WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.6S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.5S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.4S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
380 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.6S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 390 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
275 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION, LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS STARTING TO
WRAP INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 030552Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND DEEPER CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 11S. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FAVORABLE (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND THERE IS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING
FROM 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW FOR TC 11S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TC 11S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND THEN BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AIDES WHICH FAVOR A
WIDER TURN AROUND THE STR, TRACKING CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR AND JGSM
WHICH FAVORS A SHARPER TURN, TRACKING CLOSER TO LA REUNION.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
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