WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#81 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:29 pm

mainid_input=0
--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI (DvT)/BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd Sat VZA Comments
2018FEB10 193000 2.0 1009.0 +0.0 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -8.96 -45.68 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.65 -138.47 FCST HIM-8 8.2
2018FEB10 201000 2.1 1008.2 +0.0 31.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.94 -40.41 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.72 -138.27 FCST HIM-8 8.4
2018FEB10 204000 2.1 1008.2 +0.0 31.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.69 -37.87 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.76 -138.13 FCST HIM-8 8.5
2018FEB10 211000 2.1 1008.2 +0.0 31.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.27 -33.45 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.81 -138.00 FCST HIM-8 8.6
2018FEB10 214000 2.1 1008.2 +0.0 31.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 7.15 -37.04 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.86 -137.87 FCST HIM-8 8.7
2018FEB10 220000 2.1 1008.2 +0.0 31.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 10.87 -36.17 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.89 -137.79 FCST HIM-8 8.7
2018FEB10 224000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -12.53 -36.65 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.94 -137.64 FCST HIM-8 8.9
2018FEB10 230000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -15.92 -37.26 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.97 -137.57 FCST HIM-8 8.9
2018FEB10 234000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -11.97 -36.73 CRVBND N/A N/A 7.02 -137.42 FCST HIM-8 9.1
2018FEB11 001000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.2T/hour ON OFF 7.83 -35.24 CRVBND N/A N/A 7.06 -137.31 FCST HIM-8 9.2
2018FEB11 003000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.2T/hour ON OFF 5.58 -34.98 CRVBND N/A N/A 7.09 -137.25 FCST HIM-8 9.2
2018FEB11 011000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 3.37 -30.13 CRVBND N/A N/A 7.13 -137.11 FCST HIM-8 9.3
2018FEB11 014000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 0.2T/hour ON OFF -48.87 -49.21 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.77 -136.42 FCST HIM-8 9.4
2018FEB11 021000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF -41.91 -49.45 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.82 -136.27 FCST HIM-8 9.5
2018FEB11 023000 2.2 1007.4 +0.0 32.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -37.46 -49.16 CRVBND N/A N/A 6.86 -136.17 FCST HIM-8 9.6
2018FEB11 031000 2.3 1006.6 +0.0 33.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -51.52 -48.15 IRRCDO N/A N/A 6.91 -135.99 FCST HIM-8 9.8
2018FEB11 034000 2.4 1005.8 +0.0 34.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -56.03 -48.23 IRRCDO N/A N/A 6.94 -135.86 FCST HIM-8 9.9
Utilizing history file /data2/misc/adt/scripts-RSMC/history/30Y_02.ODT
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#82 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:31 pm

JTWC has done some needed revision work.

02W TWO 180211 0000 6.6N 137.5E WPAC 35 997
02W TWO 180210 1800 6.6N 138.7E WPAC 35 996
02W TWO 180210 1200 6.7N 139.7E WPAC 30 1004
02W TWO 180210 0600 7.8N 141.8E WPAC 25 1005
02W TWO 180210 0000 8.8N 143.4E WPAC 25 1006
02W TWO 180209 1800 9.4N 144.3E WPAC 25 1005
02W TWO 180209 1200 10.1N 144.9E WPAC 30 1004
02W TWO 180209 0600 10.5N 146.0E WPAC 30 1004
02W TWO 180209 0000 10.7N 146.9E WPAC 25 1004
02W TWO 180208 1800 10.3N 147.8E WPAC 20 1006
02W TWO 180208 1200 9.6N 148.7E WPAC 20 1005
02W TWO 180208 0600 8.8N 149.7E WPAC 20 1006
02W TWO 180208 0000 8.0N 150.1E WPAC 20 1008
02W TWO 180207 1800 7.5N 151.1E WPAC 20 1009
02W TWO 180207 1200 7.4N 151.9E WPAC 20 1004
02W TWO 180207 0600 7.4N 153.1E WPAC 20 1009
02W TWO 180207 0000 7.3N 154.2E WPAC 20 1009
02W TWO 180206 1800 7.1N 155.1E WPAC 20 1009
02W TWO 180206 1200 6.9N 156.1E WPAC 20 1008
02W TWO 180206 0600 6.8N 157.0E WPAC 15 1007
02W TWO 180206 0000 6.7N 157.9E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#83 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:06 am

Still a TS.

