strong the system gets... should raise the pucker pressure of most NGOM residents... 100 mile difference either way could really wind up causing a bad next couple of months for some if the intensity comes to fruition... that’s a big if right now...

[SconnieCane]

Second run in a row GFS has said "Bye shear, hello Hurricane Michael!"

[Aric Dunn]

comes in at 120 mph....

[stormlover2013]

I dont believe the gfs one bet!!!! Remember just this morning it showed nothing I do think we get a trop storm out of this though..guys don’t model jump just go with nhc right now, most consistent modes have been nam,cmc, and euro.. I know nam and cmc crazy

[KUEFC]

How come people seem to distrust the opinion of the professional mets on here?,

[Ubuntwo]

rapidly deeping up to landfall. major hurricane

Yikes!!! 957mb?? Small and potent. Nothing worse then an intensifying 'cane right up to landfall. I'm wondering what the strongest N. Gulf Coast 'cane this late has been up to this point?

I'm guessing Opal?

[Stormcenter]

GFS being the GFs.....won’t buy it unless other models
jump aboard.

[boulderrr]

GFS persistently showed Florence hitting as a cat 4/5...

[ronjon]

Yikes 18z ICON.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100518&fh=222

[Kazmit]

GFS persistently showed Florence hitting as a cat 4/5...

Latest run would be a cat 3. Still would be a dangerous storm though.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, been a slow trend with the models but they all seem to be weakening the weak sharp trough over the gulf faster opening up to an upper high to build.

[bella_may]

Any chance it gets a little farther west?

[KUEFC]

Yikes 18z ICON.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100518&fh=222

And how reliable has this been?, I am a complete and utter novice at all of this, but this has had no consistency whatsoever over the last few days

[Aric Dunn]

Any chance it gets a little farther west?

yes. texas is still in play..

[Cypresso]

Any chance it gets a little farther west?

I am not sure, and certainly not a professional, however our Houston meteorologists are telling us to keep an eye on it. I always do anytime there is anything going on. Far too many decades of dealing with the tropics to call anything solid as stone.