SPAC: JOSIE - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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SPAC: JOSIE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:32 pm

97P INVEST 180330 1200 18.3S 172.3E SHEM 25 1001

Image
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 97P

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:35 pm

Probably a tropical cyclone already honestly.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 97P

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:07 pm

https://i.imgur.com/dvrXLc6.png
https://i.imgur.com/BwvGqqM.png
HWRF
Appears to have a short life as a TS before it becomes a subtropical entity.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC:Tropical Depression TD12F

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:40 am

quator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Saturday 31
st March 2018
Next Issue: 0400 UTC Sunday 01
st April 2018
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi.
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil.
Tropical Depression TD12F centre [999hpa] was analysed near 17.6S 174.0E at 3pm today.
TD12F is expected to further intensify while moving in an east-southeast direction and pass just
south of Fiji tonight into early tomorrow. It has HIGH potential to develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next three days.
Likelihood for any other tropical cyclone formation in the region in each of the next three days,
till Tuesday 3
rd April, 2018:
Sunday 01
st April
Tropical Depression TD12F is expected to lie in the shaded region southwest of Fiji and has HIGH
potential of developing into a tropical cyclone. The potential for formation of a Tropical Cyclone in the
region from another system is VERY LOWImage.


Image
Sat 20:20 EDT
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Re: SPAC: JOSIE - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby wxman57 » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:46 am

Upgraded to TC Josie by Fiji:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 311404 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSIE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 175.7E AT
311200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON ON 0.40 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING 3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 19.1S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 19.7S 178.4E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 20.5S 179.2E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 21.5S 179.8E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JOSIE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
312000 UTC.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC: JOSIE - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:56 pm

Has been a bad one. GFS don't look very good for em either atm
https://imgur.com/dfuwgAl
.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-02/t ... ji/9610000



Image
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