WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

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WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#1 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:07 pm

93W INVEST 180612 0000 16.0N 118.0E WPAC 15 NA

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:57 am

93W INVEST 180612 0600 20.4N 117.1E WPAC 20 1001

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:12 am

JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FLARING
CONVECTION WITH A 120130Z MHS METOP-A MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALING THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE INVEST AREA. A
120228Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS IS INCONCLUSIVE IN IDENTIFYING A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. INVEST 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS, AND WARM SSTS (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE IN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IT MEETING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA BEFORE MAKING A SLIGHT TURN TO TRACK
JUST EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:40 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.2N 116.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.1E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION AND A 1201026Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE FORECASTED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL UNCERTAIN. INVEST 93W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AND WARM SSTS (28-29C).
GLOBAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA BEFORE MAKING A SLIGHT TURN TO TRACK
JUST EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:29 pm

TCFA.
That escalated quickly


WTPN21 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 118.5E TO 26.7N 127.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 130130Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 120.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 118.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 120.3E, APPROXIMATELY
510 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAIU FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 122236Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. A RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE AND MULTIPLE SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH
SOME ISOLATED 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR OKINAWA AS IT MERGES WITH THE BAIU FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140200Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#6 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:42 pm

This system has been upgraded by JTWC to TD 07W; meanwhile, JMA classified it as an extratropical low

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 24N 124E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW FOR NEXT 24
HOURS.

not too extratropical I would say
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:48 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM A
RECENT FLARE UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 07W MOVES
CLOSER TO THE POLAR FRONT JET (PFJ) TO ITS NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 131724Z 88.2GHZ ATMS
IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, BUT LITTLE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TD 07W IS LOCATED ON THE BOUNDARY OF THE
STATIONARY BAIU FRONT WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOCATED IN THIS
AREA, AND BEGAN AS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC SHEAR BETWEEN THE BAIU FRONT
AND SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE. 07W IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. A 131320Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT
WINDS CLOSE IN TO THE CENTER, AND A SHRINKING RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS AND INCREASED SYMMETRY IN THE WIND FIELD, INDICATIVE OF
INCREASED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A CIRA AMSU-B CROSS SECTION AT
130900Z REVEALS A WARM-CORE ANOMALY IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE, ALSO
INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A MORE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (29-30 C), SUPPORTING THE TROPICAL
ASSESSMENT OF 07W AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE PFJ IS DIRECTLY TO THE
NORTH OF 07W AND 07W IS POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS, IT STILL DISPLAYS
EQUATORWARD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, FUELING LIMITED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ALREADY DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF 07W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TD 07W WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PFJ WESTERLY FLOW. TD 07W IS
EXPECTED TO IMMEDIATELY BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BY TAU 12. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
07W WILL DISPLAY INCREASING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD, AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 35 KTS AS 07W TAPS INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, TEMPORARILY ENHANCING OUTFLOW, BEFORE 07W SLIDES UNDER
THE JET ALTOGETHER. ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AFTER 07W
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS DUE TO TIGHT AGREEMENT IN
MODEL TRACKERS THAT 07W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF KADENA WHILE
ACCELERATING. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#8 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:43 pm

This is NOT officially a tropical depression. JTWC is unofficial. The only TD is the one SW of Taiwan
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:51 pm

Some believable 25 to 30 knots close to the center.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:02 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:06 pm

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.


https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/tropical-depression-07w-3-1.532461
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:27 pm

Image

Another weak short lived TS. Upgrade based on direct observation.

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC JUST TO THE WEST OF A SMALL
FLARE OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 132244Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION, MOST OF IT FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 35 KTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS OF 27 KTS, 995MB, FROM 60 NM AWAY AT THE SHIMOJI SHIMA
ISLAND STATION AS 07W PROPAGATED AWAY.
07W IS TRACKING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ACCELERATING AS IT
MOVES UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. A CIRA AMSU-B CROSS SECTION
AT 132000Z REVEALS THE WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (29-30 C), SUPPORTING THE TROPICAL ASSESSMENT OF 07W AT THIS
TIME. WHILE 07W IS MOVING UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET, IT STILL
DISPLAYS EQUATORWARD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, FUELING LIMITED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ALREADY SHEARING 07WS CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF ITS LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST, CARRIED ALONG WITH THE JET. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO
IMMEDIATELY BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BY TAU 12. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 07W WILL
DISPLAY INCREASING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD,
AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AT A
MARGINAL 35 KTS AS 07W MOVES UNDER THE JET. THE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AT TAU 24 AND BEYOND WILL OCCUR DUE TO
EXTRATROPICAL PROCESSES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS
DUE TO TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACKERS THAT 07W WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AND GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
DUE TO THE JET WHILE ACCELERATING. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:31 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#14 Postby Twisted-core » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:58 pm

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.8N 118.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 118.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.]
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:15 pm

It's definitely Mei-yu Season. It's not terribly rare to see a system form out of the Mei-yu, and this is about as pretty as they get.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:28 pm

Comma shaped with a nice band to the east. Expected to pass 61 miles northwest of Kadena later today. Naha reporting 998.6 while kumejima south of it at 996.9.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:14 am

Image

Quite windy down there.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:35 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 140636Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 140147Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 35 KNOT WIND BARBS AND A WIND FIELD THAT IS BECOMING
ASYMMETRIC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W IS EXPERIENCING
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS). HOWEVER, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS
07W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM CORE SYSTEM BUT IS ALSO BECOMING
ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE JET STREAM AND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AS
IT RAPIDLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET
STREAM. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TS 07W WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:43 am

Lowest pressure recorded in Naha is 996.8 while Nago, located on the northern part of the island, recorded 996.5.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 07W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:51 am

How on earth did official JMA ignored direct observation and ASCAT?

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06141001
SATCON: MSLP = 988 hPa MSW = 43 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 41.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 50 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 120 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 992 hPa 32 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUN141040
CIMSS AMSU: 991 hPa 32 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 06140726
ATMS: 997.4 hPa 33.5 knots Date: 06140527
SSMIS: 984.0 hPa 48.0 knots Date: 06141001
CIRA ATMS: 1001 hPa 27 knots Date: 06140527
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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