SIO: KELVIN - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:45 am

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 16/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.7S
Longitude: 121.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/1200: 18.0S 121.0E: 035 [070]: 030 [055]: 1001
+12: 16/1800: 18.3S 120.6E: 050 [090]: 040 [075]: 993
+18: 17/0000: 18.4S 120.4E: 060 [115]: 045 [085]: 989
+24: 17/0600: 18.6S 120.4E: 075 [135]: 050 [095]: 985
+36: 17/1800: 18.7S 120.9E: 095 [175]: 060 [110]: 977
+48: 18/0600: 19.2S 121.3E: 115 [210]: 070 [130]: 969
+60: 18/1800: 20.0S 121.7E: 130 [245]: 045 [085]: 989
+72: 19/0600: 21.1S 121.5E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 996
+96: 20/0600: 23.7S 121.5E: 195 [365]: 035 [065]: 995
+120: 21/0600: 27.6S 122.1E: 285 [525]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 17U is slowly intensifying while moving over open waters away from
the Dampier Peninsula. It was located using Broome radar, animated satellite
imagery and surface observations.

Conditions for development are very favourable over open waters west of the
Kimberley. SSTs are in the range 27-29C. Wind shear is around 20 knots [CIMSS
analysis at 0000 UTC] and there is evidence of poleward upper outflow.

Favourable environmental conditions are expected to continue for the couple of
days. Hence the system is expected to steadily intensify and a period of rapid
intensification could occur.

W/SW motion will continue during Friday and early Saturday due to a mid level
ridge encircling the southern side of the system. Models indicate that during
Saturday an approaching upper trough will erode the ridge to the southwest of
the system centre, encouraging a southeast or southerly motion. On this track
the system could reach a Severe Tropical Cyclone [Category 3] intensity before
making landfall, but if the system takes a more eastward track earlier then the
system will most likely be weaker.

The track uncertainty during this period leads to uncertainty in the coastal
crossing time, but a crossing near 80 Mile Beach some time late Sunday is
forecast. Favourable conditions for development make a Severe coastal crossing
possible.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:17 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1310 UTC 16/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.2S
Longitude: 121.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/1800: 18.5S 120.9E: 030 [060]: 040 [075]: 991
+12: 17/0000: 18.6S 120.6E: 045 [080]: 050 [095]: 984
+18: 17/0600: 18.8S 120.5E: 055 [105]: 055 [100]: 980
+24: 17/1200: 18.8S 120.6E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 979
+36: 18/0000: 18.9S 121.1E: 090 [165]: 070 [130]: 968
+48: 18/1200: 19.5S 121.5E: 110 [200]: 065 [120]: 972
+60: 19/0000: 20.5S 121.6E: 130 [235]: 040 [075]: 992
+72: 19/1200: 21.7S 121.6E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 995
+96: 20/1200: 24.6S 121.5E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 997
+120: 21/1200: 28.7S 122.9E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
17U was located using Broome radar, animated VIS/IR imagery and surface
observations, however the distance of the low from the Broome radar means
confidence in the location is decreasing. Dvorak analysis during the early part
of Friday was difficult but a more pronounced convective band dveloped through
the late afternoon after the low had spent some time over water. A curved band
pattern was applied giving a DT of 2.0 to 2.5. A time averaged DT of 2.5 was
reached at 1200 UTC. ADT's are in good agreement and intensity is set at 30
knots.

Conditions for development are very favourable over open water, SSTs are in the
range 27-29C, wind shear is low, there is evidence of good outflow aloft and
upper divergence over the low. If the low becomes slow moving as models suggest
and has 30 to 48 hours or more over water it is possible the cyclone may reach
an intensity of around 70 knots [[10-minute mean wind] before impacting the
Western Australian coast.

