SIO: KELVIN - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:09 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1850 UTC 18/02/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 21.0S
Longitude: 122.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 19/0000: 21.8S 122.8E: 025 [050]: 035 [065]: 990
+12: 19/0600: 22.6S 123.0E: 040 [070]: 035 [065]: 991
+18: 19/1200: 23.4S 123.2E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 990
+24: 19/1800: 24.3S 123.4E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 990
+36: 20/0600: 26.0S 123.6E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 992
+48: 20/1800: 27.6S 124.4E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 992
+60: 21/0600: 29.4S 125.9E: 125 [230]: 025 [045]: 995
+72: 21/1800: : : :
+96: 22/1800: : : :
+120: 23/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is showing signs of weakening as it continues to move
further inland. The eye pattern which was observed during Sunday is no longer
evident however the system remains well organised with deep convection still
occurring near the centre.

The cyclone should gradually weaken but at a slower rate than normal given the
favourable atmospheric environment [low shear and upper level divergence] and
the flat terrain.

Kelvin is a small system having gales estimated to less than 100km from the
centre. As it tracks to the south southeast overnight, gales are expected to
become more asymmetric and during Monday gales may persist on the eastern side
even as the system is downgraded below TC intensity.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:50 pm

Image
Just a rain depression now.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:37 pm

Heh, instantaneous DT is still 4.5 due to an off-white eye embedded in medium grey.

Image
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:09 pm

Image

¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:19 pm

JTWC is maintaining 70 kt for 00Z. This system is silly.

10S KELVIN 180219 0000 21.5S 123.0E SHEM 70 970
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:24 pm

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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:27 pm

Image

Looks really nothin on this satpic above

http://ozforecast.com.au/sat/IDE00405.mp4

Image
I can see the off white dot.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:45 pm

FKAU03 ADRM 190040
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180219/0000Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: KELVIN
NR: 09
PSN: S2136 E12248
MOV: SSE 06KT
C: 990HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 19/0600 S2224 E12300
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 19/1200 S2312 E12312
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 19/1800 S2406 E12324
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 20/0000 S2454 E12330
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 30KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180219/0700Z
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby AJC3 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:48 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Never seen a storm look this impressive this far inland before. :eek:


First system that comes to mind as having a progressively better-looking satellite presentation for 12+ hours as it moved farther and farther inland is T.S. Fay over Florida in 2008.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#50 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:28 pm

http://www.savanna.org.au/all/landphoons.html
Image

Image
Image

............................................................................................................


Yeah i have heard the brown ocean affect.USA had that flood back in season 2016 i think
from a unnamed TD type of that drifted off GOM and lingered about just spinning and flooding.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#51 Postby AJC3 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:37 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:http://www.savanna.org.au/all/landphoons.html


There have been sources that have referred to this as the "Brown Ocean" effect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Tropical Cyclone

#52 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:48 pm

1900hurricane wrote:JTWC is maintaining 70 kt for 00Z. This system is silly.

10S KELVIN 180219 0000 21.5S 123.0E SHEM 70 970


Image

Image
Image
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

#53 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:34 am

AXAU01 APRF 190715
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 19/02/2018
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 22.0S
Longitude: 123.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [155 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 19/1200: 22.8S 123.5E: 025 [050]: 035 [065]: 990
+12: 19/1800: 23.6S 123.6E: 040 [070]: 035 [065]: 990
+18: 20/0000: 24.4S 123.7E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 991
+24: 20/0600: 25.4S 123.8E: 065 [120]: 030 [055]: 991
+36: 20/1800: 26.9S 124.5E: 085 [155]: 025 [045]: 992
+48: 21/0600: 28.8S 125.7E: 100 [185]: 025 [045]: 992
+60: 21/1800: : : :
+72: 22/0600: : : :
+96: 23/0600: : : :
+120: 24/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Kelvin has weakened below cyclone intensity, however damaging winds may still
occur about the eastern periphery of the system centre until Tuesday afternoon.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
No further bulletins will be issued for this system.


Image
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Re: SIO: KELVIN - Post-Tropical

#54 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:45 pm

Looks like intensifying hurricane-strength inland cyclones with a true warm core have only been observed in Australia so far. Here's a very interesting excerpt from Emanuel et al. (2008):

"[...] some storms are observed to reintensify after making landfall in northern Australia, even though no significant extratropical interactions are apparent. Here we argue that the hot, sandy soils of northern Australia may store enough heat and, after they are wetted by the first rains of an oncoming cyclone, may be able to diffuse heat upward rapidly enough to sustain warm-core storms of marginal hurricane intensity.
Given the apparent uniqueness of such events to Australia, we call them agukabams, a word constructed from aboriginal roots."
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: KELVIN - Post-Tropical

#55 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:46 pm

Image
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