ARABIAN SEA: MEKUNU - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Saw this same mistake in a bulletin they issued yesterday...
Seriously, they should fix it ASAP!

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a Category 1 on the SSHS...

02A MEKUNU 180523 1200 12.0N 56.0E IO 65 974

[Alyono]

Saw this same mistake in a bulletin they issued yesterday...
Seriously, they should fix it ASAP!

isnt this affecting southeast Yemen?

[cycloneye]

@JMGarciaRivera
#Cyclone #Mekunu has reach US-equivalent Cat-1 #hurricane intensity of 65kts (JTWC bulletin)... SAB has it at 4.5/77kts. Clear eye/eyewall evident on MW. Approaching #Oman, #Yemen and SE #SaudiArabia. Passing just east of Socotra Island.

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/999315070940340226

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.1N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.1N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.6N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT BANDING
CONVECTION AROUND TC 02A WHICH IS NO LONGER EXHIBITING AN EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 231200Z METEOSAT-8
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS TC 02A HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 230949Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 66
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TC 02A IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN VERY WARM (31-32 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AND WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02A WILL
CONTINUE TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 02A TO TRACK MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES LAND. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR JUST WEST OF SALALAH, OMAN NEAR TAU 60
WITH WINDS NEAR 80 KNOTS. BY TAU 72 THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE TO 55
KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BY TAU 96 TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AS THE INTENSITY DECREASES TO 30 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL A LARGE
MODEL SPREAD OF 110 NM AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

TPIO10 PGTW 231452

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU)

B. 23/1430Z

C. 12.16N

D. 55.92E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. 1.00 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[Yellow Evan]

Much better than I thought.

[StruThiO]

https://i.imgur.com/r2C9cWc.gif

Wow, this could be pretty bad. Hope it doesn't directly hit that fairly large city

[NotoSans]

Up to 70 and 75 knots from the IMD and JTWC respectively.

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.6N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.0N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.3N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD SYMMETRY AROUND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY A 231714Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
POSITION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 231716Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BETWEEN THE PGTW, KNES, AND SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 TO 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (OVER 31
CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC 02A WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE CYCLONE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. TC 02A WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

fairly high death toll on Socotra

[doomhaMwx]

Saw this same mistake in a bulletin they issued yesterday...
Seriously, they should fix it ASAP!

isnt this affecting southeast Yemen?

It's gonna come ashore near/over northeast Yemen, not southeast.

[AJC3]

Saw this same mistake in a bulletin they issued yesterday...
Seriously, they should fix it ASAP!

isnt this affecting southeast Yemen?

It's gonna come ashore near/over northeast Yemen, not southeast.

To me, northeast Yemen would not be anywhere along it's south coast. If someone asked me to point to northeast Yemen on a map, I would put my fingertip on the triple point with Yemen, KSA and Oman. I think a better reference would be to use "upper" versus "lower" Yemeni coast. But I guess it all depends upon how it is perceived by the locals there. This same sort of difficulty happens with references to the Texas coast.

[doomhaMwx]

Major major rain-related impacts incoming...The GFS and ECMWF models predict rainfall amounts from Mekunu reaching as high as 500-800mm(20-34in) in the coastal areas of Oman's Dhofar governorate, and amounts also reaching/exceeding 200mm(8in) in the eastern sections of Yemen's Al Mahrah and Hadramawat governorates. The part of Saudi Arabia that is close to the Oman-Yemen border may also some rainfall-related impacts.

[doomhaMwx]

"Eight people were missing and hundreds of others evacuated from their homes as Cyclone Mekunu hit Yemen’s island of Socotra on Wednesday night. Four of the missing were crew on board a boat that sank in the Arabian Sea and are suspected to be dead. At least three vessels have gone off the radar, a source told The National. The cyclone has caused severe flooding and damage to houses, bringing with it strong winds and thunderstorms.The situation is extremely critical."
https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/e ... d-1.733447





Link: https://youtu.be/yWiBm0m-jFE

[euro6208]

isnt this affecting southeast Yemen?

It's gonna come ashore near/over northeast Yemen, not southeast.

To me, northeast Yemen would not be anywhere along it's south coast. If someone asked me to point to northeast Yemen on a map, I would put my fingertip on the triple point with Yemen, KSA and Oman. I think a better reference would be to use "upper" versus "lower" Yemeni coast. But I guess it all depends upon how it is perceived by the locals there. This same sort of difficulty happens with references to the Texas coast.

Northeast Yemen is north or away from coast. The Southeast is facing the Arabian Sea near the Oman border.

[euro6208]

Good thing it is forecast to weaken before landfall but near a major city Salalah...

[Alyono]

Good thing it is forecast to weaken before landfall but near a major city Salalah...

I would not trust the jtwc forecast at all

I see nothing to weaken this before landfall. That forecast is not very good, in my professional opinion

Expect at least 100 kts at landfall

[FireRat]

Hemisphere View Showing Mekunu in the upper left quadrant on May 24 2018...the image will update itself often, so it will always show the latest images.

[Yellow Evan]

This is bombing out.