ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[MetroMike]

In Joe Bastardi's Saturday summary video he is hinting that Florence could move West toward the southern US.

[gatorcane]

Wow the 12Z GFS lets Florence escape but barely this time. Look at that ridge building over SE Canada, not to mention it just misses getting underneath the building Bermuda High which would send it west or WSW at 234 hours (second image):

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeah, 12z GFS makes Florence significantly stronger through 192 hours, resulting in a more northward bias. ECMWF has a weaker system with a weaker trough, followed by a ridge building in that forces Florence west towards the US.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yeah, 12z GFS makes Florence significantly stronger through 192 hours, resulting in a more northward bias. ECMWF has a weaker system with a weaker trough, followed by a ridge building in that forces Florence west towards the US.

Classic GFS vs Euro situation. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Shell Mound]

There is rather strong agreement among the 12Z GEFS ensemble members even in the long range. The trend is significantly farther W compared to 00Z:



Compare these runs to those of the most recent (00Z) EPS. There seems to be good agreement between the GEFS and EPS regarding a threat to Bermuda:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At least from what I've seen in the EPAC this season, especially with Lane, is that the ECMWF is consistently too weak and too far south.

[gatorcane]

This setup at 120 hours on the 00Z ECMWF for Florence should drive it west or WNW. We will see how the run turns out:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking like the 12z ECMWF will recurve Florence, ridge slightly weaker.

[TheStormExpert]

Nope, not so fast gatorcane!

[BobHarlem]

Looks like the Euro is back to the recurve idea.

[bamajammer4eva]

Glad to know 00z run was a fluke with 12z back to showing safe recurve east of Bermuda

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like after this mornings brief Euro scare that consensus is growing that Florence will recurve near or east of Bermuda.

GFS


Euro


CMC


FV3-GFS

[Blown Away]

Still recurve, but continues to shift SW on each run.

[TheStormExpert]

Still recurve, but continues to shift SW on each run.

What continues to shift SW? This was a big shift east from this mornings 00z run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

End of 12z ECMWF is still kind of ominous with Florence; ridge builds in over it, heading changes from NNW to NW.

Still a lot of variables on the table, and these run-to-run changes are just showing us possibilities. As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.

[BobHarlem]

End of 12z ECMWF is still kind of ominous with Florence; ridge builds in over it, heading changes from NNW to NW.

Still a lot of variables on the table, and these run-to-run changes are just showing us possibilities. As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.

It gets uncomfortably close to Bermuda in this run also.

[chaser1]

Boy, at least for the time being it's really gonna be an ebb and flow game of inches. So much dependent on how model run after run projection of the fluctuation of N.W. Atlantic mid level heights ultimately plays out. Timing really is everything as we watch model runs depicting each fairly quick moving short wave within the broader picture of a predominantly progressive zonal pattern over the Eastern CONUS. During so many past years we'd seem to have a long wave pattern that largely protected the Eastern Seaboard with each short wave trough that would drop into place there. Ah yes such were the Ninel Conde days.....

[plasticup]

As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.

It's worth considering in the "this thing is possible, not garanteed" kind of way. You can think of the many models as showing the range of possibilities. Rarely does something happen that no model predicted.

[CrazyC83]

The best analog I can think of might be Carrie 1957?

[bamajammer4eva]

12z Euro Ensemble EPS



12z GFS Ensemble GEFS