17U is being steered in a west southwest direction by the mid-level ridge.
Models indicate that overnight Friday an approaching upper trough will erode the
ridge to the southwest of the system centre. The steering pattern is quite
finely balanced during this period and this is reflected in model scenarios that
show the system becoming slow moving and doing a loop off the coast. Later on
Saturday model steering indicates that the system becomes captured by a more
north-westerly pattern and a southerly or southeasterly motion becomes apparent.
With this steering it is likely that the system will cross the east Pilbara or
West Kimberley coast later on Sunday.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 10S)

#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:01 pm

The center is largely exposed on visible imagery.

Image
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 10S)

#24 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:42 pm

Yeah clearly sheared. likely generous ADT @47kts. Ascat pass is needed here.

Image


2018FEB16 203000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.1 3.1 3.5 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -73.26 -69.93 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 -18.62 -121.22 FCST HIM-8 31.1
2018FEB16 210000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -71.40 -67.93 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 -18.63 -121.21 FCST HIM-8 31.1
2018FEB16 213000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -63.69 -65.31 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 -18.64 -121.20 FCST HIM-8 31.2
2018FEB16 220000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -55.28 -62.12 CRVBND N/A -2.0 -18.65 -121.18 FCST HIM-8 31.2
2018FEB16 224000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -35.33 -57.81 CRVBND N/A -2.0 -18.67 -121.16 FCST HIM-8 31.2
2018FEB16 230000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -26.00 -56.46 CRVBND N/A -2.0 -18.68 -121.14 FCST HIM-8 31.2
2018FEB16 234000 3.1 998.8 +0.0 47.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF -6.37 -53.35 CRVBND N/A -2.0 -18.69 -121.11 FCST HIM-8 31.3
Utilizing history file /data2/mImagei


Image
Appears to be a small core trying to wrap on the micro.


Image
JTWC forcasting a cat1 sshs
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 10S)

#25 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:59 pm

Image
Just clipped the east side of the low @40kts barbs
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 10S)

#26 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:47 pm

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0121 UTC 17/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 120.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [212 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 17/0600: 19.3S 120.6E: 040 [080]: 040 [075]: 989
+12: 17/1200: 19.4S 120.8E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 985
+18: 17/1800: 19.4S 120.9E: 065 [125]: 050 [095]: 981
+24: 18/0000: 19.5S 121.1E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 18/1200: 19.8S 121.6E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 19/0000: 20.9S 122.2E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 990
+60: 19/1200: 22.2S 122.5E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 993
+72: 20/0000: 23.5S 122.5E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 992
+96: 21/0000: 27.0S 122.0E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 994
+120: 22/0000: 30.6S 124.7E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 996
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 17U was located using Port Hedland radar, microwave imagery and
surface observations.

Microwave imagery at 2139 and 2159 UTC showed deep convection to the SW of the
centre. EIR showed deep convection near the centre in the last 6 hours, this has
weakened slightly in the last hour or so.

Dvorak: Curved band wrap of 0.5 gives at DT of 2.5. 24 hours ago the centre was
over land.
ADT's are in reasonable agreement, though slightly higher [2.8/2.9]. Intensity
is set at 35 knots with gales in the southwest quadrant.

Conditions for development are favourable over open water, SSTs are in the range
27-29C, wind shear is low, there is evidence of good outflow aloft and upper
divergence to the south of the low. Recent movement has been towards the S/SW.
The system should reach tropical cyclone intensity this afternoon or evening as
motion slows due to the steering being finely balanced. Later Saturday and on
Sunday, an upper level trough will help steer the system towards the S/SE. It
may reach category 2 [55 knot 10 min average] intensity overnight or early
Sunday prior to crossing the coast between Pardoo Roadhouse and Bidyadanga
during Sunday.

