CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like it will be a close call as to whether this is a hurricane when it reaches the Islands

[Kingarabian]

Tropical storm watches for Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA45 PHFO 100335
TCDCP5

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 38...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
500 PM HST Sun Sep 09 2018

Olivia has continued to exhibit an indistinct but persistent eye
feature over the past several hours. A 2120 UTC AMSR2 and a 0050 UTC
SSMIS pass showed a partial eyewall, mainly in the southeastern
semicircle, along with what appears to be a developing banding
feature to the northeast and east of the center. The subjective
intensity estimates from SAB, JTWC, and PHFO were unanimous at 4.5,
and ADT gave a 4.3. Have maintained the current intensity of 65 kt
for now, pending more data from the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission this evening.

Neglecting wobbles, Olivia is moving 270/10. This due west motion
is being induced by a deep layer ridge to the north and northwest
of the tropical cyclone. In 12 to 24 hours, the ridge is expected
to strengthen and build southward ahead of Olivia, forcing the
cyclone on a slightly slower and more south of due west motion that
will persist through about 96 hours. Unfortunately, the track
guidance actually shows slightly more spread for this cycle. The
ECMWF, Canadian, and NAVGEM models are on the northern side of the
envelope, while the GFS now appears to be a southern outlier. The
consensus guidance splits the difference and remained very close to
the previous forecast. Thus, made very little change to the
forecast track. However, the spread in the guidance and resulting
uncertainty demonstrates the importance of not focusing too much on
the exact track as Olivia moves across the islands.

There's also little change to the forecast thinking in terms of
intensity. Sea surface temperatures will be marginal, but gradually
increasing along the track as Olivia approaches the main Hawaiian
Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain weak over the tropical
cyclone through the next 24 hours, then begin gradually increasing,
approaching 30 knots by 72 hours. All of the intensity guidance
depicts weakening after 36 hours, but at somewhat different rates.
Our forecast depicts Olivia weakening faster than HCCA and LGEM,
but not as fast as most of the consensus guidance, HMON, and SHIPS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and
intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on all the main
Hawaiian Islands should continue preparing for the likelihood of
direct impacts from this system this week. Those impacts could
include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds, large and
dangerous surf, and storm surge.

2. Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far
from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii
can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 21.7N 146.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.7N 147.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 21.5N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 151.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 20.9N 153.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 19.9N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 19.3N 163.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 20.1N 168.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

[CrazyC83]

810
URPN15 KNHC 100552
AF301 0417E OLIVIA HDOB 19 20180910
054330 2152N 14643W 6969 03097 9987 +103 +000 041056 058 042 002 00
054400 2151N 14641W 6966 03094 9972 +107 -000 041059 060 042 002 00
054430 2150N 14640W 6967 03088 9964 +111 +000 039061 061 041 001 00
054500 2149N 14638W 6976 03071 9948 +117 +001 034060 062 043 001 00
054530 2148N 14637W 6966 03078 9926 +130 +002 029060 062 049 001 00
054600 2147N 14635W 6965 03063 9904 +134 +004 024058 062 058 002 00
054630 2146N 14634W 6979 03032 9886 +135 +007 025061 063 059 003 00
054700 2146N 14632W 6960 03035 9870 +130 +011 024066 067 060 006 00
054730 2144N 14630W 6968 03005 9838 +140 +011 022064 067 062 003 00
054800 2144N 14629W 6964 02993 9817 +141 +011 026051 063 062 002 00
054830 2143N 14627W 6967 02976 9796 +148 +012 030034 042 050 002 00
054900 2142N 14625W 6966 02968 9792 +143 +014 033024 031 026 002 03
054930 2141N 14624W 6967 02962 9798 +133 +019 048011 018 016 000 00
055000 2140N 14622W 6967 02962 9801 +130 +022 056002 008 013 001 00
055030 2138N 14621W 6970 02964 9799 +133 +028 233006 008 014 001 00
055100 2137N 14620W 6964 02972 9799 +136 +031 244021 026 021 001 00
055130 2136N 14618W 6967 02976 9812 +132 +032 239029 032 042 001 00
055200 2134N 14617W 6968 02989 9841 +120 +034 237044 050 053 002 00
055230 2133N 14616W 6969 03006 9873 +112 +035 236054 056 053 002 00
055300 2132N 14614W 6962 03034 9897 +106 +033 236058 060 053 005 00
$$
;

