CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[cjrciadt]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.7 6.4

Yup!!!

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro through 48 hours, slowing down;

[Mauistorms]

Could someone please direct me to a website that explains what the T#'s mean above.

Mahalo!

[Kingarabian]

it's becoming clear that my call of a safe miss is in danger now. The trough looks to be legit.

Have to hope this does not start accelerating once it turns. That is the difference between an Iniki and a Dot, if this does make a landfall

The GFS solution of a hit and then lingering over a couple of islands for a few days would be bad.

[Yellow Evan]

Could someone please direct me to a website that explains what the T#'s mean above.

Mahalo!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[Kingarabian]

Could someone please direct me to a website that explains what the T#'s mean above.

Mahalo!

Match the numbers with the assosicated speed:


FINAL and ADJ are the more accurate numbers usually.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro begins to recurve at hour 72:


This may put one of the islands in its crosshairs.

[CrazyC83]

I don't like the looks of this at all.

So the ridge is breaking down with an opening right over the islands?

[Kingarabian]

I don't like the looks of this at all.

So the ridge is breaking down with an opening right over the islands?

Yeah looks to be a rather substantial break.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro through 96 hours:



Now let's see if the ridge builds back in or it weakens to the point the low level flow takes it west.

[ncapps]

EURO is a miss for Hawaii, kick it west at 120..

FV-3 and Euro now in safe camp for Hawaii.

[Camerooski]

EURO is a miss for Hawaii, kick it west at 120..

FV-3 and Euro now in safe camp for Hawaii.

Would still bring lots of flooding, but certainly less wind.

[Kingarabian]

EURO is a miss for Hawaii, kick it west at 120..

FV-3 and Euro now in safe camp for Hawaii.

That's an interesting scenario. I wonder if it's the ridge building back in or simply because the system is too weak to feel the weakness.

[Yellow Evan]

EURO is a miss for Hawaii, kick it west at 120..

FV-3 and Euro now in safe camp for Hawaii.

That's an interesting scenario. I wonder if it's the ridge building back in or simply because the system is too weak to feel the weakness.

With regards to FV3 it's likely the latter but in regards to ECMWF seems to be the former.

[Alyono]

EURO is a miss for Hawaii, kick it west at 120..

FV-3 and Euro now in safe camp for Hawaii.

That's an interesting scenario. I wonder if it's the ridge building back in or simply because the system is too weak to feel the weakness.

What is worrying me is that the models keep delaying the shear. Was initially supposed to start Tuesday. Now its back to Thursday or Friday

[Alyono]

it's becoming clear that my call of a safe miss is in danger now. The trough looks to be legit.

Have to hope this does not start accelerating once it turns. That is the difference between an Iniki and a Dot, if this does make a landfall

The GFS solution of a hit and then lingering over a couple of islands for a few days would be bad.

the hit and linger may be better than a blast right through.

If this accelerates like Iniki, you'll get an Iniki, except maybe over Oahu. That is Maria level bad

[ncapps]

CPAC is really going to earn their money with this forecast. Not getting much help at all. Hopefully more recon data tonight tightens things up.


Also, Euro ensembles should tell alot and add some confidence, hopefully.

[CrazyC83]

it's becoming clear that my call of a safe miss is in danger now. The trough looks to be legit.

Have to hope this does not start accelerating once it turns. That is the difference between an Iniki and a Dot, if this does make a landfall

The GFS solution of a hit and then lingering over a couple of islands for a few days would be bad.

the hit and linger may be better than a blast right through.

If this accelerates like Iniki, you'll get an Iniki, except maybe over Oahu. That is Maria level bad

Being 2,000+ miles from anywhere would make for a humanitarian crisis of the likes we've never seen in modern times with a direct hit of a major hurricane on Oahu...

[Kingarabian]

EURO is a miss for Hawaii, kick it west at 120..

FV-3 and Euro now in safe camp for Hawaii.

That's an interesting scenario. I wonder if it's the ridge building back in or simply because the system is too weak to feel the weakness.

What is worrying me is that the models keep delaying the shear. Was initially supposed to start Tuesday. Now its back to Thursday or Friday

Yup. What do you think about the track and the bend back west?

The UKMET did keep a deeper vort yesterday and did not show the bend back to the west. FV3 had this picked up only by the time it weakened to a TS did it move back west.

[Alyono]

That's an interesting scenario. I wonder if it's the ridge building back in or simply because the system is too weak to feel the weakness.

What is worrying me is that the models keep delaying the shear. Was initially supposed to start Tuesday. Now its back to Thursday or Friday

Yup. What do you think about the track and the bend back west?

The UKMET did keep a deeper vort yesterday and did not show the bend back to the west. FV3 had this picked up only by the time it weakened to a TS did it move back west.

As I said, I am nervous about the models pushing back the shear timing