EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

A pinhole eye?

[Yellow Evan]

This - with it's excellent moisture envelope and deep tropical 30C+ origins in low shear aloft with sufficient curve banding - is made for a pinhole eye type structure so it wouldn't shock me. This is the kind of storm I wish we had recon for.

[Ntxw]

I agree this is a good storm for recon. I don't get why they don't when landfall is expected and remnants effecting the southwest. Bet it would likely find a Hurricane right now. It will be a major very quick once that eye is done.

[1900hurricane]

The cirrus covered eye is becoming more apparent on visible imagery.

[Highteeld]

There would appear to be a hot tower in progress on the wsw side of the eye... would be the first one i've seen today on left side of the eye itself -- makes me wonder if we are on the precipice of another RI phase -- esp tonight

[cycloneye]

...ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNDERWAY...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. A
Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
through 48 hours.




Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018


The cloud pattern of Bud has continued to become better organized,
and a ragged eye has become apparent intermittently on visible
images. T-numbers from TAFB and CIMSS have reached 4.0 on the
Dvorak scale, so Bud has been upgraded to hurricane status with 65-
kt winds in this advisory. The environment continues to be quite
favorable for strengthening, while the rapid intensification indexes
continue to be high. On this basis, the NHC forecast, which is very
close to both the corrected consensus HCCA and FSSE models calls for
additional strengthening for the next 24 hours or so. Beyond 48
hours, a steady state or weakening should begin as the cyclone
approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula.

The best estimate of the initial motion continues to be toward
the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the
flow around the periphery of a high pressure system over the western
United States. In about 3 days, Bud is expected to reach the western
edge of the high, and the cyclone should then begin to turn
toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high
confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days since
guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. After that time,
the guidance becomes less reliable, but in general, all models
bring a weakening tropical cyclone over or near Baja California
peninsula.

Although the core of Bud is expected to pass well off the
southwestern coast of Mexico, the hurricane is accompanied by
rainbands mainly to the east of the center. These bands have
the possibility of producing tropical-storm-force winds along
a portion of the coast. Consequently, the Government of Mexico
has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small portion of the coast
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kazmit]

Looks like a Baja threat down the road. It's forecasted to be a TS by then, but we'll have to see how much it intensifies and how well it holds up after that.

[Highteeld]

There would appear to be a hot tower in progress on the wsw side of the eye... would be the first one i've seen today on left side of the eye itself -- makes me wonder if we are on the precipice of another RI phase -- esp tonight

Burst ongoing, and getting very large -- this will be fun to watch for sure

[USTropics]

Beautiful shot of a pulsing Bud, struggling Aletta to hang on, and potentially a 3rd system brewing. Great start to the EPAC, enhanced by the MJO. Images from TropicalTidbits:

[NotSparta]

[MGC]

Bud has an excellent chance to make it to a major hurricane. Conditions look good for takeoff. If Bud tracks on the right side of guidance than those on the Baja Peninsula need to pay attention....MGC

[weathaguyry]

All I can say is that the EPAC is one hell of a basin...

[mrbagyo]

[Kingarabian]

Hot tower after hot tower.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

Fresh SSMIS and GMI passes shows deep convection around the eyewall increasing in the past couple of hours:

SSMIS 2 hours ago:


GMI 1/2 hour ago:

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 03, 2018061100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1046W, 70, 984, HU

[cycloneye]

Time running out for RI? Looks like the percents of RI from SHIP are going down but still there is oportunity.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30%
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40%
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25%

[Yellow Evan]

A little more time than the 12z output suggested. Likely due to a shift east in track,

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BUD EP032018 06/11/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 86 88 89 87 85 76 68 60 52 45
V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 86 88 89 87 85 76 68 60 52 45
V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 84 85 83 77 69 61 54 48 42 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 8 13 10 8 4 2 1 2 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 3 2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -1
SHEAR DIR 42 48 68 80 80 73 78 345 6 174 27 294 297
SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.3 22.5 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 152 148 142 134 128 123 114 105 94 86 85
200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.3 -50.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 3
700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 77 79 75 74 70 67 63 65 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 25 25 25 25 26 23 21 20 17 15
850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 13 13 25 31 60 54 65 53 54 28 29
200 MB DIV 81 82 103 120 132 94 80 73 79 44 23 -14 -14
700-850 TADV -8 -10 -7 -6 -4 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 317 308 309 295 291 291 292 280 297 247 122 23 1
LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.8 23.1 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.5 109.2 109.9 110.4 110.7
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 17 14 11 9 8 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 6. -2. -10. -18. -25.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.7 104.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 2.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 30.4% 40.2% 25.0% 21.8% 18.6% 20.5% 15.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 21.5% 26.0% 15.2% 13.5% 7.4% 10.6% 3.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 29.8% 40.6% 20.4% 13.9% 4.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Consensus: 27.2% 35.6% 20.2% 16.4% 10.2% 11.3% 6.5% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 03, 201806102345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1560N, 10450W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JF, VIM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.5 PT=3.5 FTBO DT

SAB in JTWC mode.