ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#81 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:08 am

SoupBone wrote:Looking at it in motion, I think that's 92L that then regenerates and heads toward Florida.


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Yep right after going over Hispaniola and Cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:43 am

06Z GFS westward just north of PR.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:58 am

Long range:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#84 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:59 am

92L rakes the greater antilles chain then up over SW FL to the SE US coast on the 06z GFS. Call it the cruise ship course? :D

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018090606&fh=198
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#85 Postby stormchazer » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:28 am

ronjon wrote:92L rakes the greater antilles chain then up over SW FL to the SE US coast on the 06z GFS. Call it the cruise ship course? :D

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018090606&fh=198


Similar to the 0Z run from 24 hours ago. Interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#86 Postby wxGuy » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:29 am

I think Mr. GFS is too bullish on recurve right now, be back in 5 days :wink:
Florence could very well impact the East Coast. Which could keep this trucking more West.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#87 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:43 am

6z "Test" FV3 GFS fishes 92L well before the Lesser Antilles. Florence sucking up the basin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#88 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:46 am

Agressive models guidance for intensity showing at least a cat 1 status during the next 72h and till cat 2 status at 120 h, even a bordeline cat 3 at 132 h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#89 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:54 am

Since it hasn't been mentioned yet, the 00z Euro fishes 92L in roughly same spot as the "test" GFS. Same vacuum cleaner Florence reason.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#90 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:14 am

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#91 Postby AubreyStorm » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:34 am

:eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#92 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:39 am

:uarrow: Not looking good at all! The last thing those NE Caribbean Islands need is a tropical cyclone. Even the weakest of tropical cyclones could do some damage after what Irma and Maria did last year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#93 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:46 am

I hope he is right on this one.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037697891387801605




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037697892499316738


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#94 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:48 am

The Euro still wants to send it out to sea. And the Euro performed great with Gordon...so I wouldn't discount it yet.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#95 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:31 am

The models seem enthusiastic about this one. A hurricane seems likely, and I think a major is possible as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#96 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:26 am

At 168 (12Z GFS), it looks to be coming right on top of the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#97 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:29 am



He probably has forgot than I will ever know about stuff like this and I hope he is right but I respectfully disagree with his assessment. The Caribbean wasn't favorable last year either (only a couple of weak systems) and we still got Irma, Jose, Maria. I guess Maria might count as Caribbean but extreme outskirts of. He also proclaimed peak season would be dead last year. I'm not trying to knock him just saying I wouldn't be proclaming something like that quite yet. Nobody thought Florence would be a Cat 4 where it was. Just saying no one should let their guard down because of that post.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#98 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:53 am

Caribbean cruiser.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#99 Postby canes92 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:06 pm

Looks like it tries to jump north at the end towards Cuba and Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#100 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:08 pm

canes92 wrote:Looks like it tries to jump north at the end towards Cuba and Florida.


Plows through the Yucatan and into the BoC

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