WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TD
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 24 March 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 24 March>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N5°10' (5.2°)
E144°30' (144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 March>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°05' (7.1°)
E139°30' (139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 241501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (S OF GUAM)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 5.90N

D. 142.12E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1152Z 5.98N 142.82E MMHS


LOWE

TXPQ22 KNES 241517
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 6.1N

D. 143.1E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. LARGER THAN 0.2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 03W.Is forecast to recurve and be a Typhoon.



WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR
01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AND
PARTIALLY OCCLUDING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY AND A 241830Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH
AND AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP ISLAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24
AND CONTINUE TO RECURVE. 03W WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU
72, TRACKING TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, REACHING BUT NOT PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INITIAL POSITION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 96, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COUPLED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 242215
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
736 AM ChST Sun Mar 25 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W FORMED SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
None.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Ulithi, Fais, Yap and
Ngulu in Yap State, and Kayangel and Koror in Palau.

A Tropical Storm Watch means damaging winds are possible within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Summary of 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...5.7N 142.2E

About 565 miles south-southwest of Guam
About 695 miles south-southwest of Saipan
About 545 miles east-southeast of Koror
About 370 miles east-southeast of Ngulu
About 385 miles southeast of Yap
About 340 miles south-southeast of Ulithi
About 305 miles south-southeast of Fais
About 255 miles southwest of Faraulep
About 165 miles southwest of Woleai

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 16 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 03W
was located near Latitude 5.7 North and Longitude 142.2 East.
Tropical Depression 03W is moving toward the west at 16 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with
little change in forward speed through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph. Tropical Depression 03W is
forecast to intensify through tonight and might become a tropical
storm late this evening. Some islands might be placed in a
Tropical Storm Warning later today.

Next advisory
-------------
The next intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 1100 AM and then followed by a scheduled advisory
at 200 PM this afternoon.

$$

ChanChan




000
WTPQ81 PGUM 250021
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1021 AM CHST SUN MAR 25 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W FORMED SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI, FAIS, YAP AND
NGULU IN YAP STATE, AND KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN PALAU.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP...
NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI, FAIS, YAP AND
NGULU IN YAP STATE, AND KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN PALAU.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS BETWEEN KOROR AND YAP ON MONDAY.

...YAP AND NGULU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON YAP AND NGULU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.
AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. STOCK
UP ON FOOD AND WATER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL SHIFT TO EAST ON MONDAY AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 10 TO 14 FT ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REACH
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 16 FT TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD TO
SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 03W PASSES
BY. STORM SURGE WITH INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY
EVENING. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED. STOCK UP ON FOOD AND WATER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...INCREASING
FURTHER TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 8 TO 10 FT ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SURF WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DANGEROUS AT 12 TO 16 FEET
MONDAY. SURF WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG WEST FACING REEFS...REACHING
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON MONDAY. STORM SURGE WITH
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE REEFS ARE NARROW.
THIS PRIMARILY INCLUDES ANGAUR...PELELIU...BABELDAOB...AND KAYANGEL.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

...ULITHI AND FAIS...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON FAIS AND ULITHI SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL CRAFT RETURN TO PORT. AVOID
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. STOCK UP ON
FOOD AND WATER IF NEEDED. SERVICES COULD BE DISRUPTED FOR A FEW DAYS
ON IMPACTED ISLANDS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THEN BUILD TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 10 TO 14 FT ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF COULD REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 16
FEET OVERNIGHT. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW DANGEROUS
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL SPREAD TO SOUTH FACING REEFS. STORM
SURGE WITH INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS OF ULITHI AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Maybe a TY brewing. Your lucky in this basin euro6208 the title gets updated almost instantly with the fresh advisories. Shem not so lucky could be upto 12hrs before the title is updated.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

A tropical storm warning will be in effect at 200 PM ChST for
Kayangel and Koror in the Republic of Palau, and for Yap Island and
Ngulu in Yap State.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA upgrades 03W into Tropical Storm "Jelawat", the NWPac's 3rd named storm this 2018...
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TS 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 25 March 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 25 March>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°10' (6.2°)
E140°25' (140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 170 km (90 NM)
S 110 km (60 NM)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FKPQ30 RJTD 250600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180325/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: JELAWAT
NR: 06
PSN: N0610 E14025
MOV: WNW 11KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 25/1200Z N0635 E13925
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 25/1800Z N0700 E13825
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 26/0000Z N0730 E13725
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 26/0600Z N0805 E13620
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180325/1200Z =