After weakening below tropical cyclone intensity over the inland east Pilbara,
gales may persist to the east of the system due to the interaction with a ridge
to the southeast.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

#27 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:54 am

FKAU03 ADRM 170625
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180217/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: KELVIN
NR: 02
PSN: S1912 E12024
MOV: SLW
C: 990HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 17/1200 S1924 E12036
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 17/1800 S1930 E12054
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 18/0000 S1936 E12112
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 18/0600 S1942 E12130
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180217/1300Z


20180217/1300Z]Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 19.2 degrees South, 120.4 degrees East , 70 kilometres north northwest of Wallal Downs and 155 kilometres west southwest of Bidyadanga .
Movement: slow moving .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has developed off the west Kimberley coast and is gradually strengthening. The system will be slow moving during the afternoon and evening. Kelvin will begin to move towards the southeast overnight and may intensify into a category 2 tropical cyclone before crossing the coast between Bidyadanga and Pardoo Roadhouse during Sunday morningImage.
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE KELVIN

#28 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:29 am

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. ) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.1S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.6S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.5S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.0S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.9S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SWEEPING BAND OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A MORE PERSISTENT AREA
OF CONVECTION CO-LOCATED WITH THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 170600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A 170122Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS SEVERAL 40 KNOT
WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE,
RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 10S WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 10S WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH ALL
MODELS NOW INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO LANDFALL
FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS Image



https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ ... LVIN/atcf/
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:56 pm

Microwave eye and a closed eyewall... I would expect some significant changes in the next BOM TC advice:

Image

Broome radar:

Image

Source: Weatherzone

Satcon is up to 80 kt:

Image
Last edited by WAcyclone on Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:19 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1831 UTC 17/02/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.2S
Longitude: 120.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [062 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 18/0000: 19.2S 121.2E: 040 [080]: 040 [075]: 985
+12: 18/0600: 19.5S 121.7E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 988
+18: 18/1200: 20.0S 122.0E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 990
+24: 18/1800: 20.6S 122.2E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 990
+36: 19/0600: 22.0S 122.4E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 992
+48: 19/1800: 23.5S 122.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 992
+60: 20/0600: 25.0S 122.5E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 992
+72: 20/1800: 26.6S 122.7E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 993
+96: 21/1800: 30.1S 124.8E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 994
+120: 22/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
ASCAT pass at 1352Z supports a small, minimal intensity TC, with gales extending
through most of the eastern semicircle.

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin [17U] was located using the Broome radar.

Structure remains poor over the last 12 hours, with convection limited to a
small CDO with no banding features, set wiithin a broader circulation with
limited convection.

Dvorak: It is dificult to apply a valid scene type so no DT has been derived.
The trend is steady over 24 hours based on colder cloud tops but poorer banding.
The low-confidence FT is 2.5 and CI is held at 3.0. ADT remains close to 3.0.
SATCON is slightly higher at 42 knots 1-minute wind, influenced by an AMSU
sounding that suggested 54 knots [1-min]; which seems too high given other
evidence. Final intensity estimate is 40 knots.

Stations on land are yet to report gales.

Conditions for development are favourable over open water, SSTs are in the range
27-29C, wind shear is low to moderate [10-15 knots from the NNE] , and there is
evidence of good outflow aloft and upper divergence.

After weakening below tropical cyclone intensity over the inland east Pilbara,
gales may persist to the east of the system due to the interaction with a ridge
to the southeast.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:10 pm

JTWC just issued an "Amended" warning with an updated intensity of 60 knots. BOM also quickly upgraded Kelvin to the same intensity which makes it a Category 2 on the Australian scale. I still think the storm may be a bit stronger than this.

WTXS31 PGTW 172100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AMENDED //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.9S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.5S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.2S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A BROADENING AREA OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME
REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 171930Z PGTW RADAR
FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 171932Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY A 171710Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 61 KNOTS, DESPITE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE
OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S CREATING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CONVERGING WITH ANY
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE NEARBY POINT SOURCE, THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 10S IS
INITIALLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC 10S
WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA BY TAU 6 AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT:
CHANGED INITIAL LOCATION AND INTENSITY TO 60 KTS AND FORECAST TO
REFLECT HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. //
NNNN


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Last edited by WAcyclone on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:26 pm

Making landfall.

