ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro's a tad more east but definitely stronger through 72 hours.

[gatorcane]

That shift east puts the west coast of Florida in some nasty weather this weekend. Are the east shifts done is the question?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the Euro is about to swing wnw again..

[caneman]

UKMET is an unlikely outlier with 90L.

Not that I am buying into the UKMET solution, but it is one of the better performing models.

nailed irma's path over florida if i remember right

It most definitely did. I believe it was the most accurate or 2nd most accurate.

[SunnyThoughts]

Do you guys think this has a chance to become a low end hurricane? I saw earlier in the thread where the last time a hurricane actually hit the US in May was in the 1800's if I remember correctly. Hopefully we don't see that happen. The rain is going to be enough to deal with concerning this system.

[CrazyC83]

This setup may be reminiscent of Debby 2012? Ridge blocking an inland path, but unclear which way it rides around?

[gatorcane]

Wow Euro down to 991MB at hour 96 approaching northern Gulf coast

[Aric Dunn]

man conditions rapidly change with the models all of a sudden from 72 to 96 hours.. it started to bomb out with the euro nearly a hurricane heading to NO

[cycloneye]

Euro stronger and turns left.

[caneman]

12Z UKMET shifts east and is weaker:

[]https://i.imgur.com/3EVsqkc.gif[/img]

The Ukie has earned its stripes in the past as a trend setter. I remember with IRMA it was one of the first to show a more westerly move toward the gulf. I did not verify but it started moving the other models in a trend in that direction. Interesting to see what happens.

That is correct. It's one that I now watch closely and is usually the western outlier so a bit concerning for us on the west coast

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS and ECMWF look identical to each other in terms of position and strength at 96 hours. Looks to be a ~60-65mph TS.

[gatorcane]

12Z FV3 GFS looks to have shifted west a tad but has a "hot mess" still scraping the west coast of Florida:

[gatorcane]

looks like the models are zoning in on northern Gulf coast for landfall but what we have to watch is as the system makes the NE to NNE to N the NW turn in the Eastern Gulf (a reverse recurve so to speak), just how far east it gets. A center reformation or two to the east could mean a big difference as far as the impacts to the FL peninsula are concerned. It is not like the system is going to just head straight north into the Central GOM from the Yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro sim radar....hmmm

[Aric Dunn]

looks like 70 to 80 kts...
hmmmm

[CrazyC83]

looks like 70 to 80 kts...
hmmmm

That's at about 100 m above the surface. That would be 50-60 kt at the surface.

[Ivanhater]

This is not looking like a nuisance..This could be bigger

[ava_ati]

looks like the models are zoning in on northern Gulf coast for landfall but what we have to watch is as the system makes the NE to NNE to N the NW turn in the Eastern Gulf (a reverse recurve so to speak), just how far east it gets. A center reformation or two to the east could mean a big difference as far as the impacts to the FL peninsula are concerned. It is not like the system is going to just head straight north into the Central GOM from the Yucatan.

Pretty amazing agreement in the models now after being so far apart as recently as yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like 70 to 80 kts...
hmmmm

That's at about 100 m above the surface. That would be 50-60 kt at the surface.

with that structure... and partial eyewall I bet that would be working to the surface..

[SunnyThoughts]

This is not looking like a nuisance..This could be bigger

Yeah Ivan, a little concern starting to creep in that its more than just rain someone is going to have to deal with.