SouthPAC: ex-IRIS

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

SouthPAC: ex-IRIS

#1 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:02 pm

Looks like you guys let one sneak by you. Fiji just named TC Iris in the South Pacific:

Name: Tropical Cyclone Iris
Situation At: 1800 UTC Friday 23 March 2018
Location: 14.3S, 163.0E
Recent Movement: SW at 13 km/h

Image
1 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: IRIS - Tropical Cyclone

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:50 am

Original source: http://www.meteo.gov.vu/tcmod/tcmfiles/IDV20100.txt, recovered at: 2018-03-24 0715Z

Advisory Number 5 on Tropical Cyclone IRIS issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:02pm VUT Saturday 24 March 2018.

At 5:00pm local time, the Tropical Cyclone IRIS [990 hPa] Category 1 was located
near 14.4S 159.9E. Tropical Cyclone IRIS is positioned west of 160.0 degrees
longitude East and outside of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This
is about 730 KM west of Santo. In the past 3 hours, the system was moving in a
west southwesterly direction at 53 KM/HR.

The potential for Tropical Cyclone IRIS to further intensify and moves back to
towards Vanuatu group is low. Tropical Cyclone IRIS is forecasted to be at 14.9S
and 159.4E in the next 6 hours, outside of the Vanuatué area of responsibility.

Gale force winds of 75 KM/HR (40 knots) are expected to weaken as the system
continues to track further west southwest in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 24 Mar) 14.9S, 159.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 25 Mar) 15.4S, 159.1E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 25 Mar) 15.8S, 158.8E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 25 Mar) 16.3S, 158.6E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 26 Mar) 17.3S, 158.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 26 Mar) 18.4S, 158.5E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 27 Mar) 19.5S, 158.5E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 27 Mar) 20.5S, 158.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfalls and possible flash flooding expected over low lying areas and
areas close to the river banks including coastal flooding expected over northern
and parts of the central islands. Seas will remain rough with heavy swells over
northern and central waters.

Severe weather warning is current for northern and central islands. Marine strong
wind warning is current for northern and central waters. High seas warning is also
current for Vanuatu's north-west quadrant.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises that all clear
is now given for all the northern and central provinces. For any furthetr queries,
conatct NDMO on 22699 or 33366.

This will be the final advisory on Tropical Cyclone IRIS, unless it turns back.

This Final Advisory is also available on VMGD's website: http://www.vmgd.gov.vuImageImage.Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: New York City

Re: SouthPAC: IRIS - Tropical Cyclone

#3 Postby Iune » Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:38 pm

Well, that was a waste of a name.
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: New York City

Re: SouthPAC: IRIS - Tropical Cyclone

#4 Postby Iune » Sat Mar 24, 2018 5:04 pm

Curiously, the JTWC is currently predicting the storm to intensify and peak with 50kts winds, while the BoM doesn't forecast Iris to regain tropical cyclone intensity.
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: IRIS - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:16 pm

Image

Image

Little window of favourable shear conditions for this cyclone to become moderate strength

Those westerlies in the N-Hem are crossing the eq into the shem @150.

EC had a v/different take on its future.

Image
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: IRIS - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:36 am

Tropical Storm 17P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 MAR 2018 Time : 074000 UTC
Lat : 15:22:16 S Lon : 158:38:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1003.7mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -26.6C Cloud Region Temp : -38.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.80 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 14:22:11 S Lon: 158:02:23 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.4 degrees



Bom has nothing at all.
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: ex-Iris

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:18 am

17P IRIS
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 01, 2018:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
Location: 14.5°S 148.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
Image

IRIS's remains have been touring the coral sea. Ukmet suggests the system will re-fire and may pose a threat for SE QLD as it rolls down the coast line re-intensifying .


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SouthPAC: ex-Iris

#8 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:47 am

Former Iris appears to be back to TS strength, though BoM isn't mentioning it yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Subtropical Low

#9 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:05 am

Well, BoM IS mentioning Iris in their tropical outlook, saying it is a subtropical storm. It doesn't look like a subtropical low, to me.
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Subtropical Low

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:14 am

Yeah, looks tropical to me also... and with healthy amount of deep convection.