Olivia is definitely strengthening; pressure down to 979mb, winds higher than earlier.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure looks to be down to 979 now.

[CrazyC83]

361
URPN12 KNHC 100616
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172018
A. 10/05:50:10Z
B. 21.66 deg N 146.37 deg W
C. 700 mb 2923 m
D. 981 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. E36/20/16
H. 62 kt
I. 300 deg 7 nm 05:48:00Z
J. 023 deg 67 kt
K. 301 deg 10 nm 05:47:00Z
L. 53 kt
M. 135 deg 10 nm 05:53:00Z
N. 225 deg 64 kt
O. 134 deg 16 nm 05:54:30Z
P. 11 C / 3052 m
Q. 15 C / 3046 m
R. 1 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF301 0417E OLIVIA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 67 KT 301 / 10 NM 05:47:00Z
;

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure looks to be down to 979 now.

Do most houses have hurricane shutters in Hawaii like we do in Florida?

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to see what the NE quad has.

[Kingarabian]

Pressure looks to be down to 979 now.

Do most houses have hurricane shutters in Hawaii like we do in Florida?

Nope. Most houses built before 1999 can't handle a Cat.1. Lots of the houses here have tin roofs.

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure looks to be down to 979 now.

Do most houses have hurricane shutters in Hawaii like we do in Florida?

Nope. Most houses built before 1999 can't handle a Cat.1. Lots of the houses here have tin roofs.

Wow thats not good. Have they updates the building codes for newer homes? Here we have some older houses but they are still built pretty tough and they almost all have shutters regardless of how old they are. But I guess canes aren't such a norm in Hawaii outside of this year.

[Kingarabian]

572
URPN15 KNHC 100722
AF301 0417E OLIVIA HDOB 28 20180910
071330 2209N 14607W 6965 03147 0045 +094 +020 132052 053 038 002 00
071400 2208N 14609W 6969 03142 0045 +093 +020 133054 055 038 002 00
071430 2207N 14610W 6967 03140 0043 +091 +021 130055 056 040 003 00
071500 2206N 14611W 6967 03136 0039 +091 +023 132053 055 039 003 00
071530 2204N 14613W 6966 03134 0032 +095 +023 132053 054 039 002 00
071600 2203N 14614W 6969 03128 0029 +094 +023 132056 057 040 006 00
071630 2202N 14615W 6966 03127 0039 +081 +023 131056 058 044 011 00
071700 2201N 14617W 6968 03121 0029 +085 +021 130058 060 047 007 00
071730 2159N 14618W 6965 03117 0024 +083 +017 129059 059 046 009 00
071800 2158N 14619W 6966 03108 0022 +080 +015 130063 065 050 015 00
071830 2157N 14621W 6966 03101 0014 +079 +014 135069 071 055 020 00
071900 2156N 14622W 6967 03093 0006 +077 +015 138069 070 054 012 00
071930 2155N 14623W 6964 03086 9984 +086 +015 136071 071 053 008 00
072000 2154N 14624W 6967 03075 9969 +093 +013 132069 070 057 009 00
072030 2152N 14626W 6970 03062 9972 +082 +013 135076 081 062 018 00
072100 2151N 14627W 6961 03057 9947 +087 +015 143078 082 067 029 00
072130 2150N 14628W 6970 03027 9928 +085 +017 142075 076 071 043 03
072200 2149N 14629W 6965 03009 9905 +086 +019 144078 085 074 041 00
072230 2148N 14630W 6964 03001 9891 +085 +022 143061 070 075 035 03
072300 2147N 14632W 6971 02982 9853 +106 +025 137049 057 073 014 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Definitely has strengthened compared to 12 hours ago. Winds look like they're near 70kts

