EPAC: ALETTA - Post-Tropical

[Twisted-core]

May become a mature major boarder-line cat4 peak over the weekend.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

EP, 91, 2018060512, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1040W, 25, 1008, LO

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912018  06/05/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    31    34    42    55    67    76    81    84    84    82    77
V (KT) LAND       25    27    31    34    42    55    67    76    81    84    84    82    77
V (KT) LGEM       25    28    30    32    35    40    45    50    56    61    63    63    60
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     8     8     8     8     8     5     3    12    17    12     8     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     0     2     4     0     2     3     2     3     5     2     2    13
SHEAR DIR        305   282   265   278   324   296   287    17     4    39    70   110   151
SST (C)         30.3  30.1  29.9  29.8  29.7  29.7  29.6  28.8  27.8  28.5  27.8  26.9  26.4
POT. INT. (KT)   167   165   163   162   160   157   160   153   143   145   142   132   125
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.3 -50.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.7   0.7   0.6   0.6   0.8   0.9
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9     8     7     7     7     6     5     5     5     3     2
700-500 MB RH     74    72    73    73    74    75    77    69    66    73    80    71    66
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    13    15    15    19    23    26    29    32    35    35    37    38
850 MB ENV VOR    -7    -5     5     2     4     3    23    42    56    63    75    94   116
200 MB DIV        61    98   127   122   130   123   101    32     2    52    48    56    -1
700-850 TADV      -4    -4    -6    -8    -4    -5    -6    -6    -7    -2     0     1     0
LAND (KM)        570   535   547   585   646   692   636   598   820   973   861   751   741
LAT (DEG N)     13.0  13.5  13.7  13.7  13.4  13.1  13.7  15.0  14.9  13.9  14.8  16.6  17.2
LONG(DEG W)    104.0 104.6 105.3 106.0 106.6 106.9 106.9 108.3 111.1 112.1 111.5 112.6 113.7
STM SPEED (KT)     7     7     7     6     5     1     7    12    11     2     9     8     5
HEAT CONTENT      84    68    56    52    57    65    48    17    26    26    27     8     2

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/  6      CX,CY:  -2/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  632  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  28.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           35.3

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -2.  -0.   5.  14.  22.  28.  31.  33.  34.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   4.   3.   4.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -8.  -6.  -5.  -5.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     1.   2.   3.   8.  14.  18.  23.  27.  30.  29.  28.  27.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   5.   4.   2.   2.   2.   1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   6.   9.  17.  30.  42.  51.  56.  59.  59.  57.  52.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   13.0   104.0

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST     06/05/18  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.41           3.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   138.2      40.5  to  149.3       0.90           5.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     7.8      18.9  to    1.4       0.64           5.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    63.4       0.0  to  106.7       0.59           3.8
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   107.6     -33.0  to  156.2       0.74           3.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    28.9      37.8  to    2.1       0.25           1.4
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00          -1.6
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.4       2.2  to   -1.9       0.64           0.4
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    52.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.84           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  26% is   1.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   2.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  31% is   3.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  43% is   5.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   25.9%   22.4%    0.0%    0.0%   30.8%   43.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     3.4%   15.9%   11.2%    8.2%    3.5%   29.3%   42.3%   31.5%
    Bayesian:     4.2%    6.2%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%    0.8%   21.9%   44.4%
   Consensus:     2.5%   16.0%   11.3%    2.7%    1.2%   20.3%   35.7%   25.3%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST     06/05/18  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

First visible image of this day:

[gatorcane]

Looks to be organizing:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF does next to nothing with this now.

[Alyono]

ECMWF does next to nothing with this now.

???

it makes it a borderline hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF does next to nothing with this now.

???

it makes it a borderline hurricane

meh I guess that's a 992mbar but this didn't look like a hurricane with just a few closed isobars (and that's the view I was looking at the run from stupid me I guess).

[hurricanes1234]

90% or 100% by 11 am update, I would imagine.

[cycloneye]

100%-100%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
becoming better organized. In addition, satellite images indicate
that the circulation of the system is now better defined. Continued
development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a
tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

This appears to be developing quickly so I think it will be stronger than what the Euro is showing.

[cycloneye]

12z EC is a little bit stronger than 00z.

[Kazmit]

How rare are EPac major hurricanes in June?

[Yellow Evan]

How rare are EPac major hurricanes in June?

They're not rare. We've seen five majors this decade.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912018 06/05/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 42 55 64 71 79 83 83 81 77
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 42 55 64 71 79 83 83 81 77
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 35 39 45 51 57 62 64 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 4 4 11 6 9 12 14 7 6 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 2 2 5 0 6 10 4 -3 2 11
SHEAR DIR 296 269 277 323 335 282 298 338 34 60 109 133 178
SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.7 27.7 28.6 28.8 27.1 26.7 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 159 160 162 153 143 149 153 136 129 128
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 6 7 4 3 4
700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 75 76 74 69 61 68 80 76 64 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 21 25 27 29 33 35 36 36 37
850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 1 4 5 15 45 51 60 48 88 98 112
200 MB DIV 99 123 132 131 153 93 57 12 33 55 58 26 13
700-850 TADV -4 -9 -9 -5 -3 -9 -5 -7 -4 -2 -1 0 2
LAND (KM) 552 564 622 673 711 609 513 720 971 877 727 750 785
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 13.6 13.3 12.9 13.5 15.4 15.5 13.7 13.6 16.3 16.9 16.6
LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.8 106.5 106.9 106.9 106.1 107.5 110.4 111.9 110.6 111.1 113.3 113.4
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 3 8 13 14 7 10 14 7 2
HEAT CONTENT 64 50 52 59 68 57 18 18 30 48 16 3 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 37.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 16. 18. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 17. 30. 39. 46. 54. 58. 58. 56. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 105.0

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 5.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 6.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.55 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 4.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.4% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 34.0% 39.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.0% 37.8% 28.6% 21.0% 11.3% 43.3% 55.1% 32.4%
Bayesian: 3.2% 24.0% 6.8% 1.7% 0.4% 7.0% 16.0% 17.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 30.7% 20.0% 7.6% 3.9% 28.1% 36.9% 16.5%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

05/1745 UTC 12.3N 105.3W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Looks good on MW and Satellite. Should be a TD by today.

[Kingarabian]

Going to miss the SSD floaters. So simple to use...

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Invest #91E has a typical elongated circulation as it develops within the monsoon trough, but will soon pinch off and become more symmetric. Environmental conditions favor intensification for the next few days.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1004073081734946822

[hurricanes1234]

No upgrade yet.

[Yellow Evan]

No upgrade yet.

It's arguably not classifiable yet. Give it 12 more hours.