SPAC: GITA - Tropical Cyclone (09P)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

pineye

[1900hurricane]

GIta might honestly have concentric eyewalls right now.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/962459349129027585

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/962459349129027585

Thanks for the link This system may have a good chance @ eventually reaching cat5 on the 10min basin scale.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WWFJ40 NFFN 110000

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
GITA
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:55pm on Sunday the 11th of February 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT


A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW N FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND
FULAGA.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 954HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 168 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 1090 KILOMETRES
EAST OF ONO I LAU AND ABOUT 1140 KILOMETRES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
LAKEBA AT MIDDAY TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UPTO 150KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 205KM/HR.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAU,
ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 710
KILOMETRES EAST OF ONO I LAU AT MIDDAY TOMORROW AND ABOUT 220
KILOMETRES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONO I LAU AT MIDDAY ON TUESDAY.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR ONO I LAU, VATOA AND FULAGA
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS, EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90
KM/HR ON TUESDAY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO RAIN AND BECOME HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY. MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ON
TUESAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS LIKELY. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE SOUTH EAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
STRONG WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 75KM/HR LATER ON
TUESDAY.
FINE APART FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWERS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO RAIN AND BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY. MODERATE SEAS
BECOMING ROUGH LATER ON TUESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT
240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA
WILL BE ISSUED AT 0800PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

WTPS51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09P SWP 180211014939
2018021100 09P GITA 009 01 175 12 SATL 030
T000 205S 1683W 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 145 SE QD 090 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 216S 1697W 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 220S 1722W 095 R064 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 219S 1748W 100 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 235 SE QD 205 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 218S 1774W 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 223S 1786E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 220 SE QD 195 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 238S 1751E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 155 NW QD
T120 257S 1715E 095 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 168.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 168.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.6S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.0S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.9S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.3S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.8S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.7S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 168.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
0918020812 148S1788W 25
0918020818 145S1769W 25
0918020900 142S1759W 40
0918020906 143S1745W 40
0918020912 145S1730W 45
0918020918 153S1714W 45
0918021000 161S1700W 50
0918021000 161S1700W 50
0918021006 170S1690W 50
0918021012 182S1685W 55
0918021012 182S1685W 55
0918021018 193S1684W 75
0918021018 193S1684W 75
0918021018 193S1684W 75
0918021100 205S1683W 85
0918021100 205S1683W 85
0918021100 205S1683W 85

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.cyclonedashboard.com.au/fiji.php

Good info one stop shop

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GIta might honestly have concentric eyewalls right now.

It does look so this micro.Your on fire today.

[euro6208]

It would be a devastating hit for Tonga if the forecast pans out.



WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 168.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 168.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.4S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.4S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.8S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.4S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.1S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DIMPLE FEATURE, PRECURSOR TO A FORMATIVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE AND A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 110250Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 110251Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND A 110000Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 88 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE
GRADUAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER VWS IN THE AREA. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO
THE NORTH EAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH IS BUILDING,
AND HAS ALREADY CAUSED 09P TO TURN WESTWARD. TC 09P WILL TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 90, AS THE STR ERODES TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE STARTING A
WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES AND TC 09P BEGINS TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER SSTS IN LATER TAUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Its already did a lot of damage to a few islands so far.

[Highteeld]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like Gita has become sufficiently detached from the very potent monsoon trough that spawned the system. This means Gita no longer has to deal with competing convergence, among other things. On cue, the satellite presentation has become much more symmetrical. There haven't been any good microwave passes recently, but I imagine the core has been improving too. Sat fix bulletins from all agencies have been running between T5.0-5.5, but they could markedly rise if an eye begins to clear out.

[Highteeld]

Looks like Gita has become sufficiently detached from the very potent monsoon trough that spawned the system. This means Gita no longer has to deal with competing convergence, among other things. On cue, the satellite presentation has become much more symmetrical. There haven't been any good microwave passes recently, but I imagine the core has been improving too. Sat fix bulletins from all agencies have been running between T5.0-5.5, but they could markedly rise if an eye begins to clear out.

It looks like it wants to clear out

[1900hurricane]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like Gita has become sufficiently detached from the very potent monsoon trough that spawned the system. This means Gita no longer has to deal with competing convergence, among other things. On cue, the satellite presentation has become much more symmetrical. There haven't been any good microwave passes recently, but I imagine the core has been improving too. Sat fix bulletins from all agencies have been running between T5.0-5.5, but they could markedly rise if an eye begins to clear out.

It looks like it wants to clear out

It's trying for sure, but some of the recent microwave data indicates that the south eyewall may need some work, and this may be preventing it from clearing out for now at least.

[Highteeld]

TPPS10 PGTW 111854

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA)

B. 11/1800Z

C. 21.46S

D. 171.27W

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A
5.5 WHILE PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DREW

[Alyono]

looking like it will be really bad for Tonga

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 95 kts.