ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well on its way. should be an interesting system to track. possible very long track system.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/api/image?products=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03.100&width=836&height=464&client=RealEarth&background=terrain&labels=line&center=7.874680033319339,-19.758692325767015&zoom=6&timeproduct=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03&timespan=-25t&animate=true&animationspeed=100

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

What does that mean?? Just curious...

The outflow boundary? To be honest I'm not entirely sure, but I've heard it mentioned on here in the past that they can be a sign of dry air ingestion. Promets, please correct me if I am wrong, lol.

[kaykayjs]

Watching this one from Central Florida

[wxman57]

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

What does that mean?? Just curious...

The outflow boundary? To be honest I'm not entirely sure, but I've heard it mentioned on here in the past that they can be a sign of dry air ingestion. Promets, please correct me if I am wrong, lol.

Outflow boundaries form when a thunderstorm complex collapses. The air sinks, hits the ground, and spreads outward away from the collapsed storm. While outflow boundaries are quite common in thunderstorms all over the glob, their formation associated with a tropical disturbance may indicate that the disturbance is encountering a more hostile environment, which may lead to weakening. In addition, air flowing away from a disturbance disrupts any inflow, again, weakening the disturbance/storm.

Here's an example from Ernesto in 2012:

[Abdullah]

Does anyone know, in the North Atlantic Basin, the Southernmost Forming Tropical System? It's at 6°N!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Looking even better with convection built over the developing circ. Chances likely to go up at 8pm and even more at 2am.

[LarryWx]

Does anyone know, in the North Atlantic Basin, the Southernmost Forming Tropical System? It's at 6°N!!!

Per the link that has all of the 10 day maps, if this forms near or south of 6.5N, it would become the southernmost genesis on record back to 1851! There was only one near 7N:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/sep_1_10.png


The rest were ~7.5N or further north.


Edit: The furthest south was Isidore of 1990, 7.2N:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricanes/19 ... ic/isidore

[Blinhart]

Could this one actually go South of the Equator??? be a system South America needs to watch. I know there hasn't been many (if any) have hit South America outside the Caribbean. I could see this becoming TD in the next 24 hours if it can keep together as it gets further away from Africa

[Aric Dunn]

Could this one actually go South of the Equator??? be a system South America needs to watch. I know there hasn't been many (if any) have hit South America outside the Caribbean. I could see this becoming TD in the next 24 hours if it can keep together as it gets further away from Africa

Well, the steering flow as you approach the equator ( assuming the TC formed north of 4 Degrees then moved south somehow) is away from the equator. So essentially no it cannot as a "hurricane" anyway. Some weak low level vorts may be able to.

however the laws in fluid dynamics would allow for this to happen. but just very unlikely

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1043250640338599937

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Well on its way. should be an interesting system to track. possible very long track system.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/api/image?products=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03.100&width=836&height=464&client=RealEarth&background=terrain&labels=line&center=7.874680033319339,-19.758692325767015&zoom=6&timeproduct=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03&timespan=-25t&animate=true&animationspeed=100

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

Don’t assume its gender yet. You are fully aware they’re not mature enough to be sexed unless they’re tropical storm strength

[Aric Dunn]

Could this one actually go South of the Equator??? be a system South America needs to watch. I know there hasn't been many (if any) have hit South America outside the Caribbean. I could see this becoming TD in the next 24 hours if it can keep together as it gets further away from Africa

Well, the steering flow as you approach the equator ( assuming the TC formed north of 4 Degrees then moved south somehow) is away from the equator. So essentially no it cannot as a "hurricane" anyway. Some weak low level vorts may be able to.

however the laws in fluid dynamics would allow for this to happen. but just very unlikely

Interestingly enough.. I found this on another forum. Considering the direction of the circulation it formed south of the equator then moved north and back south.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A low pressure system is located about 600 miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the low is currently producing
only limited shower and thunderstorm activity, the system appears
to have become better organized since earlier today and a tropical
depression could form during the next day or two. This system is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes
of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[chaser1]

Okay, that's just wrong LOL! Like seeing that rare clockwise tornado somewhere here in the Midwest. Just too freaking weird to see a tropical system in the Atlantic basin turning clockwise. Now, imagine a very small intense vortex actually able to maintain it's clockwise rotation and being upgraded to a T.S. somewhere in the MDR???

[cycloneye]

This chaser is watching 99L.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1043285829047791616

[AnnularCane]

That little low actually crossed the equator? I didn't think they could do that.

[Emmett_Brown]

That little low actually crossed the equator? I didn't think they could do that.

Yeah, that shouldn't be allowed... we need to build a wall! (sorry...just kidding...)

[AutoPenalti]

This chaser is watching 99L.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1043285829047791616

What's wrong with high latitude invests...?

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

As of 00:00 UTC Sep 22, 2018:

Location: 7.2°N 20.7°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 35 NM

[TheStormExpert]

This chaser is watching 99L.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1043285829047791616

What's wrong with high latitude invests...?

Well he dipped out on Florence last minute once it started going through its structural changes.