SPAC: Tropical Depression 08F (Invest 98P)

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SPAC: Tropical Depression 08F (Invest 98P)

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:51 pm

98P is the eastern of two invests embedded within a very broad monsoon gyre circulation encompassing much of the SPac to the west of the International Date Line. Flow from this gyre and interaction with 97P to the west will likely keep this invest very slow moving for the next few days, only slowly drifting away from its current position near Fiji. Equatorial westerly wind anomalies currently rule this portion of the SPac, which could aid in developing the invest into a tropical cyclone sometime in the next several days. 97P and 98P may end up fighting for dominance as the two grow closer together. European guidance currently is the biggest proponent for 98P's development.

98P INVEST 180204 0000 17.7S 179.5E SHEM 15 1002


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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC:TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F / Invest 98P

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:44 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 052335 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.8S
AND 178.8W AT 052100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
8 IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt
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