EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922018 06/09/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 78 85 88 83 80 73 65
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 78 85 88 83 80 73 65
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 52 64 76 82 79 72 63 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 13 14 9 7 8 12 11 7 6 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 6 1 1 2 -2 4 2 2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 33 18 19 26 29 4 92 78 61 50 44 46 339
SST (C) 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.3 30.0 29.4 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 168 165 158 149 142 137 131 122 113 102
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 86 85 85 82 79 77 74 68 65 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 25 29 30 31 29 29 27 23
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -1 -5 -10 6 16 3 22 45 62 63 59 46
200 MB DIV 121 169 182 154 118 112 155 99 134 100 66 9 8
700-850 TADV -8 -10 -13 -10 -8 -13 -9 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -1
LAND (KM) 534 517 500 478 437 404 408 421 456 474 473 455 370
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 3 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 39 47 60 64 43 17 10 7 6 4 2 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 63.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. -0. 6. 13. 20. 25. 28. 28. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 9. 15. 16. 18. 15. 14. 10. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 33. 48. 55. 58. 53. 50. 43. 35.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 101.4

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 5.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.47 3.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.96 5.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -26.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.93 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 46.0% 24.7% 20.7% 0.0% 26.5% 48.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 19.4% 68.3% 45.3% 26.9% 15.7% 64.6% 69.3% 48.1%
Bayesian: 3.1% 48.6% 18.4% 7.4% 3.4% 14.4% 72.9% 27.0%
Consensus: 13.8% 54.3% 29.5% 18.4% 6.4% 35.1% 63.5% 25.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

09/1745 UTC 11.8N 100.5W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 92, 2018060918, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1014W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 210, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[1900hurricane]

I'd say this is ready to be classified.

[Sciencerocks]

Should be Bud by 11pm tonight at the rate it is going...Hurricane within the next 36 hours.

warm ssts
Moderately low shear

Gfs has been pretty accurate when dealing with intensity so far this season so I wouldn't count out cat2 for this system or maybe a little stronger. Depends on how it reacts to the 10-13 knots of shear shown in the ship model above, which also supports this getting up to cat2 intensity.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 101.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance to
the south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface
circulation. One-minute imagery from a GOES-16 mesoscale sector
was useful in determining that the circulation had become closed.
In addition, deep convection has increased near the center today and
a nearly continuous band of cold cloud tops wraps around the
southern and western semicircles of the circulation. The latest
Dvorak classification from TAFB is a 2.0/2.0, and on that basis the
system has been classified as Tropical Depression Three-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/8 kt, but this is rather
uncertain since the surface center of the depression has been often
obscured by higher clouds this afternoon. A west-northwest to
northwest heading, parallel to the coast of Mexico, is likely for
the next few days while the system moves along the periphery of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. Near the end of the forecast
period, the cyclone should slow and turn more toward the north-
northwest, between the aforementioned ridge to the east and a mid-
to upper-level trough to the west. The dynamical guidance is very
tightly clustered, with the main uncertainty being speed. The
official forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF positions
and closely follows the corrected consensus, HCCA.

The depression is located within a generally favorable environment
for strengthening. SSTs are above 30 deg C and there is ample
moisture. The only inhibiting factor appears to be moderate
northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF
models, which should decrease within the next 24 hours. At least
steady strengthening is shown by all of the intensity guidance, and
this seems likely for the next 24 hours. Beyond that time, rapid
intensification can not be ruled out. The official forecast at 36
through 72 h is near the top of the intensity guidance, in close
agreement with the DSHP model. By day 5, the cyclone will likely
approach a sharp SST gradient south of the Baja California peninsula
which should cause it to quickly weaken. By the end of the forecast
period, the NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 12.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.2N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.3N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.4N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 16.2N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[CyclonicFury]

Should be Bud tonight and will likely be the second hurricane of the season. Could even become the second
major hurricane of the season. Conditions appear very favorable.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
By Tuesday, expect Bud to be a hurricane, maybe major off Mexican coast in Eastern Pacific.

[cycloneye]

09/2345 UTC 12.6N 101.5W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track upgrades to TS Bud

EP, 03, 2018061000, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1017W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1010, 210, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, D,

[Kingarabian]

Very impressive outflow in all quadrants.

[hurricanes1234]

Almost looks like a WPAC storm with that fierce, extensive banding and large expanse of cold cloudtops.

[cycloneye]

Aletta was a large system but Bud looks even larger.

[Highteeld]

It would seem that a rapid intensification phase from "Bud" is more likely than not... #EPAC2018

[gatorcane]

Aletta was a large system but Bud looks even larger.

Yeah Bud looks like a very large system that is quickly organizing, floater below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1005615420471152640

[TheProfessor]

Soon to be Bud definitely looking good tonight.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

...TROPICAL STORM BUD FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 102.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 575 MI...920 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved
bands of deep convection developing around the center while the
upper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from
all agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5
supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt
winds in this advisory.

Tropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and
embedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These
conditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what
is indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the
SHIPS model. Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast
strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the
HCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening
should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja
California peninsula.

Bud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The
cyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery
of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and
northern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western
portion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the
northwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and
toward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in
remarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the
confidence in the official forecast.

Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast
of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of
the coast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Highteeld]

So what would be the upper-bound for Bud in 24 hours time? T 5.0 or somewhere in that neighborhood?

[CyclonicFury]

I don't see why Bud will only peak at 90 mph. I think it definitely can become a major. SHIPS guidance often fails to predict RI. With the conditions Bud is in, rapid intensification is possible if not likely on Monday.