SWIO: CEBILE - Post-Tropical

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Digital-TC-Chaser

SWIO: CEBILE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:54 am

91S INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 26, 2018:

Location: 10.2°S 82.1°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

Image
looking exposed. Some modelling cranks this storm up.
Image
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SWIO 91S INVEST

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:00 am

WTXS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 81.5E TO 12.5S 86.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 82.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
252250Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 91S
IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH (25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT VALUES
DROP OFF RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH, WHERE THE SYSTEM IS HEADING.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STRONG AND BEGINNING TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT 91S REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
TRAVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF NOT, DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATER TAUS AFTER 91S ROUNDS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270130Z.//
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Re: SWIO 91S INVEST

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:27 am

Models are predicting a powerful cyclone from this. Good thing it's not a threat to land.

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Re: SWIO 91S INVEST

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:00 am

Numbered 07S by JTWC.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SWIO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:32 am

WTIO20 FMEE 270616
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 85.2 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT REACHING 30KT WITHIN THE MONSOON FLOW.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
12.5 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
13.5 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :darrow:
http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtio30.fmee..txt






07S SEVEN 180127 0600 11.0S 84.6E SHEM 35 996
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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 5

#6 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:45 am

La Reunion Island (official RSMC of the basin) still says it's a TD. However, it's clearly a tropical storm now. They're a bit behind the power curve. I'm not sure of their requirements for an upgrade. Some agencies require TS winds in 3 or 4 quadrants before upgrading.
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:06 pm

JTWC has at 21:00 UTC warning Tropical Cyclone CEBILE up to 45 kts and peaks at 95 kts.

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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:01 pm

WTIO20 FMEE 271803
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
13.1 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
14.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=



WTIO30 FMEE 271826 RRB
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS A STRONG BOOST IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LIGHTLY SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS WEAKENING
AND PROGRESSIVELY BECOMES IN A CDO CONFIGURATION DURING LATEST
MOMENTS. THIS SITUATED THEN THE CENTER IN IMMEDIATE EDGE OF THE MOST
DEEP CONVECTION. THE 1527UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOW TO VALIDATE WINDS
REACHING UP 35KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY,
SYSTEM 05 HAS NAMED CEBILE BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
AT 1700UTC.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH AND IS PLACED UNDER A SHEAR ABOUT 15KT,
ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS DATA, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE
REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE
MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY
MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.
ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS
ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE
TRUE DURING THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE
STOPPING OF THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.=
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby Chris90 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:10 pm

Based on microwave imagery this is forming an eyewall that has wrapped pretty far around as of about 3 hours ago. I'd guess this is close 65-70kts now (using NHC standards). I know it's different for the agencies in this basin, but I think they might be underestimating the storm.
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

#10 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:18 pm

The JTWC wording Topical Cyclone translates to = hurricane in this basin confusing
mauritians people.
JTWC uses only the generic term Tropical Cyclone to refer to systems of all intensities in warning status.

JTWC is not part of the WMO. It has no 'mandate' and 'regional responsibility'. It answers only to the US Navy and US taxpayer.


6. SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN Basin (West of 90E)
MSW Averaging Period: 10 minutes

Zone of Disturbed Weather - term used to describe weak, ill-defined
systems with winds generally less than 25 kts and corresponding
to Dvorak ratings of less than T2.0
Tropical Disturbance - MSW usually 25 kts near center/ Dvorak
rating usually T2.0 (Beaufort Force 6) / such systems usually
classified as tropical depressions by most TCWCs
Tropical Depression - MSW in range of 28-33 kts (Beaufort Force 7 -
Dvorak T2.5)
Moderate Tropical Storm - MSW in range of 34-47 kts/ Dvorak rating
of T3.0 - weak T3.5
Severe Tropical Storm - MSW in range of 48-63 kts/ Dvorak rating
of strong T3.5 - T4.0
Tropical Cyclone - MSW in range of 64-89 kts/ Dvorak rating of
T4.5 - T5.5
Intense Tropical Cyclone - MSW in range of 90-115 kts/ Dvorak
rating T6.0 - T6.5
Very Intense Tropical Cyclone - MSW exceeding 115 kts/ Dvorak
rating T7.0 - T8.0

The WMO's RSMC for the South Indian region is Meteo France on the
French island of La Reunion; however, names are actually assigned by the
Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres on Mauritius (east of 55E)
and Madagascar (west of 55E).
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

#11 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:12 pm

Upgraded.

WTIO30 FMEE 280016 RRA 2018028 0043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CECILE)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/28 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+
wxtlist.k: done
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:46 am

upgrade
WTIO20 FMEE 280614
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:36 am

Image

07S CEBILE 180128 0600 13.3S 84.0E SHEM 65 974
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:25 pm

CEBILE poised to a very strong cyclone.90 kts at JTWC 15:00 UTC warning.

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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:35 pm

Clearly the strongest SHEM system of the season so far.

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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:38 pm

Not a bad estimate probably.

07S CEBILE 180128 1800 14.3S 82.7E SHEM 115 945
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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:02 pm

JTWC up to 115 kts.

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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:07 pm

JTWC warning at 03:00 UTC down to 110 kts.

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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:19 pm

Looks like it's about to try a likely long and sloppy eyewall replacement cycle.

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Re: SWIO: CEBILE - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:13 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Models are predicting a powerful cyclone from this. Good thing it's not a threat to land.

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As far as the timing of the RI is concerned, HWRF clearly performed better compared to the global models.
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