CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/Wpxr789.png

That track makes it seem like the UKMET is moving this too fast...

[Yellow Evan]

Good news is this is still 4-5 days out. Plenty of time for the usual east shifts to take place.

By the time the east shifts finish up, it'll be over my roof.

Just realized I meant west shifts.

[Alyono]

why do we have 2 planes in Lane at the same time? Couldn't the AF delay by 6 hours so that we dont have a NOAA and AF out there at the same time? Would give us the 6 hourly fixes we need

[Kingarabian]

why do we have 2 planes in Lane at the same time? Couldn't the AF delay by 6 hours so that we dont have a NOAA and AF out there at the same time? Would give us the 6 hourly fixes we need

Maybe it's just this mission.

Looks like down to 100kts and pressure up to 963mb.

[Alyono]

why do we have 2 planes in Lane at the same time? Couldn't the AF delay by 6 hours so that we dont have a NOAA and AF out there at the same time? Would give us the 6 hourly fixes we need

Maybe it's just this mission.

Looks like down to 100kts and pressure up to 963mb.

somehow, it seems like all missions. Hopefully this gets fixed so we can have 6 hourly fixes

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon supports 105 or 110kt. We should see further intensification today.

[Yellow Evan]

Through 24 hours. Further north so far.

[ncapps]

euro is not budging

[Kingarabian]

euro is not budging

Its slower and more NE than yesterdays 00z run through 72 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Misses Kauai, but it has also shifted east.



The trend towards a Hawaiian Island landfall cannot be denied at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

Still offshore but notice the trend.

[Chris90]

I've only been following recon for a couple of years now, but I'm honestly more surprised they found a 113kt unflagged SFMR reading in Lane than I was last year when they recorded 160kts in Irma. The eye was barely peaking out on visible earlier and it still hasn't shown up on infrared. Really makes me wonder what the intensity was yesterday when it was at peak presentation.

Prayers for you King and all other residents of the islands. I really hope Lane passes to the south and leaves all of you alone. Fingers crossed the models stop their current trends and start shifting away again.

[Kingarabian]

I've only been following recon for a couple of years now, but I'm honestly more surprised they found a 113kt unflagged SFMR reading in Lane than I was last year when they recorded 160kts in Irma. The eye was barely peaking out on visible earlier and it still hasn't shown up on infrared. Really makes me wonder what the intensity was yesterday when it was at peak presentation.

Prayers for you King and all other residents of the islands. I really hope Lane passes to the south and leaves all of you alone. Fingers crossed the models stop their current trends and start shifting away again.

Maybe close to 130kts, who knows?

Thank you for your kind words! I just hope with more GIV data they shift away.

[Kingarabian]

Here is the 00z UKMET:

[Kingarabian]

Recon is priceless:



This is barely a T4.5 on Dvorak (90kts)

BT up to 110kts.

[Twisted-core]

GFS has beef with the Hawaiians, Usually it's the Floridians .


https://imgur.com/MRUjvjd

[storm4u]

Euro ENS definitely shifted towards a Hawaii landfall

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS rolling. Has the intensity wrong and is showing much more weakening:

[Kingarabian]

Think it misses the big island on this run.