ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Post-Tropical

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#21 Postby djones65 » Thu May 17, 2018 8:36 pm

Looking back at NRL site... the eye-like feature was only present between 06-09Z. I wanted to correct that.
Also, as is normal for tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean... they are quite frequently "under-estimated" in intensity. As Sagar was likely a cyclone long before officially designated in my humble opinion.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#22 Postby Ed_2001 » Thu May 17, 2018 10:53 pm

01A SAGAR 180518 0000 11.9N 46.4E IO 50 985
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#23 Postby Ed_2001 » Thu May 17, 2018 10:59 pm

Image
Bizarre little system. By the way, I’ve been lurking around storm2k for a year and I really enjoy and appreciate the discussion going on here :)
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 18, 2018 12:20 am

I wonder if it can take a northward curve and get into the red sea? That would be really cool.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#25 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 18, 2018 2:52 am

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#26 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri May 18, 2018 4:35 am

Impressive...

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Also a faint eye-feature on VIS imagery.

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#27 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri May 18, 2018 5:42 am

A bulls-eye ASCAT pass around 06Z today also shows sustained-winds of at least 50kts, supporting the current estimate of agencies.

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01A SAGAR 180518 0600 11.6N 45.9E IO 50 995
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#28 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri May 18, 2018 5:54 am

Model guidance shows rainfall accumulations greater than 200mm(8in) from Sagar.

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#29 Postby Alyono » Fri May 18, 2018 6:41 am

a clear eye has formed. This is at least 70 kts. IMD woefully weak AGAIN
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 18, 2018 7:15 am

Image

Closeup of the expected landfall...Right into the desert...
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 18, 2018 7:16 am

Image

Midget cyclone...
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#32 Postby Alyono » Fri May 18, 2018 7:53 am

does not look like this will hit many people
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 18, 2018 12:21 pm

This is likely a hurricane given it's structure.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#34 Postby Alyono » Fri May 18, 2018 12:43 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:This is likely a hurricane given it's structure.


agreed. I am not sure what JTWC or IMD is looking at to determine their T numbers
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#35 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 18, 2018 3:44 pm

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#36 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri May 18, 2018 4:59 pm

The fresh ASCAT pass shows 55-60 kt wind barbs, so it is probably a Category 1 cyclone now (and it likely was in the daytime already).

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#37 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri May 18, 2018 9:38 pm

The IMD massively underestimating a storm? No way...
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#38 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat May 19, 2018 5:13 am

Sagar is making a very rare landfall, or has made landfall, over western Somalia, not too far from the border with Djibouti this Saturday morning/noon (Somali and Djibouti time).

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The last tropical cyclone to reach this portion of the Gulf of Aden was Tropical Storm 01A of May 1984, and also made landfall a little east of where Sagar is making landfall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Nort ... one_season
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 19, 2018 7:51 am

Image
Image

Underestimated at landfall...
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Cyclonic Storm

#40 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 19, 2018 5:50 pm

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