SPAC: GITA - Tropical Cyclone (09P)

[1900hurricane]

97P is the western of two invests embedded within a very broad monsoon gyre circulation encompassing much of the SPac to the west of the International Date Line. Flow from this gyre and interaction with 98P to the east will likely keep this invest moving eastwards from its current position near Vanuatu towards Fiji and the International Date Line for the next few days before slowing down and a possible poleward turn as steering currents weaken. Equatorial westerly wind anomalies currently rule this portion of the SPac, which could aid in developing the invest into a tropical cyclone sometime in the next several days. 97P and 98P may end up fighting for dominance as the two grow closer together. American guidance currently is the biggest proponent for 97P's development.

97P INVEST 180204 0000 13.0S 166.6E SHEM 15 1002

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not much to look @ on sat-pic atm.


15:40 EDT


realtime earth-weather surface wind map has nice rotation on this organising low.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

00z

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 052335 UTC.


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.5S
AND 167.8E AT 052100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
8 IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR ORGANISATION.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The TCWC at Nadi, Fiji, is the RSMC for the South Pacific basin.

]SOUTH PACIFIC Basin (east of longitude 160E)
MSW Averaging Period: 10 minutes


Tropical Depression - fairly well-defined low-level circulation/
MSW less than 34 kts/ Dvorak rating usually T2.0 or weak T2.5
Tropical Cyclone - MSW exceeding 33 kts/ Dvorak rating of

Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 8:48am on Friday the 9th of February 2018

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
WATERS, VANUA LEVU AND LAU WATERS, KORO SEA, VATU-I-RA AND KADAVU
PASSAGES.

Situation:
Tropical depression 07F lies to the northeast of Vanua Levu and is
moving east-northeastwards away from Fiji. Meanwhile, Tropical
depression 08F lies near 20.8S 179.6E or about 245km south-southeast
of Kadavu at 6am this morning. TD08F is expected to gradually move
northwest towards the group and affect parts of the country till
tomorrow night.

Forecast to 6am tomorrow for Fiji waters:
For Yasawa and Mamanuca waters, Vanua Levu waters, Lau Waters, Koro
Sea, Vatu-I-Ra and Kadavu passages:

Southwest to northerly winds 20 to 25 knots gusting to 35 knots.
Rough to very rough seas.
Moderate northerly swells.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Further outlook: West to southwest winds 20 to 30 knots gusting to
35 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate northwesterly swells.

For the rest of Fiji Waters:
Southwest to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Winds gusty at times.
Moderate to rough seas.
Moderate northerly swells.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Further outlook: Southwest to easterly winds 15 to 20 knots, gusty
at times. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate northerly swells.

[1900hurricane]

Weird to see JTWC classify a TD in the SHem (they typically only write advisories on tropical storms and up).

09P NINE 180208 1800 14.9S 178.1W SHEM 25 997

[1900hurricane]

...Although if ASCAT is to be believed, they could go straight to a Tropical Storm. Both recent passes had winds of 40-50 kt on the north side of the circulation. I'm not sure what Nadi's policy on classifying tropical storms is (they might require TS winds in multiple/all quadrants like BoM), but the next name on their list is "Gita."





*EDIT: JTWC bumped to 40 kt.

09P NINE 180209 0000 13.8S 175.5W SHEM 40 993

[1900hurricane]

Looks like junk still though. All the convection is focused on the north side, where the strongest winds and best convergence is.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Good divergence aloft north for this storm to vent.



surrounded by shear.



12z has bits and pieces springing along the trough.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090756 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 174.8W AT
090600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TC GITA MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AND OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.60 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, PT AND MET AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 14.9S 172.3W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 16.5S 170.5W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.3S 169.8W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.6S 170.3W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400UTC.

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.2S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.7S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 174.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM WEST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALONG WITH A
BULLSEYE 082124Z METOP-A ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE CORRESPONDING METOP-
A ASCAT WIND BARBS IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE MUCH WEAKER
(PREDOMINANTLY 10 TO 20 KTS). THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO
THE NORTH OF TC 09P IS CAUSING THIS ASYMMETRY IN THE LLC AND AIDING
IN SPIN UP. AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS) AND ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND ACTUAL
INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09P IS IN A FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
LOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO STRONG DIFFLUENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OBSERVED OVER THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) AS WELL. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND THEN DEFLECT TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
48, TC 09P WILL CONTINUE ITS RECURVE TO THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY 30 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY UNTIL TAU 24 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. AFTER
TAU 48, GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS 09P TRACKS BACK
UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. DUE TO THE OBVIOUS
STEERING FEATURES, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC run is ramping GITA up when it re curves back to the west.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 980HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 171.8W AT
091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 190 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING 3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST WARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 16.5S 169.5W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.9S 168.7W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.4S 169.8W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 20.9S 172.0W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON GITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
100200UTC.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks close to attaching to the large piece of monsoon trough to the north.

https://www.weather.gov/ppg/cyclone

[1900hurricane]

Hints of a banding eye on vis.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 100207 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 169.5W AT
100000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 050 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 030 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 045 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP WITH WHITE BANDS YIELDS DT=4.0,
MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING 4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST WARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATIONFORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.0S 168.0W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 20.0S 168.2W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 21.1S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 21.3S 171.9W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON GITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
100800UTC.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

What goes with a aor mandate. Public safety with clear messages and plans in place.
Fiji National Disaster Management Office
@FijiNDMO
Official handle for the National Disaster Management Office | Government of the Republic of Fiji
https://twitter.com/FijiNDMO

RSMC NADI

FKPS01 NFFN 100657
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180210/0600Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: GITA
NR: 06
PSN: S1706 W16830
MOV: SE 16KT
C: 968HPA
MAX WIND: 70KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 10/1200 S1812 W16742
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 10/1800 S1906 W16748
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 11/0000 S2006 W16754
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 11/0600 S2042 W16836
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180210/1300Z

JTWC Best track
09P GITA 180210 0600 17.0S 169.0W SHEM 50 980

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR GITA (09P) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 02100126
SATCON: MSLP = 978 hPa MSW = 56 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 54.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 61 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 180 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 979 hPa 49 knots Scene: CDO Date: FEB100152
CIMSS AMSU: 982 hPa 60 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 02090910
ATMS: 980.7 hPa 50.0 knots Date: 02100126
SSMIS: 977.5 hPa 57.4 knots Date: 02100126
CIRA ATMS: 975 hPa 66 knots Date: 02100037

[cycloneye]

@meteologix
TC #Gita is fending off some dry air to its S currently, as seen on HD satellite imagery https://meteologix.com/ph/satellite/170 ... .html#play … it is expected to develop into a strong cyclone by early this coming week https://meteologix.com/ph/model-charts/ ... 1500z.html … long term, EPS tracks point to ptnl NZ threat



 https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/962333742672044032

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 55 kts.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FKPS01 NFFN 101925
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180210/1800Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: GITA
NR: 08
PSN: S1912 W16830
MOV: S 08KT
C: 954HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 11/0000 S2012 W16842
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 11/0600 S2042 W16924
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 11/1200 S2118 W17018
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 11/1800 S2130 W17124
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180211/0100Z