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
WAcyclone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 349
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Subtropical Low

#11 Postby WAcyclone » Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:29 am

This system looks quite disorganized to me. The radar at Willis Island seems to be be very close to the centre but it hasn't recorded any significant winds yet. Lowest pressure seems to be around 1000 hpa:

Image

Image

Source: weatherzone
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Subtropical Low

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:16 pm

Strongest winds would be to the east and southeast of the center. ASCAT missed, but they may be up to 35 kts.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Subtropical Low

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:36 pm

Should this be merged with the old Iris thread?
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: ex-Iris

#14 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:10 pm

No mention of a Subtropical Low on the latest.


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 6:10 am EST on Monday 2 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 4:00am EST Monday, the centre of ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 16.7 degrees south, longitude 149.5 degrees east, about 400 km east of Cairns. The low is currently moving slowly south-southwest.

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is likely to continue moving slowly southwest towards the tropical Queensland coast through most of today. There is some uncertainty beyond this time. Current indications are that the system will remain off of the Queensland coast and become slow moving later today. It is expected to eventually turn east and move away from the coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The system has developed further overnight, and conditions are somewhat favourable for development to continue through today and Tuesday. The probability of the system redeveloping into a tropical cyclone is rated as moderate today, increasing to high on Tuesday.

A severe weather warning is current for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts about the periphery of the cyclone that may affect the tropical coast from tonight; refer to that product for more information.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:High
Wednesday:




Image


Impeccable timing maybe for a track map output.First day back after the Easter break.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: ex-Iris

#15 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:Former Iris appears to be back to TS strength, though BoM isn't mentioning it yet.


They agreed with you.


Sunday, April 01, 2018 11:47:39 AM

]By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty

While not officially a tropical cyclone, Iris will still threaten the central coast of eastern Queensland with flooding rainfall through the coming week. Iris has an impressive presentation on satellite with what appears to be a closed low-level circulation and robust convection near and to the east of the center. If this was in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins, I think this would certainly be a tropical depression, if not a tropical storm.
1 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:10 pm

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:16 am EST on Monday 2 April 2018
At 10 am AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Iris (Category 1) with central pressure
995 hPa was located over the Coral Sea
near latitude 16.9 south longitude 148.7 east, which is about 310 km east of
Cairns and 330 km northeast of Townsville.

The cyclone is moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Iris has redeveloped in the Coral Sea off the tropical
Queensland coast.

Tropical cyclone Iris is expected to continue moving southwest for most of the
day today, before becoming slow moving tonight. On Tuesday the system is
expected to turn east and move away from the Queensland coast. It may develop
further, but is not expected to cross the Queensland coast.

Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are possible about coastal and island
areas between about Rollingstone and Sarina as the cyclone makes its closest
approach to the coast. A severe weather warning is current for these
conditions; refer to that product for more information.


The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm AEST todayImage.







IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0232 UTC 02/04/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iris
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 148.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 02/0600: 17.3S 148.6E: 030 [060]: 040 [075]: 992
+12: 02/1200: 17.4S 148.6E: 045 [080]: 040 [075]: 989
+18: 02/1800: 17.5S 148.5E: 055 [105]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 03/0000: 17.7S 148.6E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 986
+36: 03/1200: 17.9S 149.2E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 04/0000: 18.1S 149.7E: 110 [200]: 050 [095]: 982
+60: 04/1200: 18.4S 150.6E: 130 [235]: 045 [085]: 985
+72: 05/0000: 18.5S 151.1E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 988
+96: 06/0000: 18.8S 152.1E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 996
+120: 07/0000: 18.5S 152.8E: 280 [515]: 030 [055]: 996
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Iris has redeveloped convection around its centre during the
past 24 hours, particularly overnight. Banding and curvature have steadily
improved, although the low level circulation centre remains partially exposed.

Intensity is analysed at 40 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis using a
visible curved band pattern gave a 0.6 wrap at 00Z, yielding DT3.0. MET and PAT
are 2.5, with the final T based on the DT. This is supported by the 2230Z ASCAT
pass showing a swathe of gales through the eastern flank of the system. In the
southwest quadrant, the automatic weather station at Flinders Reef recorded
gales from 012000Z to 020030Z, peaking with a 43 knot mean at 012200Z.