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP
WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION IN A RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY
WARM (30C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND,
ONCE THE LLC CONSOLIDATES, WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BY
TAU 72, TD 03W WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STEERING STR. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
SUSTAIN ITS TYPHOON INTENSITY UP TO TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND A LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH
THE LLC, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WIDE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A 250923Z 91GHZ SSMIS PASS AND AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION IN THE 251133Z ASCAT IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HEDGED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5
TO T2.0. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (30C) SSTS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND, ONCE
THE LLC CONSOLIDATES, WILL PROMOTE MODEST INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72,
TD 03W WILL PEAK AT A TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STEERING STR. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
BE MOSTLY OFFSET BY INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS THAT WILL ERODE
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 251455
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
1255 AM ChST Mon Mar 26 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
None.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Kayangel and Koror
in the Republic of Palau, and for Yap Island and Ngulu in Yap State.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Ulithi and Fais in Yap State.

A tropical storm warning means that damaging winds of at least 39 mph
are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Summary of 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...7.0N 138.6E

About 115 miles southeast of Ngulu
About 150 miles west-southwest of Sorol
About 175 miles south of Yap
About 210 miles south-southwest of Ulithi
About 230 miles southwest of Fais
About 275 miles east-southeast of Kayangel
About 290 miles east of Koror
About 300 miles east of Peleliu
About 305 miles east of Angaur
About 610 miles southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 14 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Jelawat will be located near Latitude 7.0 North and Longitude
138.6 East. Tropical Depression Jelawat is moving toward the
west-northwest at 14 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn
toward the northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed
through Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Tropical Depression
Jelawat is forecast to intensify through Tuesday, possibly
becoming a tropical storm this afternoon.

Next advisory
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

ASCAT satellite passed directly over Tropical Depression Jelawat last
night, showing its center near 7N139E. The monsoonal characteristics
of 20 to 30-knot winds north of the center and only 10 to 20-knot
winds to the south are still visible. Also, deep convection remains
mainly northwest of the center near Yap. Based on this, decided to
tone down winds, seas, surf and rainfall amount for Koror in the
near- term forecast this morning and also during the passage of
Jelawat between Koror and Yap thru this evening. For Yap, maintained
strong winds and heavy showers thru this afternoon, then decreased
showers and winds this evening. Once Jelawat has pulled farther
northwest of Koror and Yap late tonight, things should quickly
improve. However, modest converging southwest to southeast winds near
the end of a near-equatorial trough related to Jelawat will maintain
isolated thunderstorms for both places thru Tuesday night. By
midweek, surface ridging should establish over far Western Micronesia
with more stable conditions.

[euro6208]

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
The Tropical Storm Warning for Koror in the Republic of Palau is
cancelled.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Ulithi and Fais in Yap State is
cancelled.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Yap and Ngulu in Yap
State, and Kayangel in the Republic of Palau.

[euro6208]

EURO, GFS, and HWRF.

[euro6208]

Looking like a real mess...Latest coordinates from JTWC and JMA are almost spot on. 8N 136.5E...8N 136.7, halfway between Palau and Yap.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
STRUGGLE AS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW CURVED BANDING FEEDING INTO
THE LLC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (18-29C) SSTS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AND, ONCE THE LLC CONSOLIDATES, WILL PROMOTE MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 03W WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD JELAWAT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STEERING STR. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
BE MOSTLY OFFSET BY INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS THAT WILL ERODE
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120 JUST SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN,
WHERE IT WILL BEGIN ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 261004
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
804 PM CHST MON MAR 26 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT WEST OF NGULU MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JELAWAT WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 136.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 95 MILES WEST OF NGULU
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 140 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 680 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS SEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

...KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL AT
LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HEED DIRECTIONS GIVEN BY EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WIND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEST EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 10 TO 13 FT ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES WILL SPREAD TO
WEST FACING SHORES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9
FEET ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT WILL SPREAD TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LESS THAN ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$

NIERENBERG

[euro6208]