SPAC: FEHI - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

92P INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 26, 2018:

Location: 13.9°S 154.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 26 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 29 January 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

None.

Potential Cyclones:

A low pressure system is currently located to the south of the Solomon Sea. Due
to the increasing monsoon across the northern Coral Sea, the low is forecast to
intensify over the next few days.
There is a moderate chance of the low developing into a tropical cyclone, well
offshore the Queensland east coast, late Saturday and into Sunday as the monsoon
strengthens. During Monday, the system is expected to interact with increasing
shear and shift rapidly southeast to be near or out of the Eastern Region,
therefore the likelihood will decrease to low.
If a tropical cyclone did form, it would move east to southeast, away from the
Australian east coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Low

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Why the change in number? 93P INVEST 180126 1800 11.9S 156.8E SHEM 30 995

Its the same invest.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVICE NUMBER THREE
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVICE NUMBER THREE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVICE NUMBER THREE ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 07:00 AM THIS MORNING ON THE 27TH JANUARY 2018.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR ALL PROVINCES.

AT 06:00AM THIS MORNING, A TROPICAL LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0 DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTH AND 156.7 DEGREES LONGITUDE EAST. THIS IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF RENNELL & BELLONA ISLAND. THE LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST SOUTH EAST AT 06 KNOTS AND IS INTENSIFYING.

GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF RENNELL & BELLONA INCLUDING SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL, GUADALCANAL AND MAKIRA PROVINCES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELLS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING.


EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 33 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER THE REMAINING PROVINCES WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AS BAD WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW POSES THREATS TO LIVES AND PROPERTIES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO ALL RADIO OUTLETS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

THE NEXT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 1:30PM THIS AFTERNOON.
http://www.met.gov.sb/tropical-cyclone- ... isturbance
DATE: 27TH JANUARY 2018

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Origin Weather-France New Caledonia.
General situation on Saturday, January 27, 2018 at 00:00 UTC and evolution.

Tropical depression low SH92.
Position: 12.0 S 157.9 E.
Displacement: East 8 kt.
Center pressure: 996 hPa.
Maximum wind near the center: 30 kt, gusts 40 kt.
Planned positions: 13.0 S 159.0 E, 27 to 12 UTC; 14.7 S 159.7 E, 28 to 00 UTC; 16.9 S 160.5 E, 28 to 12 UTC.
Evolution: On the west of the North zone, tropical depression low SH92 widening, expected to become a moderate tropical depression at the end of the next night with low winds strengthening 35 kt, strong gusts around the center.
A 1023 hPa high, hovering over western New Zealand, leads a fairly strong tradewind over the rest of the area.

[cycloneye]

@NASAHurricane
SW Pacific - System 93P Now has a High Chance to Develop
Satellite data shows that System 93P has been consolidating



 https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/957313585452957696

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 156.4E TO 18.8S 160.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 159.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY
520NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271719Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
DEEP BUT RAGGED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
93P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST, WHICH
IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM AND DISPLACING THE LARGE SWATH OF 30 KNOT
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) COMBINED WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION, AND A TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM AS SOON AS THE VWS ABATES SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS THE
WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 280025 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE {[994HPA]} WAS RE-ANALYSED NEAR
16.0S 160.0E AT 272300UTC MOVING SOUTH - SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 VIS IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT PASS.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP
CONVERCTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF
AN UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

*********************************************************************
****
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA.

SOUTH PACIFIC Basin (east of longitude 160E)
MSW Averaging Period: 10 minutes

Tropical Disturbance - distinct area of disturbed weather but
usually with no well-defined low-level circulation apparent/
regular advisories not issued/ usually corresponds to Dvorak
ratings less than T2.0
Tropical Depression - fairly well-defined low-level circulation/
MSW less than 34 kts/ Dvorak rating usually T2.0 or weak T2.5
Tropical Cyclone - MSW exceeding 33 kts/ Dvorak rating of
strong T2.5/T3.0 to T4.0
Severe Tropical Cyclone - MSW exceeding 63 kts/ Dvorak T4.5 or
higher

The TCWC at Nadi, Fiji, is the RSMC for the South Pacific basin
but the meteorological service of New Zealand (Wellington) issues
warnings for systems that move (or very rarely form) south of latitude
25S. The Fiji TCWC employs a 1-minute to 10-minute MSW conversion
factor of 0.90 when adjusting the Dvorak scale.

A tropical system can have associated gales and still be classified
as a tropical depression if the gales are well-removed from the center.
In such cases the gales are usually found in only one or two quadrants.
Prior to 2000, the WMO Region V definition of a tropical cyclone required
that gales surround the center, but the definition was changed to allow
classification as a tropical cyclone if gales were present near the
center and likely to persist, even if in only one quadrant.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning at 50 kts.

[1900hurricane]

Ick.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

08P FEHI 180129 0000 19.5S 162.4E SHEM 50kts 982



like to see a ascst that supported this trash.