The system currently lies under an estimated 10 to 20 knots of northerly shear,
due to the influence of an upper atmospheric anticyclone to the east, and an
upper atmospheric trough to the west. This has inhibited the rate of development
somewhat. Otherwise conditions are broadly favourable for further development
through approximately the next 24 to 36 hours, so slow further development is
forecast over this period. Beyond this time the upper trough strengthens and
moves over the system, increasing the deep layer wind shear, so weakening is
forecast from Wednesday.

Recent movement to the southwest has been due to the combination of a mid-level
anticyclone to the east of the system, combined with the influence of another
anticyclone to the southwest which has partially ridged under the system. These
two semi-competing steering influences will cause movement to be slow and
erratic for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond this time, the upper trough
described above should steer the system east away from the Queensland coast.
There is good confidence that the system will not cross the coast based on
numerical deterministic and ensemble guidance.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: Iris - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:44 pm

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0136 UTC 03/04/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iris
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 149.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [140 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 03/0600: 17.5S 149.1E: 035 [070]: 055 [100]: 992
+12: 03/1200: 17.8S 149.4E: 050 [090]: 055 [100]: 990
+18: 03/1800: 18.1S 149.7E: 060 [115]: 060 [110]: 985
+24: 04/0000: 18.4S 150.0E: 075 [135]: 065 [120]: 980
+36: 04/1200: 18.9S 150.6E: 095 [175]: 065 [120]: 980
+48: 05/0000: 19.1S 150.8E: 125 [230]: 055 [100]: 986
+60: 05/1200: 19.3S 150.7E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 06/0000: 19.1S 150.5E: 170 [315]: 040 [075]: 990
+96: 07/0000: 18.6S 149.6E: 235 [435]: 030 [055]: 998
+120: 08/0000: 18.2S 148.6E: 320 [590]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Iris was located by recent visible imagery combined with radar
and previous microwave imagery overnight. Deep convection has persisted to the
south of the centre overnight and this morning.

Intensity of 50kn influenced by earlier observations at Flinders Reef to the
southwest which briefly peaked at 58kn but more consistently between 35-45kn.
The intensity is higher than conventional Dvorak estimate of 3.0 based on MET
and time-averaged shear pattern. The most recent Vis images may even suggest DT
is more likely 2.5 based on the displacement of the centre from the deep
convection.

Winds are strongest south of the centre being enhanced by the sub-tropical ridge
to the south. Gales have also been recorded at Holmes Reef and Willis Island on
the northern side of the system.

Motion has been slow in the last 24 hours under competing steering influences,
although the mid-level ridge to the east will assist in a more consistent SE
track from tonight through to Thursday combined with an approaching upper level
trough. By Thursday this upper trough is expected to weaken the circulation by
increasing the wind shear.

Beyond this time, there is considerable uncertainty in the track. Some guidance
indicates the system will cross the coast but below cyclone intensity.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.Image
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: SouthPAC: ex-IRIS

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:47 pm

Still hanging around.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: SouthPAC: ex-IRIS

#19 Postby AJC3 » Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:52 am

1900hurricane wrote:Should this be merged with the old Iris thread?


Done, albeit 10 days later. :lol: :lol:

This is, without a doubt, the shortest thread in the history of S2K about a tropical entity that has lasted EIGHTEEN (coming up on 19) full days, and counting...
1 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SouthPAC: ex-IRIS

#20 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:33 pm

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 12 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 15 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris remains in the far northern Coral Sea, east of Papua New Guinea. The system is expected to move slowly westwards during the next few days. There is only a low chance it will redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low





ABPW10 PGTW 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112200Z-120600ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 151.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, A 112003Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC WITH MINIMAL
ORGANIZATION. RMNTS 17P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED
OFF FROM DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

https://imgur.com/xPtnl07
Dry air coming off the continent snuffs it out finally says GFS.

conditions on plots not looking conducive for a 3rd life as a cyclone.
http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_ ... =windspeed

http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_ ... l&field=tq

Image

Image


Image
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests