WPAC: EWINIAR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 012124

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (W OF PALAWAN)

B. 01/2100Z

C. 11.26N

D. 113.88E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

TXPQ24 KNES 012122
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 10.4N

D. 113.1E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 115.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY
273 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LLCC. A 010200Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER PALAWAN ISLAND AND
NOW HAS BROKEN AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF IMPROVING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). WARM SSTS (29-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT 99W
WILL ASSUME A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DEVELOP WITHIN 24
HOURS, HOWEVER, THE UKMO AND JGSM ARE NOT CURRENTLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Location: 11.7°N 113.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

[Twisted-core]

JMA
TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 2 June 2018

[cycloneye]

JMA
TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 2 June 2018

TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 2 June 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 June>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°20' (10.3°)
E113°00' (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E112°00' (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 020311
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 02/0230Z

C. 12.5N

D. 111.4E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...PBO CSC BECAUSE NO DISCERNIBLE CLOSED LLCC COULD BE FOUND
WITH THE SYSTEM IN EITHER MICROWAVE OR ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY, WHICH
SHOWED AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 020028

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (W OF PALAWAN)

B. 02/0000Z

C. 11.56N

D. 113.38E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[Twisted-core]

JMA
TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 2 June 2018

TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 2 June 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 June>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°20' (10.3°)
E113°00' (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E112°00' (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 10.3N 113.0E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD IS LOCATED AT 10.3N, 113.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR
BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

[Sciencerocks]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

05W FIVE 180602 0600 12.3N 112.2E WPAC 25 1004

Now upgraded to the 5th TC of the season.

[doomhaMwx]

Tropical Depression 05W

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SUSTAINED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020238Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
LIMITED BANDING AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. A
020140Z METOP-A SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 25-30 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH, WEST, AND SOUTH. BASED ON THE
LACK OF A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE POSITION OF THE LLCC, THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 05W IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS AS IT FOLLOWS THIS TRACK AS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE
EXCEPTION, WITH ITS TRACK EAST OF THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE FACT THAT ECMWF IS THE
OUTLIER LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE
BORDER BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA AS A 40 KNOT CYCLONE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME MEMBERS
ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND OTHER MODELS
PREDICTING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. AS
FOR INTENSITY, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY LIMITED
OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY DURING THIS
PERIOD. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO has this thing sitting over Hainan Island and the surrounding areas for a whole week...7 days to be exact. GFS...5 days.

[Sciencerocks]

[euro6208]

HWRF very limited strengthening. A strong TS at best.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021056Z SSMIS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SOME
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND THE 021200Z PGTW DVORAK FIX POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T1.0-
T1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 05W IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT STARTS TO ROUND THE STR BY TAU 72. DURING
THIS PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS FAIRLY LARGE LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE
BORDER BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA AS A 45 KNOT CYCLONE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME MEMBERS ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND
OTHER MODELS PREDICTING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS
IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS WHICH SLOWS THE SYSTEM AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AROUND
THE STR. SIMILARLY, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS QUITE SPREAD OUT WITH
COAMPS FORECASTING AN 80 KNOT INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND HWRF FORECASTING 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY BY TAU 120.
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF SOLUTION. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 05W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
NEAR TERM. THE RIDGE TO NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT TO THE EAST AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, PREVENTING EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO PEAK OF 30 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST HOWEVER, THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL VARIATIONS IN BOTH
DIRECTION AND SPEED. IN LIGHT OF THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE
IS OVER ALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALSO AROUND TAU 72, THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS. TD 05W
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SPREADS INCREASINGLY BEYOND TAU 72. GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS HAVE
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING AND RECURVING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
LONG-TERM. ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND TRACKING MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT RECURVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIASED SLIGHTLY TOWARD TO ECMWF
SOLUTION. AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED THE PEAK
INTENSITY WITH BOTH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC BOTH PEAKING THE SYSTEM BELOW
40 KNOTS. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 022107
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 13.4N

D. 110.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
CONVECTION WRAPS ALMOST .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET AS BANDING FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER