EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#221 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:37 am

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150539
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...BUD MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area, in this case within the next 6 hours across Baja California
Sur, and within the next 12 to 24 hours across western Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to continue
moving along the east coast of southern Baja California Sur
overnight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The
weakening cyclone is expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Recent satellite data indicate that these winds are occuring
primarily over water within a small area to the east of the center.
Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday and
dissipate on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should begin to abate during
the next few hours within the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch
area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#222 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:20 am

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

The effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing
shear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a
mid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud
motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level
center has been left behind over or near Baja. The low-level
circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak
convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of
California and northwestern Mexico. An earlier ASCAT pass showed a
few 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the
east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept
at 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening
is anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about
24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of
Sonora.

Now that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial
motion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward
the north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded
within the southerly flow along the western side of a high
pressure ridge. This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the
north until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the
multi-model consensus.

Since the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to
the east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the
watches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for
a portion of the mainland.

Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture
plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into
northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on
Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash
flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Depression

#223 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:50 am

Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to
the northwest of the center. Assuming gradual weakening since the
ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with
those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of
the center. The shear is expected to remain strong through
landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours
and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by
early Saturday.

The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue
moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge
to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its
west.

Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall
and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
by your local weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan/McElroy
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Remnants

#224 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:37 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600
UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640
UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the
coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could
have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken
and then dissipate shortly after landfall.

ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a
bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate
355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through
dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching
longwave trough to the west.

Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant
rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
by your local weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Remnants

#225 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:43 pm

Living in Arizona, we're starting to get some rain associated with Bud. Brings an early start to the monsoon season. We need it though, hasn't rained in a long time.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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