02W TWO 180211 0000 6.6N 137.5E WPAC 35 997
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#84 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:07 am

JMA has a different center (?)

Close
TD
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 11 February 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 11 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°55' (6.9°)
E136°20' (136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 11 February>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N7°40' (7.7°)
E133°25' (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 12 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°30' (8.5°)
E130°05' (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#85 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:22 am

Well it is the off-season in this basin right now and perhaps agencies like JTWC are also not in their prime during these months. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#86 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:30 am

dexterlabio wrote:Well it is the off-season in this basin right now and perhaps agencies like JTWC are also not in their prime during these months. :lol:


Yup. It was a drill. :lol: :wink:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#87 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:34 am

WDPN31 PGTW 110300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 10A AMENDED AND RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A RAGGED LLC HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS IT TRAILED AN EXTENSIVE BUT DISORGANIZED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 110057Z
ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND CORROBORATED BY A CORRECTED PGTW 110000Z
DVORAK FIX. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS; HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SSTS. TS 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A WEAKER
CYCLONE, OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.

B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STR TOWARD SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 36. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MINDANAO. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN IT DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. BY TAU
72, TS 02W WILL EXIT INTO THE SULU SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 02W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR RECEDES, AND CROSS PALAWAN NEAR PUERTO PRINCESA INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE SCS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD SURGE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A 30-
KNOT TD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT PRIOR TO
INITIAL LANDFALL LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTERWARD, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TS 02W
BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MSI ANIMATION.
5. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED INITIAL AND FORECAST
INTENSITIES TO REFLECT A WEAKER CYCLONE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#88 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:16 am

Image
Storm gets a lift on GFS. Also on the plot nice lake effect snow going on in the sea of JP.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#89 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:24 am

Very heavy convective cluster which is producing numerous lightning strikes just east of Palau.

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#90 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:27 am

TS 1802 (Sanba)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 11 February 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 11 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°00' (7.0°)
E135°50' (135.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 280 km (150 NM)
S 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°40' (7.7°)
E133°00' (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 12 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°25' (8.4°)
E129°55' (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°05' (9.1°)
E124°30' (124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°20' (9.3°)
E120°25' (120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression "a" (JTWC TS 02W)

#91 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:18 am

Ensembles are now calling for a Siargao-Dinagat-Surigao Del Norte landfall. A lot are trending toward Leyte and Central Visayas, including the ECMWF. They were calling for a track similar to Tembin in late December.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:14 am

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 111044
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SANBA (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
844 PM CHST SUN FEB 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM 02W WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES PALAU...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL
IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANBA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.2
DEGREES EAST.

ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP
180 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU
75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL PALAU
55 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU

TROPICAL STORM SANBA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SANBA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SANBA NEAR KOROR LATE
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM SANBA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN GENERAL...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPARATIONS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BY NOW. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. SERVICES COULD BE DISRUPTED FOR A FEW DAYS ON IMPACTED
ISLANDS. HEED DIRECTIONS GIVEN BY EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS BY DAWN.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 6 TO 8 FT ON NORTH FACING REEFS AND 8 TO 11 FT ON EAST
FACING REEFS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 13 FT
ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE WITH
INUNDATION UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. FLASH FLOODING IN
HILLY AREAS OF BABELDAOB IS POSSIBLE.

$$

M. AYDLETT/W. AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:46 am

HWRF intensifies this all the way to the P.I and even OVER the country due to an abundance of water available.

Peak.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#94 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:28 am

The most recent ASCAT pass had Sanba crossing Palau with winds of 35-40 kt.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:17 am

New CDO could form with that deep convection

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:27 pm

All Tropical Storm Warnings Cancelled for TS Sanba
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#97 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:46 pm

JTWC 21:00 UTC warning.

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SANBA)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 67 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANGAUR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SOME AND
THE FLARING IS STARTING TO REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED LOOP AND AN 111741Z 37GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL NOTCH FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TS 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES, MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 30. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 45 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTY AND
A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTO THE SULU SEA. MARGINAL CONDITION OVER THE SULU SEA
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS SANBA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE
STR RECEDES AND THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EXTENSION. MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE RESULT OF
A COLD SURGE, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS
BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY
IN BOTH TRACK DIRECTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED, SPECIFICALLY IN THE
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72 LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:09 pm

Image



Image
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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:01 pm

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No gales ... a few 30 kts
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#100 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:34 pm

Looking bad tonight. Probably mid level dry air cutting off convergence?
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