@metofficestorms
Tropical Cyclone #Kelvin currently making landfall over the coast of Western #Australia.


 https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/965001016541368320


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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:42 pm

@RyanMaue
As the sun rose, Cyclone Kelvin (10S) formed an eye as it made landfall along the NW Australia coastline ... intensity estimated at 80-knots -- equiv to a strong Category 1 hurricane. Impressive satellite imagery -- last 8-hours: https://weather.us/satellite/1216-e-212 ... html#play4


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965037604528734208


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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:41 am

Wew!

Image
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10S KELVIN 180218 0600 19.8S 122.0E SHEM 80 963
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby WAcyclone » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:01 am

Definitely one of the most beautiful overland-storms I have seen so far:

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/965125399041654784




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Full-resolution version of this image


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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:39 am

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:15 am

The following alert has been issued by the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES).
Time of issue: 06:41 PM
Date of issue: 18 February 2018

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin, category 2 will continue to move inland across the far west Kimberley and far east Pilbara and start to weaken overnight. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre this evening.

It is moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is estimated to be 165 kilometres south southeast of Bidyadanga and 180 kilometres north of Telfer.

Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour and very heavy rainfall are likely to be occurring near the centre of the tropical cyclone, inland of the far western Kimberley and far eastern Pilbara. Destructive winds will ease early Monday morning.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely over remaining parts inland into the far western Kimberley, far eastern Pilbara and far northwest North Interior District. The area of gales will move further inland, possibly as far as Telfer and Parnngurr on Monday morning. Gales are no longer expected in coastal areas between Bidyandanga and Sandfire.

Damaging winds to 100 kilometres per hour may persist to the east of the system once it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity until Tuesday morning

Very heavy rainfall is likely to continue near the system over the far west Kimberley and far east Pilbara, extending into the western North Interior overnight. Flood Watches and Warnings are current.


ROAD CLOSURES AND CONDITIONS:

Some roads may be closed and motorists are asked to reduce speed and drive carefully. Road repairs are in progress.Traffic management in place with speed restrictions of 40 kilometres per hour.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Some roads may be closed due to rising flood waters.

Kimberley:

Great Northern Highway from Sandfire Roadhouse to Roebuck Roadhouse is closed to all vehicles


https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au/index.html#


AXAU01-APRF: Perth Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

18/0706 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin 17U 19.8°S 122.1°E 60 knots 975 hPa
18/0124 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin 17U 19.2°S 121.6°E 60 knots 975 hPa
17/2325 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin 17U 19.2°S 121.4°E 55 knots 980 hPa
17/1831 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin 17U 19.2°S 120.9°E 40 knots 988 hPa
17/1316 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin 17U 19.3°S 120.7°E 40 knots 988 hPa
17/0709 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin 17U 19.2°S 120.4°E 40 knots 990 hPa
17/0121 Tropical Low 17U 19.1°S 120.6°E 35 knots 994 hPa
16/1908 Tropical Low 17U 18.6°S 121.2°E 30 knots 995 hPa
16/1427 Tropical Low 17U 18.2°S 121.2°E 30 knots 995 hPa
16/1310 Tropical Low 17U 18.2°S 121.2°E 30 knots 995 hPa
16/0655 Tropical Low 17U 17.7°S 121.6°E 25 knots 998 hPa
16/0122 Tropical Low 17U 17.4°S 122.2°E 25 knots 999 hPa
15/1901 Tropical Low 17U 17.2°S 123.3°E 25 knots 999 hPa
15/1331 Tropical Low 17U 16.8°S 124.7°E 25 knots 998 hPa
15/0715 Tropical Low 17U 16.1°S 125.5°E 30 knots 998 hPa
15/0131 Tropical Low 17U 15.2°S 126.1°E 25 knots 1000 hPa
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:04 am

Still looking pretty good as it moves inland.

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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby Highteeld » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:29 am

Are there any stations inland that have recorded wind from Kelvin? Or is the area it is over too remote?
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:36 pm

Never seen a storm look this impressive this far inland before. :eek:
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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