ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
MacTavish wrote:plasticup wrote:MacTavish wrote:None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds
http://i67.tinypic.com/o8az9k.png
Sounds right to me. Hurricanes don't do well over land. What is your concern about that?
Winds should be higher at landfall with that pressure. It will weaken over land, but there will be a corresponding rise in pressure. I understand what you were saying.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Vdogg wrote:No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.
How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
wayoutfront wrote:Vdogg wrote:No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.
How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees
NHC 8:00 Update.
8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Ken711 wrote:wayoutfront wrote:Vdogg wrote:No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.
How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees
NHC 8:00 Update.8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Vdogg wrote:Ken711 wrote:wayoutfront wrote:
How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees
NHC 8:00 Update.8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.
So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Curious. Did any model show this ULL off Florida and what would be the thinking of the track? Wondering if it would shove it more north into that high pressure causing it to stall closer to the pamlico sound causing more flooding further north by just a tick. I realize there's no support for this in the models but I don't remember any talk about this ULL either. As I said just curious.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
invest man wrote:Vdogg wrote:Ken711 wrote:
NHC 8:00 Update.
With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.
So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM
Not a met, but in all my 20+ years of weathering storms in this area, I haven't quite seen that. The models don't seem to sure about it either. Not impossible, but definitely unusual. I feel like the left hook and stall inland scenario is far more plausible.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Vdogg wrote:invest man wrote:Vdogg wrote:With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.
So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM
Not a met, but in all my 20+ years of weathering storms in this area, I haven't quite seen that. The models don't seem to sure about it either. Not impossible, but definitely unusual. I feel like the left hook and stall inland scenario is far more plausible.
It seems to be moving quickly on that 315 degree heading and wondering if it keeps it going in that direction until landfall perhaps near MHC hook left and stall inland. Not a met either a native of 55 yrs to the crystal coast area!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
invest man wrote:Vdogg wrote:invest man wrote:So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM
Not a met, but in all my 20+ years of weathering storms in this area, I haven't quite seen that. The models don't seem to sure about it either. Not impossible, but definitely unusual. I feel like the left hook and stall inland scenario is far more plausible.
It seems to be moving quickly on that 315 degree heading and wondering if it keeps it going in that direction until landfall perhaps near MHC hook left and stall inland. Not a met either a native of 55 yrs to the crystal coast area!
Wait to see the 0z models come out, they will have the latest track and speed among all their other input data.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
00z early guidance appears now locked in on track into NC w/o the big crazy loop & extreme SW dive...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Blown Away wrote:00z early guidance appears now locked in on track into NC w/o the big crazy loop & extreme SW dive...
Those tracks are flattening. It's possible we come full circle back to the ride up central NC/VA solution.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Vdogg wrote:
Ok, I'll bite. What's TCPL?
You can see all the details here
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
But basically it's a linear regression model that just uses very recent info of this storm ( current trajectory, pressure etc ) so not a major player. Also, that clp5 is just old climatology which again is not really a major player definitely not dyamic predictive like math solution as others are.
IMHO best to follow are gfs & euro ensembles, and how nhc address them in their discussions at 5:00 and 11:00
Last edited by smithtim on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Vdogg wrote:GTStorm wrote:Ok, I'll bite. What's TCPL?
ThatCuriousPurpleLine?
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I'm not a meteorologist, I'm an electronics engineer. While I can probably fix your toaster oven, you're not going to learn about storms from me!
New Mexico had no hurricanes. Then I moved to NC right before Fran.....
New Mexico had no hurricanes. Then I moved to NC right before Fran.....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
LOL
Oh, hey now, stop filling up the models thread with off topic stuff please.
Oh, hey now, stop filling up the models thread with off topic stuff please.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
GFS started on Tidbits. It’s only out to 12 hours yet.
Fwiw NAM and RGEM show it weakening as it pushes southwest. It’s not that far inland both both reduce the intensity fairly quickly.
Fwiw NAM and RGEM show it weakening as it pushes southwest. It’s not that far inland both both reduce the intensity fairly quickly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Trapped at 30 hours. it’s moving still though slowing at this timeframe.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=30
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=30
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