SPAC: HOLA - Post-Tropical

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SPAC: HOLA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:21 pm

Image


Location: 16.2°S 172.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 97P

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:22 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 174.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 173.1E, APPROXIMATELY
276 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BECAUSE OF
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A 041020Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD CIRCULATION. SST REMAINS WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP 97P IN THE TAU 36-60 RANGE AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F/INVEST 97P

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:25 am

FQPS01 NFFN 060600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Mar 060800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 060708
UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 169.7E AT
060600UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION CENTRE.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 004.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 070600 UTC.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 07S 160E 10S 166E TO TD09F. CZ1 SLOW MOVING.
POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1.

TROUGH T1 13S 160E 14S 167E TO TD09S TO 20S 170E 25S 173E. T1 SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONA SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2.

TROUGH T2 FM TD09F TO 17S 175E 20S 180. T2 SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2.

TROUGH T3 17S 177W 22S 174W 25S 173 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF
T3.

TROUGH T4 14S 172W 15S 160W 16S 150W 20S 141W 25S 135W SLOW MOVING.
POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4.

WEAK TROUGH T5 22S 151W 25S 145W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5.

OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 005 AND WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF TD09F
CENTRE, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS.

OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 005 AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1,
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

IN THE AREA NORTH OF 05S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 145W, EXPECT MODERATE
EASTERLY SWELLS.

IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 12S EAST OF 135E, EXPECT MODERATE EASTERLY
SWELLS.







Image
Advisory Number 3 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:24pm VUT Tuesday 6 March 2018.

At 5:00pm local time, the tropical low (997 hPa) was located near 15.9S 170.4E.
The Tropical Low is positioned at the bottom center of the square letter J,
number 5 (J,5) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. This is about
250 KM east of Ambrym. Winds close to the center are estimated at 55 KM/HR.
The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical cyclone within the next
24 to 48 hours is moderate to high. In the last 6 hours, the system had moved
west southwest at 12 KM/HR.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 6 Mar) 16.2S, 169.8E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 7 Mar) 16.4S, 169.1E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 7 Mar) 16.7S, 168.4E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 7 Mar) 16.9S, 167.7E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 8 Mar) 17.2S, 166.7E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 8 Mar) 17.7S, 166.5E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 9 Mar) 18.3S, 167.0E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 9 Mar) 19.7S, 168.3E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)

Isolated heavy rainfalls with possible flooding are expected throughout Vanuatu
group tonight and tomorrow. A strong wind warning for all open coastal waters
of Vanuatu is current. A Severe weather warning for heavy rainfalls with
possible flooding over low lying areas and strong inland winds is also current.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department is closely monitoring the
system and will issue the next Advisory at 12:00am or earlier if the situation
changes.

People are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu and other Radio Outlets to get
an update information on this system.

This advisory is also available on VMGD website: http://www.vmgd.gov.vuImage.
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Re: SPAC: Hola - Tropical Cyclone

#4 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:17 am

Fiji has named it "Hola"

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 061404 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
169.0E AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 16.3S 167.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 16.7S 166.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 17.2S 166.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 17.9S 166.6E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 062000 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:28 am

@JMGarciaRivera
#Cyclone #Hola (I love the name) has formed & it's affecting the Vanuatu Islands with 35kts (JTWC & RSMC estimates). Expected to become strong, could threaten northern #NouvelleCaledonie islands in 72hrs. ECMWF-GFS discrepancies on speed/recurvature could mean direct hit or not.


 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/971057972217634818


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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:22 pm

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 for PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 5:50am VUT Wednesday 7 March 2018
for PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA province.

At 5:00am local time today, Tropical Cyclone HOLA was located at
16.3 degrees South 168.5 degrees East. This is about 45 KM east of Ambrym
and 145 KM north of Efate. Tropical Cyclone HOLA is positioned at the top
centre of square letter H, number 6 (H,6) of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone
Tracking Map. Tropical Cyclone HOLA is slowly moving in the southwest
direction at 12 KM/HR (6 knots) in the past 3 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 990 hPa. Winds close to
the centre are estimated at 75 KM/HR (40 knots). Tropical Cyclone HOLA is
forecast to be at 16.7 degrees South 167.4 degrees East within the next
06 to 12 hours.

Damaging gale force winds of 75 KM/HR (40 knots) are expected to affect
PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA provinces today and the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 7 Mar) 16.5S, 167.9E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 7 Mar) 16.7S, 167.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 7 Mar) 17.0S, 166.9E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 8 Mar) 17.2S, 166.6E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 8 Mar) 17.7S, 166.3E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 9 Mar) 18.5S, 166.9E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5pm, 9 Mar) 19.7S, 168.3E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5am, 10 Mar) 21.7S, 170.2E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)

Damaging gale force winds and very rough seas with heavy swells will affect
PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA provinces. Heavy rainfall, thunder storm and flash
flooding over low lying areas and areas close to river banks including coastal
flooding will continue to affect these provinces. Marine strong wind warning
is also current for all open coastal waters of Vanuatu. High seas warning for
Vanuatu area has also been issued.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises that Red Alert is
now in effect for PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA provinces. For action on this alert,
call the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) on 22699 or 33366.

The next warning on Tropical Cyclone HOLA will be issued at 9:00am today.

People over PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA are advised to listen to all Radio Outlet
for the latest information on this system.

The warning is also available on the VMGD website: http://www.vmgd.gov.vuImage
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:39 pm

Image
Hurricane model blows this system up.
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:14 pm

Hola is considerably stronger than the agencies are currently estimating. ASCAT has wind vectors up to 55 kt, and microwave data shows a consolidating core. This may be around 65 kt right now.

Image

Image
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:39 pm

Image

Image

Pretty good indercation by the lightening its intensifying in day time. May ramp up quite a few
notch's over night.


FKPS01 NFFN 061918
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180306/1800Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: HOLA
NR: 02
PSN: S1606 E16824
MOV: WSW 07KT
C: 987HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 07/0000 S1618 E16748
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/0600 S1630 E16718
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 07/1200 S1648 E16642
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 07/1800 S1700 E16624
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180307/0100Z


50/min
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:59 pm

Looks like an eye is trying to emerge on visible imagery.

Image
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:35 pm

Image
18Z looking a good ace system.
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby Alyono » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:17 pm

could have a significant strike on New Zealand in about 5 days
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:47 am

Up to 65 knots.

12P HOLA 180307 1200 16.6S 166.6E SHEM 65 994
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:47 am

Current DT is 5.0 for a center embedded over half a degree in black or colder. Since I think Hola was about 65 kt 12-18 hours ago, constraints wouldn't affect my intensity estimate, leading to an estimate of about 90 kt. IR imagery also shows hints of the eye trying to emerge from the center of the CDO. Hola may be about to rapidly intensify.

Image

Image
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:16 am

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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:49 am

JTWC says 65 kts, Fiji (official RSMC) says 50kts (10-min). With the eye clearing out, I'd say it's closing in on 100 kts soon. Possibly 90-95kts now.
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby Highteeld » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:10 pm

Appearance on Dvorak right now looks much more intense than 65 kts. More like 90-100, and that looks to increase even more today.
Image
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby Highteeld » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:35 pm

Image
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:46 pm

It's not surprising to see the system ramp up with its current microwave structure.

Image
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Re: SPAC: HOLA - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby NotoSans » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:44 pm

Estimates from official agencies still lagging a little bit behind.

TPPS10 PGTW 071813

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 16.93S

D. 166.19E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A
4.0 WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO CONSTRAINTS (T>4.0 LIMIT CHANGE
OF T2.5 IN 24 HRS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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