[Kingarabian]

641
URPN15 KNHC 100733
AF301 0417E OLIVIA HDOB 29 20180910
072330 2145N 14633W 6967 02974 9809 +134 +029 130039 046 054 005 00
072400 2144N 14634W 6970 02965 9790 +144 +033 127031 036 040 002 00
072430 2143N 14636W 6963 02968 9777 +150 +038 121018 027 028 002 00
072500 2141N 14637W 6973 02955 9781 +145 +045 130010 014 015 000 03
072530 2140N 14638W 6966 02964 9785 +141 +053 177003 007 012 001 00
072600 2139N 14639W 6966 02966 9800 +130 +059 269010 011 018 001 00
072630 2137N 14640W 6970 02967 9813 +121 +064 281024 029 021 001 00
072700 2136N 14641W 6964 02983 9811 +132 +065 292033 035 031 001 00
072730 2135N 14642W 6967 02991 9826 +130 +067 297052 064 045 004 00
072800 2134N 14644W 6970 02999 9855 +116 +068 295064 065 051 006 00
072830 2133N 14645W 6961 03019 9872 +110 +068 297062 065 057 005 00
072900 2132N 14646W 6970 03022 9890 +109 +068 301062 063 057 005 00
072930 2131N 14647W 6967 03038 9906 +106 +067 303060 062 054 004 00
073000 2129N 14648W 6974 03040 9925 +101 +065 303057 058 050 005 00
073030 2128N 14650W 6965 03063 9932 +105 +060 302057 058 047 004 00
073100 2127N 14651W 6964 03077 9943 +112 +054 305055 057 046 004 00
073130 2126N 14652W 6968 03084 9955 +110 +051 302052 054 044 003 00
073200 2125N 14653W 6970 03088 9967 +107 +049 301049 051 041 001 00
073230 2124N 14655W 6963 03102 9972 +108 +047 306048 049 040 002 00
073300 2123N 14656W 6973 03094 9977 +109 +047 308045 047 037 001 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Down to 977.7 on this pass. Let's see what the VDM confirms.

[Kingarabian]

CIMSS showing favorable to moderate shear values between Oahu and the Big Island.



SHIPS does not show the killer shear until about 60 hours which is when Olivia would be about to make landfall.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 70 68 64 58 49 42 37 33 27 24
V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 70 68 64 58 49 42 37 33 27 24
V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 70 68 65 60 53 46 41 36 33 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 4 4 10 14 18 25 29 32 37 41 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 2 9 11 8 11 5 0 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 284 315 301 263 239 237 240 255 263 268 265 255 244
SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 136 142 145 147 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -54.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11
700-500 MB RH 28 28 29 29 29 29 30 34 34 38 40 41 44

So I continue to say that there is a good chance that Olivia can make landfall as a minimal Cat.1 hurricane -- especially if we see more robust strengthening within the next 48 hours.

[OahuWahine]

Will it continue strengthening or is this it? Trying to decide how worried I should be. Still have my supplies from Lane, so there really isn't anything else I can do.

[Huaka]

I hope she doesn't RI. The place where I'm at would not be able to handle anything at all.

[OahuWahine]

Saw this earlier and thought it was pretty funny. I've never seen anyone encourage people not to buy too many supplies. Guess the stores are running low on spam and beer

[OahuWahine]

I hope she doesn't RI. The place where I'm at would not be able to handle anything at all.

Which island?

[Huaka]

I hope she doesn't RI. The place where I'm at would not be able to handle anything at all.

Which island?

I live on Oahu, near Waikiki. The house I live in was built in the 1950s.