WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:57 am

Better to just ignore me...I'm irritating sometimes... :lol: It's me... :D
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:09 am

26/1430 UTC 23.6N 140.5E T4.5/4.5 JONGDARI -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:16 am

Image

Looking really good now. Iwo Jima right in the path...
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#64 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:19 am

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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:34 am

JTWC is conservative here. This is likely around 80 or 85 knots. Thick CDO and nice structure with hints of an eye on visible.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#66 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:44 pm

latest ec actually weakens this from its current intensity before it makes landfall

I do not believe this will be that bad for Japan, except for freshwater flooding. models always indicate a massive typhoon and we end up with a TS or a low end typhoon. Happens several times eacg year
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:55 pm

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T5.0 or 90 knots here. Need the eye to clear and we have a major.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#68 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:14 pm

Alyono wrote:latest ec actually weakens this from its current intensity before it makes landfall

I do not believe this will be that bad for Japan, except for freshwater flooding. models always indicate a massive typhoon and we end up with a TS or a low end typhoon. Happens several times eacg year

Excuse my lack of expertise, but here are my thoughts.

I guess this would could be different. So far, it is taking an unusual path to Honshu, coming from the east rather than the west. Right now, SSTs are at least 3 degrees above normal---mentioned by some pages and mets. It's about to explode with that eye. I do see some weakening coming, but in a more gradual manner.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:36 pm

WP, 15, 2018072618, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1410E, 70, 970, TY, 34, NEQ, 155, 165, 120, 90, 1000, 195, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, JONGDARI, M


JTWC as usual has no idea what it is doing. Been underestimating this its entire duration.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:37 pm

Image

Looks elongated N to S... not something I expected

Image

Core is fine though
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#71 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:12 pm

looks to be some undercutting shear affecting this. May be why EC shows net weakening from here on out. Structure not that great either
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#72 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:22 pm

Yeah this storm does not look like a cat 2 typhoon. Don't think the JTWC is underestimating it at all. Looking sheared.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#73 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:52 pm

The upcoming 00Z Chichijima sounding will be very helpful in determining the environment just outside the system.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#74 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:56 pm

Each microwave pass does appear to look better and better.

Image
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:03 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Yeah this storm does not look like a cat 2 typhoon. Don't think the JTWC is underestimating it at all. Looking sheared.


I disagree. Its inner core is well established and this is a classic T5.0 BO CDO.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:08 pm

Image

Image

Maybe a little tilted but the eye is showing hints of clearing.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#77 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:11 pm

Movement behavior actually reminds me somewhat of Typhoon Walt '94, although obviously not as strong and displaced further north.
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:34 pm

26/2030 UTC 24.2N 141.7E T5.5/5.5 JONGDARI -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#79 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:38 pm

Latest IR frame.

Image
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Re: WPAC: JONGDARI - Typhoon

#80 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:12 pm

Did a good @ holding out the lingering hot dry air thats about from a previous hadley cell that scorched JP.

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https://imgur.com/rIvciJc

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https://imgur.com/ewoqEBr
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